Inducted into the Racing Hall of Fame in 2009, Bob Baffert has achieved almost every accomplishment possible. He’s won three Eclipse Awards as the top trainer in North America, 11 Breeders’ Cup races, nine Triple Crown races, and his horses have amassed almost $215 million in earnings over the past 25 years. He wins at a high rate, so the key in recent history has been identifying which horses to bet, and which ones to avoid. Fortunately, DRF Formulator gives you access to all of a trainer’s runners over the past five years, allowing you to analyze patterns and unearth angles that have succeeded in the past. Let’s use Formulator to examine the stats and take a deeper dive into Baffert’s numbers. In analyzing Baffert’s value (or lack thereof) in certain situations, it’s always best to see his baseline stats for all runners over the past five years. As of Dec. 15, Baffert was 651 for 2,554, which equates to a 25 percent win rate and a $1.73 return on investment, as well as a 56 percent in-the-money rate. When seeking out positive or negative value angles, it’s good to look for ones that perform noticeably better or worse than those baseline numbers. • Bet This: Baffert in dirt stakes following a long layoff. Baffert on dirt after a long layoff is a strong angle. Baffert’s horses are almost always live; the temptation is to look for spots where they aren’t likely to run best. Many horseplayers might assume that one such spot is with horses returning from layoffs of 180 days or more. In top races, logic follows that they would not be ready to compete at a top level following such a long layoff. “Something likely went wrong, so I’ll just watch the first start and let them shake off the rust,” goes the logic. It’s generally sensible logic, but it doesn’t work with Baffert. He brings them back ready to run, going 100-37-23-10 with a $3.03 ROI over the past five years with all runners on dirt following a 180-day-plus layoff. Seemingly, the longer the layoff, the better he does, as he’s 10 for 20 with runners returning on dirt after layoffs of one year or more. But in dirt stakes races following a long layoff, the numbers are astounding. He’s 26-10-4-2 with a $4.22 ROI over the past five years in dirt stakes following layoffs of 180 days or more. • Not That: Baffert on turf in graded stakes. Like fellow top trainer Todd Pletcher, Baffert has had the bulk of his success in the richest races on dirt. While Pletcher has averaged 10 runners in Grade 1 turf events (51 starters over the past five years) per year, Baffert has very few. He’s only had three starts in Grade 1 stakes on turf over the past five years, and the best result was a third-place finish from Fed Biz in the Kilroe Mile in March 2013. It’s not much prettier in Grade 2 or Grade 3 stakes either. In fact, Baffert is 31-3-2-3 with a $0.49 ROI over the past five years in graded stakes on turf. It’s also worth noting that all three of those winners went off as post-time favorites, which means that Baffert is 25-0-2-3 in graded turf stakes with horses who were not bet down to favoritism at post time. :: WEBINAR - Join a demonstration of the Formulator trainer patterns tools and filters used to create "Bet This, Not That" at 12:30 p.m. ET  Wednesday, Dec. 17 • Bet This: Baffert going sprint to route on dirt. In general, the sprint-to-route angle is a strong one for Baffert. Over the past five years, Baffert’s sprint-to-route ROI is $1.80, and 58 percent hit the board, both of which are slight improvements to his baseline numbers, all while holding steady at a 25 percent win rate. Unsurprisingly, though, Baffert’s turf starters in the sample (46-6-5-9, $1.03 ROI) really drag things down, and the synthetic numbers are mediocre, too (93-19-25-11, $1.49 ROI). Therefore, the bulk of the success lies on dirt: 153-49-29-17, $2.21 ROI over the past five years. For such a large sample, the 32 percent win rate and positive ROI are noteworthy, especially when you consider that exactly one-third of those runners went off as the post-time favorite. (Side note: As the favorite, that angle is 51-28-14-2, $2.15 ROI, or 55 percent winners and 86 percent in the money.) And better yet, recently this angle has been very strong, going 46-16-9-3 with a $3.17 ROI over the last year. • Bet This: Baffert going route to sprint on dirt. Considering Baffert’s recent success stretching out horses on dirt, you might conjecture that cutting them back from routes to sprints would be a weakness. In fact, his numbers going route to sprint are even stronger since he does equally well on dirt and synthetic (though turf is still poor: 18-1-1-3, $0.21 ROI). Actually, his synthetic numbers are a tick better on this angle over the past five years (84-28-13-16, $2.82 ROI), but with the demise of synthetic surfaces on Baffert’s home circuit, the dirt numbers look just fine: 97-31-14-8 with a $2.60 ROI. Like the one above, this is another angle where Baffert has excelled over the last 365 days: 32-9-6-1, $3.37 ROI. And better yet, when Baffert cuts back to a sprint in a graded stakes race, he’s 22-8-0-0 with a $5.31 ROI over the past five years and 4 for 7 with a $10.59 ROI over the last year. • Not That: Horses claimed away from Baffert. Baffert, of course, is known for running horses in top races, not for winning a lot of races with horses entered for tags. However, he’s won 28 percent of the time his horses have run for a tag over the past five years (80 for 284), which accounts for 12 percent of his wins over that time. But should any of those horses get claimed away, avoid them in their first start for their new barn. Over the past five years, horses claimed away from Baffert are 60-4-11-6 with a $0.45 ROI, and 10 of those 60 runners went off as the favorite. Only one of those favorites won, paying just $3.60. • Not That: Baffert with longshots on turf. By now, hopefully you’ve learned that Baffert is not generally a wise bet on turf. He doesn’t win top stakes races on turf, and he doesn’t on the hillside turf course at Santa Anita. But what if you find a turf runner of his whom you like at longer odds? Could that be a good bet? According to recent history, the answer is a definitive no. Over the past five years, Baffert turf runners who went off at double-digits odds are 40-0-1-3. Think about that. Baffert has not had a $20 winner on turf in the past five years, and his turf longshot runners are off the board 90 percent of the time. Comparatively, his ROI for longshots (i.e. 10-1 and up) on other surfaces are similar to his baseline number for all runners: $1.91 ROI on synthetic (95-7-10-12) and $1.64 on dirt (127-7-9-13). • Bet This: Baffert in turf routes with last-out winners. There is one area with turf runners where Baffert has had success over the past five years. When they win and he runs them back in turf routes, he’s 30-7-5-5 with a $2.18 ROI, which rivals his win percentage with all runners and returns a small profit. And if you avoid those return winners in graded stakes (as noted above), then it improves to 24-7-5-5 with a very nice $2.73 ROI. • Bet This: Baffert first-time starters debuting without blinkers. It’s no surprise that Baffert wins a lot of races with first-time starters. Over the past five years, his horses making their debut have won 26 percent of the time (356-93-56-43, $1.80 ROI). Interestingly, though, the ones without blinkers in their debut performed markedly better than those who wore blinkers. In fact, the ones without blinkers won their debut at nearly twice the rate of those with blinkers (75-31-11-8, $2.49 ROI without blinkers; 253-56-43-28, $1.61 ROI with blinkers). It’s also worth noting that the win rate and ROI both stay strong regardless of age, distance, or surface (even turf, where he’s 4-2-0-1, $3.25 ROI with the angle). So, whenever possible, be sure to get a look at those first-time starters in the paddock or post parade and note whether they are wearing shades or not. These are just a few examples of great bets to target as well as ones to avoid. Every day, at every track, you will find many examples of these kinds of great (or awful) opportunities. DRF Formulator gives you the keys to find these angles, and it could very well lead you to a winner who is overlooked by much of the betting public. 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