Bolt d'Oro, Good Magic, Justify coming off strong first crops

A competitive group of young stallions gets right back at it with their respective second crops to the sale rings and racetracks in 2023, as meanwhile, their first crops eye classic glory.

Grade 1 winner Bolt d’Oro, champion Good Magic, and Triple Crown winner Justify, who squared off several times throughout their careers in 2017-18, all entered stud in 2019, with Bolt d’Oro, by Medaglia d’Oro, taking up residence at Spendthrift Farm; Good Magic standing alongside sire Curlin at Hill ‘n’ Dale; and Justify retiring to Coolmore’s Ashford Stud, where his late sire, Scat Daddy, resided.

The three young stallions finished in that order on the 2022 freshman earnings list, separated by a total of just $337,585 in earnings – a narrow margin, considering the purse structures at many major venues. Each sire recorded six stakes winners on the season as Bolt d’Oro and Justify each recorded 29 individual winners; Good Magic had 21 while having fewer starters.

Before achieving these successes, Bolt d’Oro tipped his hand early, with savvy owners and bloodstock agents keying in on his first crop to make him a breakout success. Bolt d’Oro recorded multiple seven-figure sales from his first foals to auction in 2021 and early 2022. His juvenile sales average last year was $240,520, more than nine times the conception stud fee of $25,000.

“The response [was] really a little overwhelming,” Spendthrift general manager Ned Toffey said. “But really, from the beginning we had breeders calling and raving about their foals, and then their yearlings, and it’s continued right on through. . . . One after another, people see an impressive breeze, and look down and say, ‘Wow, that’s another Bolt d’Oro.’ ”

The freshman class of 2022 may, statistically speaking, face an uphill market battle with its 2023 juveniles, however. It’s typical for a young stallion to garner an outstanding book of mares in his first season as his stud farm and supporters look to get him off to a strong start. The commercial market then responds to this quality of pedigree, among other factors. But then the quality and quantity of his book of mares may decrease somewhat in the ensuing few years, only picking up again later if the stallion’s first crops are a success on the racetrack. This also leads to a curve in the stallion’s commercial results in that time frame.

Of the nine freshman earnings leaders preceding Bolt d’Oro, five showed a drop in average juvenile sale price between their first and second seasons. This includes Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, whose average price dropped by 60 percent with the same number of horses sold. The two extreme outliers from the decreasing price trend are Quality Road and Nyquist. Quality Road’s average jumped by 137 percent, although he had half as many horses sold in his second season, creating a supply-and-demand imbalance. Nyquist, with many more juveniles sold in his second season, saw his average soar 221 percent.

While these gaudy numbers are outliers, this year’s second-year class does have the credentials to buck the trend. Although the 2022 freshman earnings leaders all bred fewer mares in their second season, they all have quality mares behind them from their respective connections.

Bolt d’Oro covered 214 mares in his first season and 146 in his second, according to The Jockey Club’s Report of Mares Bred. The latter group included Spendthrift’s Hall of Famer Beholder.

Good Magic, who bred books of 164 mares and 142 mares in his first two seasons, is supported by racing co-owner Stonestreet Farm and its star-studded broodmare band.

Justify, whose book sizes were 252 and 222, has access to Coolmore’s accomplished broodmare bands on both sides of the Atlantic and has had early international success.