The winter meet at Gulfstream Park has traditionally been a key meet, often attracting the best horses on the East Coast. Almost every big trainer on the New York Racing Association circuit sends a string of horses down to Florida, plus there are the lower-profile trainers who are stabled in Florida year-round. DRF Formulator gives you full access to all of a trainer’s runners over the past five years, allowing you to analyze patterns and unearth angles that have paid very well. Let’s use Formulator to look at some bigger trainers along with some smaller Florida-based stables. Which are the best betting opportunities and which are best to avoid? Below are a few of our favorites, but we encourage you to use Formulator to find your own. Todd Pletcher: A perennial contender for the Eclipse Award for top trainer, Pletcher is arguably the biggest-name trainer in the sport today. He has averaged almost 1,000 starters per year over the past five years, and about one-fifth of those starters have come at Gulfstream Park. His horses are nearly always contenders, and they nearly always get bet, with more than 40 percent of his runners in the past five years at Gulfstream going off as the post-time favorite. • Bet This: Pletcher at Gulfstream in dirt-route stakes races. Over the past five years, Pletcher has had 57 starters in dirt-route stakes races at Gulfstream; he’s won 25 of those races and hit the board with nearly three-quarters of those starters. In dirt-route graded stakes, he’s 49-20-9-6 with a $2.53 return on investment, and in non-graded ones, he’s even better: 8-5-1-1, $6.51. That’s a combined $3.09 ROI in dirt-route stakes at Gulfstream over the past five years. • Not That: Pletcher horses in for a tag. Pletcher wins at such a high rate at Gulfstream (30 percent over the last five years) that it’s tough to find angles where he wins at a low rate. Instead, it’s best to focus on areas where he gets overbet and offers a poor ROI. One such area is when his horses are available to be claimed. Over the past five years at Gulfstream, Pletcher is a respectable 44-12-7-4 with horses in for a tag. That 27 percent win rate is only down a few ticks from his rate with all horses at Gulfstream. However, the ROI on those horses is only $1.35, meaning when he does win, the payoffs are low. In fact, none of those 12 winners went off at odds of 3-1 or higher, and he went a dismal 15-0-1-2 with those in for a tag at odds of 3-1 and up. Chad Brown: He should need little introduction to any serious horseplayer, as Brown has become a top trainer in recent years, winning with around 25 percent of his runners. Based in New York, Brown sends many horses to Florida for the winter when turf racing in New York takes a hiatus. He’s had nearly 400 starters at Gulfstream Park in the past five years. • Bet This: Brown at Gulfstream in maiden-claiming turf routes with horses not making their debut. Perhaps the logic is that the maidens Brown brings to Gulfstream are a cut below, and the best ones have either graduated elsewhere or are being turned out for the winter. For whatever reason, Brown is 33-14-5-6 with a $3.16 ROI over the past five years at Gulfstream in turf-route maiden claimers with horses who have run at least once before. • Not That: Brown at Gulfstream in turf routes with first-time starters. In a previous article we touted Brown’s success with first-time starters going long on turf. That success, however, does not translate at Gulfstream Park. Over the past five years, Brown is 32-2-4-2 with an $0.83 ROI in turf routes with firsters. It’s even worse if they aren’t in for the tag, as he’s 20-1-3-0 with a $0.51 ROI when they debut in maiden special weight turf routes. • Not That: Brown at Gulfstream with longshots. On other circuits, Brown winners can be found at square prices or even at double digits. Over the past five years, that has not been the case at Gulfstream Park. In that time, Brown is 104-6-16-14 with a $0.88 ROI with all runners at 5-1 and higher. Even worse, he’s 39-0-3-2 with runners who went off at double-digit odds. At Gulfstream, if a Brown horse is well meant, he gets bet, and in recent history, that has made playing him at Gulfstream a dicey proposition. Kirk Ziadie: In terms of win percentage, Ziadie has to be viewed as one of the top trainers in the country. Based in Florida, he’s not a household name to horseplayers who focus on other circuits. Still, Ziadie, despite averaging only about 200 starters per year, has a remarkable 27 percent win rate from more than 2,500 starters in his career. In 2013, he was downright ridiculous, compiling a 253-104-60-31 record in all races, which equates to 41 percent winners and 77 percent in the money. Clearly, he spots his horses well, and they are usually contenders. • Bet This: Ziadie in dirt sprints with maiden claimers. Ziadie wins at such a high percentage that his horses get bet very heavily. In fact, over the past five years, his horses have gone off as the post-time favorite 56 percent of the time, and nearly one-quarter of them were odds-on favorites. Therefore, it can be tough to make a profit betting Ziadie horses unless there is an angle that wins at an