Over the past 10 years, no trainer in North America has been more successful than Todd Pletcher. In seven of those 10 years (including 2014), his horses have amassed more than $20 million in earnings, and he was voted the Eclipse Award as top trainer in five of those years (and could very well win the award a sixth time in 2014). His stats with all starters over the past five years are strong – almost 5,000 starters, a 25 percent win rate, 55 percent in the money, and a return on investment for a $2 win bet of $1.73 that beats the takeout rate at most tracks even if it doesn’t return a profit – really an incredible achievement for a trainer whose horses get bet down automatically just because of who saddles them. DRF Formulator gives you full access to all of a trainer’s runners over the past five years, allowing you to analyze patterns and unearth angles that have succeeded in the past. Let’s use Formulator to take a deeper dive on Pletcher’s numbers. • Bet This: Pletcher debuting juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints, especially at Saratoga, Belmont, or Aqueduct. At other tracks, stats on Pletcher firsters (25 percent win, $1.77 ROI, 53 percent in the money) are similar to his stats for all runners over the past five years (25 percent win, $1.73 ROI, 55 percent in the money). At the three tracks on the New York Racing Association circuit, though, his win and in-the-money rates skyrocket. Over the past five years at Saratoga, Belmont, and Aqueduct, Pletcher has debuted 184 2-year-olds in maiden special weight dirt sprints, compiling a 184-72-36-30 record, which equates to 39 percent winners, 75 percent in the money, and a $2.43 ROI. That’s a remarkable win rate, especially when you consider that he often debuts two horses in the same race (18 races and 36 horses in this sample, in case you’re curious). And if you factor out the races in the sample that were carded on turf but moved to dirt, it gets even better and pushes the win rate over 40 percent: 173-70-34-29 with a $2.44 ROI. • Not That: Pletcher debuting older horses in maiden claimers. If Pletcher doesn’t get them to the races before they turn 3 and runs them in maiden special weight races, his win percentage and ROI both dip a bit, down to 20 percent and $1.60 over the past five years. If, however, he debuts older horses in maiden claimers, bet against. Over the past five years, he’s 54-4-8-5 with a $1.11 ROI with those types, and that includes a $43 debut winner at Gulfstream in February 2010. That’s a stark contrast to the juveniles whom he debuts in maiden claimers: 49-12-4-7 with a $1.51 ROI. And once his unraced horses turn 3, if they debut in maiden claimers on turf, forget it. He’s 22-0-2-2 with those types over the past five years. Oh, and all but one of those horses went off at single-digit odds. • Not That: Pletcher adding blinkers for the first time in stakes races. When Pletcher adds blinkers for the first time on a horse who has run at least one race (i.e. if you factor out the first-time starters), he wins 21 percent of the time, a rate close to his 25 percent win rate with all horses over the past five years. Most of those first-time-blinkers wins have come with maidens, though. When Pletcher tries blinks for the first time with stakes horses, he’s been downright dismal. Over the past five years, he’s a combined 30-1-2-5 with a $0.17 ROI in all stakes races where he tries blinkers for the first time. That’s 13-0-1-1 in non-graded stakes and 17-1-1-4 in graded stakes, the lone win being a Grade 3 victory by Micromanage in the Skip Away in March. • Bet This: Pletcher removing blinkers in stakes races. Perhaps the failed blinkers experiment mentioned above just helps the price by muddying the form when he takes those blinkers off. That’s the case with some who have won at nice prices when he removes blinkers in stakes races. Either way, he’s 19-5-0-5 with a $4.43 ROI over the past five years when he takes the blinkers off in a stakes race (like Palace Malice in the 2013 Belmont Stakes). That breaks down to 9-2-0-3 with a $2.37 ROI in non-graded stakes and even better in graded stakes: 10-3-0-2 with a $6.27 ROI. Though the sample size is not very large, it has been a move that has worked for him in recent years, providing a true rarity for Pletcher: winners at a price. • Bet This: Pletcher going sprint to route in the second start following a layoff. With all horses in route races following a layoff of 45 days or more, Pletcher’s numbers over the past five years match his baseline numbers in win rate (25 percent) and are down only one penny in ROI ($1.73 to $1.72). If he brings them back in a sprint but then stretches them to a route in that second start off the layoff, look out. He’s 99-29-13-20 with a $3.45 ROI with that move, and he’s strong regardless of surface, if (unsurprisingly) a touch stronger on dirt (72-22-9-15 with a $3.64 ROI). • Not That: Pletcher on turf in Grade 1 races. Over the past five years, Pletcher is 50-1-2-8 with a $0.13 ROI for each $2 win bet. That lone winner was Turbo Compressor in the 2012 running of the United Nations at Monmouth at odds of 5-2, and he hasn’t even had a starter finish in the exacta in a top-level North American turf race since, going 31-0-0-4, with 17 of those going off at single-digit odds and nine of them lower than 5-1. • Not That: Pletcher horses trying turf for the first time following a layoff. Despite his recent (and unmistakable) lack of success in turf Grade 1 stakes, Pletcher actually has respectable numbers on turf over the past five years – 19 percent win rate, $1.59 ROI, and 48 percent in the money –numbers that would make most trainers envious. However, if Pletcher brings a horse back from a layoff of 45 days or more and tries him on grass for the first time, he struggles. He’s 72-8-8-5 with a $1.00 ROI over the past five years with all first turfers following layoffs. • Bet This: Pletcher in dirt Grade 1 races without his top jockeys. Quite often, when Pletcher enters more than two horses in a big race, the lesser-touted ones can offer great value and frequently outrun their odds. This has proven to be the case even when Pletcher names his go-to jockeys, John Velazquez and Javier Castellano, on the “live” horses. Those two guys have combined to win 37 Grade 1 races for Pletcher over the past five years (201-37-29-27, $1.11 ROI), but it is nearly impossible to get good value on a Grade 1 winner with one of those two aboard. In fact, only 3 of those 37 winners went off higher than 5-1, and none of them was above 10-1. But if either Johnny V. or Javier are not able to travel to ride for him, or if he simply has more than two horses entered in the same field, bet the ones with the other jockeys. Over the past two years, Pletcher is 41-8-5-3 with a whopping $7.06 ROI (that’s a more than 250 percent profit) in Grade 1 stakes on dirt with jockeys other than Velazquez or Castellano. This is one of the rare times that you might be able to find a Pletcher winner at a price. Pletcher’s three highest-priced winners in the past two years came with this angle, and four of those nine winners went off at double-digit odds, including Palace Malice in the 2013 Belmont at 13-1, Capo Bastone in the 2013 King’s Bishop at 28-1, Princess of Sylmar in the 2013 Kentucky Oaks at 38-1, and Danza in the 2014 Arkansas Derby at 41-1. Of course, there is no guarantee that this angle will prove similarly lucrative in the coming years, but it does illustrate the depth of his barn and that all of his horses need to be taken seriously when he places them in Grade 1 races. These are just a few examples of great bets to target as well as ones to avoid. Every day, at every track, you will find many examples of these kinds of great (or awful) opportunities. DRF Formulator gives you the keys to find these angles, and it could very well lead you to a winner that is overlooked by much of the betting public. Check out the different Formulator plans available, priced for every budget.