Bet This, Not That: The Claiming Game While the stakes races are the ones that get the ink, the majority of races in North America are claiming races. Some trainers are aggressive, willing to risk losing horses via the claim but spotting them where they have a strong chance of winning. Other trainers are reluctant to enter their runners for a tag, and when they finally do, it can be an indication that the main goal is more about finding the horse a new home than about winning that race. Let’s use the trainer stats feature in DRF Formulator to see which trainers excel in certain parts of the claiming game and which ones you might want to avoid betting. [Note: stats current as of April 7, 2016.] The class hike: Class is often difficult to measure. With so many conditional claiming races, it can be hard to determine if a horse is moving up or down in class, even if the claiming price changes. How does a $15,000 N2L claiming race for 3-year-olds at Aqueduct compare to a $5,000 claiming race at Oaklawn Park with no restrictions? That topic could be the subject of a different article (although the Beyer Pars can help), so here we’ll just focus on dramatic moves up in claiming tag price or moving from claiming to allowance ranks. Bet This: Jeff Mullins when increasing the claiming price at least 50 percent from last start. Jeff Mullins is a smart trainer based in Southern California, and he’s very adept at reading a conditions book. He rarely places runners in spots where they have no chance, so it’s notable when Mullins increases the claiming price from the previous start, especially when the horse did not win the race. Over the past five years, Mullins has a 14-5-2-4 record and $4.34 return on investment when raising the tag price at least 50 percent, and with horses coming off losses he’s 10-4-0-3 for a $5.42 ROI. Not That: Steve Asmussen moving up in class after a claim. Asmussen isn’t just the most prolific trainer in North America in the past five years, with more than 7,400 runners; he’s also claimed more than 350 horses in that time, winning at a 20 percent rate off the claim. However, Asmussen has had much less success moving horses up in class following a claim. While he does well raising the claiming price but keeping them in the claiming ranks, he has not had success moving them to maiden special weight, allowance/optional claiming, or stakes, going a combined 11 for 84 (13 percent) for a $1.07 ROI. Off the claim: Everyone hopes to claim a horse who can move up in class, a horse like Lava Man, who was claimed for $50,000 and went on to earn more than $5 million for his new owners, or more recently Page McKenney, who was claimed for $16,000 and then earned more than $1 million. Rarely do trainers and owners claim a horse expecting that they will drop the horse steeply in class in the first start after a claim, but some trainers are more likely to enter newly claimed horses in realistic spots. Remember, this is as much about how successful trainers are at reading a condition book and places their horses as it is about horsemanship. Bet This: Danny Gargan in dirt routes in the first start after a claim. Anyone paying attention to the New York Racing Association circuit in the past few years is aware of Danny Gargan. From a limited number of runners, Gargan has had a high rate of success lately, and in 2015 he put together the best year of his short career, winning 33 races in 131 starts (25 percent) and returning a gaudy $3.18 ROI for all of those runners. Gargan has been an active trainer at the claim box, and he’s especially adept with dirt routers off the claim, going 29-9-5-7 with a $3.11 ROI over the past five years. With those runners he stretches out from a sprint, look out, as he’s 5 for 7 with a $7.25 ROI going sprint to route on dirt in the first start after a claim. Bet This: Jorge Navarro cutting the claim price by 50 percent or more in the first start following a claim. Navarro plays the claiming game as adeptly as anyone. In fact, over the past five years he’s won more than 35 percent with all of his starters in the first start following a claim; if you bet all 229 of those starters to win, you would have made a 12 percent profit. Like most trainers, he’s more likely to enter them for a higher tag in the first start after a claim, but don’t be discouraged if he drops them. Over the past five years, he has dropped the claim price by at least half in the first start after he claimed a horse seven times, and five of them won. Not That: Richard Baltas in the first start after a claim. In the past few years, Baltas has moved from a virtual unknown to one of the winningest trainers on the Southern California circuit, winning at an 18 percent clip and posting a $2.11 ROI with all runners. For whatever reason, though, he has not been a great bet in the first start following a claim, compiling just a 7 for 61 record (11 percent) and posting an