extraordinary rate. One such angle is Ziadie in dirt sprints with maiden claimers at Gulfstream. Over the past two years at Gulfstream, Ziadie is 24-13-4-2 with a $2.92 ROI in those races. That’s 54 percent winners and nearly 80 percent in the money. • Not That: Ziadie in turf routes at Gulfstream. Since Ziadie gets bet so heavily, the key is to find angles where the success rate dips enough to make the wager a bad bet. One of those areas appears to be in turf routes. Over the past five years at Gulfstream, Ziadie is 37-3-8-6 with a $0.47 ROI in those races. Granted, the sample size is a bit small, so it may not be enough to dissuade you from betting a horse who’s a square price, but recent history has shown this to be one of the areas where you can toss one of his horses with a degree of confidence. Peter Walder: Like Ziadie, Walder is another low-profile trainer based in Florida who wins at a high rate. Walder excels at the claiming game, with two-thirds of his runners in for a tag over the past five years and a 27 percent success rate in the first start following a claim (154-42-21-28). • Bet This: Walder going route to sprint at Gulfstream. Over the past five years, Walder is 31-15-4-5 with a $3.99 ROI at Gulfstream on the cutback from a route to a sprint, regardless of whether it’s on dirt or turf. • Not That: Walder in the first start following a claim when protected. Over the past five years at Gulfstream, Walder is 102-25-16-17 in the first start following a claim. However, every one of those 25 winners was entered for a tag. Every single one. In that time, he’s 16-0-1-4 at Gulfstream in the first start following a claim when the horse is not in for a tag. Bill Mott: To most race fans, Bill Mott needs no introduction. He’s not only in the Hall of Fame, but at age 45 at the time of his induction in 1998, he was the youngest trainer to be enshrined in the Hall. Though based primarily in New York, Mott regularly sends a string of horses to Gulfstream for the winter meet. It may come as a surprise to many, though, that Mott’s Gulfstream runners in the past five years have generally been bad bets, winning only 14 percent of the time and returning only a $1.20 ROI (from more than 662 starters). • Bet This: Mott going dirt to turf and sprint to route in maiden special weights at Gulfstream. Mott’s runners at Gulfstream get bet heavily and win at such a low rate that it’s actually somewhat difficult to find positive betting angles. In the past five years at Gulfstream, Mott’s horses have gone off favored 23 percent of the time, but he’s only won 14 percent of his starts. This means that the non-favorites went 44-for-510, which is a paltry 8.6 percent win rate. And with longshots, it’s even worse, as he’s 20-for-323 (6 percent, $1.13 ROI) when the odds are 5-1 or higher. However, there is one angle, albeit one with a fairly small sample, where he has had some success at Gulfstream: going dirt to turf and sprint to route in maiden special weights. Over the past five years, he’s 15-4-2-1 with a $4.96 ROI in those races. • Not That: The other Mott maidens at Gulfstream. The majority of Mott’s starters at Gulfstream over the past five years (366 of 662 starts, or just over 55 percent) have been maidens, and on the whole, they’ve been a terrible bet, especially if you exclude the ones mentioned above. He’s 366-32-51-37 with a $1.00 ROI in all maiden races. And it doesn’t matter the class (MSW or maiden claimer), the surface (turf or dirt), or the distance (sprint or route); Mott maidens at Gulfstream have been losing bets over the past five years. Marty Wolfson: Like Ziadie and Walder, Wolfson is based in Florida, and nearly half of his starts over the past five years came at Gulfstream. In fact, of all the trainers mentioned here, he’s the only one with a positive ROI with all starters at Gulfstream over the past five years, going 477-97-95-67 with a $2.15 ROI. • Bet This: Wolfson going sprint to route in the second start following a layoff at Gulfstream. As you’ll see below, it’s best to avoid Wolfson’s route horses in their first start following a layoff. Maybe the logic is he wants to get a race in them. But when he stretches them out from a sprint to a route in the second start after a layoff, he’s been a good bet lately. Over the past five years at Gulfstream, he’s 22-5-3-3 with a $5.00 ROI with those types, and in 2014, he’s 3-for-8 with a $10.85 ROI, thanks to a couple of $40 winners. • Not That: Wolfson in routes at Gulfstream after extended layoffs. With horses coming off layoffs of 61 days or longer, he has decent success bringing them back in sprints at Gulfstream (28 percent win rate, $1.75 ROI) over the past five years. When he brings them back in routes, though, he’s 39-3-7-4 with a $0.89 ROI. These are just a few examples of great bets to target as well as ones to avoid. Every day, at every track, you will find many examples of these kinds of great (or awful) opportunities. DRF Formulator gives you the keys to find these angles, and it could very well lead you to a winner that is overlooked by much of the betting public. Click here for the different Formulator plans available, priced for every budget.