Byron King's 2019 Belmont Stakes analysis

TACITUS is the probable winner of the Belmont. He shows the ideal preparation for this 1 1/2-mile test, starting in the Derby, where he was placed third on the disqualification of Maximum Security, before skipping the Preakness – preparation used by Belmont winners Tapwrit (2017) and Creator (2016) in recent years.

By Tapit out of multiple Grade 1 winner Close Hatches, he has the pedigree for Belmont Stakes success. Sons of Tapit have won the Belmont three times over the last five years – Tapwrit, Creator, and Tonalist (2014).

Winner of the Tampa Bay Derby and Wood Memorial, he proved a threat in the Derby despite tossing his head when close behind rivals early, but it was his stretch determination that was most noteworthy. When juvenile champion Game Winner, the fifth-place finisher via disqualification, came alongside him in the stretch, he outfought that classy colt, hitting the wire as one of the Derby’s strongest finishers.

SPINOFF and INTREPID HEART are value-priced colts to toss underneath Tacitus in the exotics. They are trained by Todd Pletcher, who has trained three Belmont winners – Rags to Riches (2007), Palace Malice (2013), and Tapwrit. He also has been second in the race five times and third three times.

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Spinoff, the Louisiana Derby runner-up who was 18th in the Derby, should appreciate the opportunity to race over a fast track in the Belmont after sputtering in the slop in Louisville. Sunny, dry conditions are forecasted Saturday.

One need only examine the last few years of Belmont history to find horses that rebounded from distant losses in the Derby to win the Belmont. Tapwrit and Creator did so, taking this race after losing the Derby by more than 10 lengths and 18 lengths, respectively.

Pletcher’s other entrant, Intrepid Heart, adds blinkers after a third in the Peter Pan in which he stumbled at the break. A winner of his prior two starts, he is another son of key Belmont sire Tapit.

As for WAR OF WILL, he is an obvious contender, though a colt that enjoyed a perfect trip in winning the Preakness. He drafted right behind three front-runners, saved ground, and slipped through an opening nearing the stretch. Trip aside, he seems a quality horse, with prior wins in the Lecomte and Risen Star and a close, impeded seventh-place finish in the Derby.