ROI of just $0.74 for each $2 win bet. The main takeaway seems to be the market is overvaluing these runners, as none of the seven winners paid as much as $9, and 29 of the 54 losses came at odds of lower than 5-1. Bet This: Mike Maker on turf in the first start after a claim. Mike Maker is a strong turf trainer and an active claiming trainer, so it’s not too surprising that he has had his share of success on turf after a claim. Over the past five years, Maker has won at a 27 percent rate (48 for 176) on turf in the first start after a claim, returning $2.83 for each $2 win bet. And don’t worry if the horse doesn’t have established turf form; he’s 19-5-4-2 for a $3.63 ROI with runners trying grass for the first time in the first start after a claim. Not That: Horses on turf in the first start after being claimed away from Mike Maker. Just because a horse has shown strong turf form for Mike Maker, that doesn’t mean he will show the same form after being claimed away from Maker. Or perhaps it’s a case of the new connections overestimating the class level of those runners and placing them in tough spots. Whatever the reason, it’s clear that the betting market has had a history of overvaluing those runners compared to their chance of winning. In the past five years, turf runners making their first start after being claimed away from Maker have won just 15 of 153 starts, returning only a $0.76 ROI, and the median winner paid just $6.60. Even worse, they rarely outrun their odds, as those runners that were 3-1 or higher compiled a record of just 118-6-10-10; that’s barely a 5 percent win rate and only 22 percent in the money. Not That: Jeremiah Englehart with maidens in the first start after a claim. Based primarily in New York, Englehart is another excellent trainer, but he’s just 19-1-2-2 with a $0.15 ROI over the past five years with maidens in the first start after being claimed. Sure, 19 starters in five years is not the biggest sample, but considering that Englehart wins at a 21 percent with all runners off the claim in the past five years and that 11 of the 18 maiden losers were lower than 5-1, this seems another area where the market overvalues the runners. Last-out winners in for a tag: Winning can be contagious. It’s not rare to see a horse take a number of starts before winning his first race, only to rattle off a few wins in a row. Also, many handicappers focus heavily on recent form, and what’s more formful than a horse coming off a win? Still, it can be tough to win right back, as each win can mean that the horse has lost a condition. Bet This: The Servis brothers with horses coming off a win and entered for a tag. John Servis and Jason Servis both win at high rates regardless of class level. Jason has compiled a 23 percent win rate from more than 1,600 starters in the past five years and John’s win rate is more than 19 percent with nearly 1,500 starters. Both win at even higher rates with last-out winners—Jason at 26 percent in that time and John at 25 percent —and both are even better with horses coming off a win and entered back for a tag. Jason’s record with those runners is 141-42-20-25 for a $2.12 ROI; that’s a 30 percent win rate and 62 percent in the money. His turf routers in that sample fare even better; 11 for 36 with a $2.72 ROI. John mirrors Jason’s 30 percent win rate with those runners (19 for 63), and his ROI is even better at $2.62, and strangely his strong suit with these runners seems to be dirt sprints, as his record balloons to 13 for 28 and the ROI jumps to $4.10. Not That: Todd Pletcher horses coming off a win and entered for a tag. Pletcher wins a lot of races. But like Bob Baffert, Pletcher rarely runs horses at the claiming level for very long. Sometimes he’ll get a win and then move them back into allowance or even stakes company, but more often they’ll get claimed away or find new homes through other means. Pletcher horses are nearly always heavily bet, so those runners must win at a high rate in order to make them a profitable bet, and Pletcher runners coming off a win and running for a claiming tag are a good example of a case where the market overvalues them compared to their likelihood of winning. In the past five years, those horses have a record of 50-6-7-11. That 12 percent win rate is half of the rate Pletcher wins with all runners, and the $0.84 ROI is less than half of his baseline ROI. However, 13 of those 50 runners were claimed, which might give a hint about what the true goal was for those runners. These are just a few examples of great bets to target as well as ones to avoid. Every day, at every track, you will find many examples of these kinds of great (or awful) opportunities. DRF Formulator gives you the keys to find these angles, and it could very well lead you to a winner that is overlooked by much of the betting public. Check out the different Formulator plans available, priced for every budget.