Originally published in the Del Mar Player’s Guide on July 12. Racing at Del Mar returns July 15, kicking off an eight-week summer meet that runs through Labor Day, Sept. 5. Last summer’s meet was the first one with races run on a dirt main track, ending an eight-year stretch of the all-weather Polytrack surface. Since DRF Formulator gives you access to all of a trainer’s runners over the past five years, this means the main-track races before last year for Del Mar are synthetic races. Even though many of the races in the database will reflect a surface that is no longer in use at Del Mar, we can use Formulator to focus on the class and type of horses whom a trainer has saddled at Del Mar in that time and whether horses outperformed or underperformed compared to their odds. Which are the best betting opportunities, and which are best to avoid? Below are a few of our favorites, and at the bottom of this article, you’ll find a code to try Formulator to find your own betting opportunities. ◗ Bet This: Bob Baffert first-time starters not wearing blinkers. Most of Baffert’s horses debut wearing blinkers; of the 365 runners he has debuted in the past five years, more than 80 percent of them wore blinkers in their first start. Either in person at the track or on the simulcast feed, be sure to keep an eye on the Baffert first-time starters and see if they are wearing blinkers. The ones he’s debuted at Del Mar in the past five years without blinkers have won at a high rate, going 10 for 25 in that first start and returning a healthy $3.02 for each $2 win bet. ◗ Bet This: Peter Miller first off the claim on dirt. Miller is a very active and successful claiming trainer. He’s run nearly 200 horses in the first start following a claim over the past five years, and he wins at a 23 percent rate. That high win rate holds steady at Del Mar, as he’s 65-14-10-7 in that time, for a nice $2.00 ROI. Over the past year, with runners whom he puts on the Del Mar dirt in the first start after a claim, he’s a gaudy 6 for 12, and the ROI jumps to $4.58. ◗ Not That: Richard Baltas first off the claim. Baltas is a trainer who spots his horses competitively, and his $2.49 ROI at Del Mar is the best of any trainer there over the past five years. However, the first start following a claim is not generally strong for Baltas, and that’s especially been the case at Del Mar, where he’s 17-0-2-4 over the past five years. Sure, 17 starts isn’t the largest sample size, but 10 of them were at odds of 5-1 or lower, and even eventual Grade 1 winner Big Macher could only muster a third-place finish in his first start off the claim for Baltas. ◗ Bet This: Phil D’Amato going sprint to route on turf. Turf routers tend to be D’Amato’s strong suit, so it’s not terribly surprising that he’s done well at Del Mar when stretching horses out on turf. However, it is a bit surprising that many of his winners with this angle came at big odds. He’s compiled a 27-7-4-2 record at Del Mar with turf stretch-outs, and the ROI is a healthy $4.58 thanks to three winners who each paid more than $20. ◗ Not That: D’Amato going route to sprint. Cutting back from a route to a sprint has not been a strong angle for D’Amato at Del Mar. In the past five years, he’s gone 20-1-3-2, with the lone winner prevailing by just a neck at odds of 4-5, so he’s yielded just a $0.18 ROI with those runners. Also, none of the non-winners finished within a length of the winner, and many of them lost at short odds, indicating that the market likely overvalued their chances. The carryovers from last year: A few of the angles we highlighted for Del Mar last year performed well enough that we wanted to be sure we kept an eye on them for this year as well. ◗ Bet This: Baffert going route to sprint. What we said last year: It will be interesting to see how this angle plays with the switch to a dirt main track, but it’s definitely worth noting that Baffert is 21-9-4-3 with a $3.68 ROI in the past five years when cutting back from a route to a sprint at Del Mar. When the cutback comes following a layoff of at least 100 days, he’s 7-4-1-1 with a $2.71 ROI. How the angle performed last year: 6-2-3-0, $3.30 ROI. Sure, one winner was the 2-5 favorite, but the other paid $17, and 5 of 6 in the exacta is strong. ◗ Not That: Bob Baffert longshots. What we said last year: Remember, with Baffert at Del Mar, follow the money. In the past five years, Baffert has run 69 horses at Del Mar who were 8-1 or higher at post time; only two hit the exacta. His full record with those runners is 69-1-1-6 for a $0.38 ROI, and that only 12 percent hit the board means that most ran to their odds. How the angle performed last year: 28-1-6-1, $0.71 ROI. The lone winner paid exactly $20, so it barely qualified, although the six second-place finishes do hint that a few outran their odds. ◗ Not That: John Sadler in turf sprints. What we said last year: Sadler has had good success in the downhill turf sprints at Santa Anita, so it’s a bit surprising that he’s only 35-4-6-5 for a $0.58 ROI over the past five years in turf sprints at Del Mar. Sure, 11 percent winners and 43 percent in the money isn’t horrible, but it’s worth noting that those four winners in that time were all post-time favorites, and he’s had only one win in his past 22 Del Mar turf-sprint starts. How the angle performed last year: 8-0-0-2. Sadler is now 1 for his last 30 in turf sprints at Del Mar, and not even hitting the exacta in eight starts last year does not offer much hope for this angle. ◗ Not That: Doug O’Neill on the class hike. What we said last year: With two very specific class hikes, O’Neill has had little success at Del Mar in the past five years. He’s had only one horse hit the exacta when moving horses from claiming races to allowance races in that time (15-0-1-4), and he’s just 1 for 15 for a $0.49 ROI when increasing the claiming price of a horse 50 percent or more, albeit with seven horses running second. Conversely, he’s had very good success with the opposite moves, as he’s 24-4-4-1 with a $2.65 ROI when dropping from allowance to claiming and 17-7-1-1 for a $5.97 ROI when dropping the claiming price at least 50 percent. How the angle performed last year: 6-0-0-2. Still little success with those two types of class hikes. ◗ Bet This: Mike Puype in maiden races for California-breds. What we said last year: Puype has done good work with statebreds, and nowhere is that more evident than in maiden races at Del Mar restricted to horses bred in California (or by Cal-based sires). In the past five years, he’s 50-12-5-4 with a $3.07 ROI in those races, vs. a record of 88-6-13-13 and a $0.56 ROI in maiden races without that restriction. How the angle performed last year: 17-2-1-2, $2.31 ROI. The two winners were both making their debut, for what that’s worth, and they were both square prices. More notably, his record in open (i.e. non-Cal-bred) maiden races at Del Mar was 28-0-2-6. These are just a few examples of great bets to target as well as ones to avoid. Every day, at every track, you will find many examples of these kinds of great (or awful) opportunities. DRF Formulator gives you the keys to find these angles, and it could very well lead you to a winner that is overlooked by much of the betting public. Check out (link: http://www.drf.com/store/formulator-past-performance) the different Formulator plans available, priced for every budget. Better yet, try it for yourself; get two Formulator cards for a penny by using code BETTHIS at checkout.