Bernier: How I'll play Oaklawn on Saturday, April 14

Closing day at Oaklawn Park is highlighted by the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, which is the anchor leg of an all-stakes pick four beginning with race 8. Here’s a look at that sequence using DRF TicketMaker.

RACE 8 – NORTHERN SPUR

TITLE READY (1) ran well in the Rebel most recently against the heavyweights competing in the Arkansas Derby, and a slight drop in class Saturday makes him the horse to beat. He’s likely to be forwardly placed throughout, and any improvement on his recent form makes him a likely win candidate. Steve Asmussen has another intriguing entrant in EGO TRIP (7). A son of Bernardini, Ego Trip won his maiden going nine furlongs on St. Patrick’s Day; the effort was visually impressive, and it looks even stronger when considering he was the only horse in the race to make up significant ground. Horses on the damside of the pedigree include graded stakes winners Frosted, Indulgent, Midshipman, and Fleet Lady; Ego Trip could offer significant value in the Northern Spur. As a backup, I’ll include HIGHER POWER (3), a horse for Donnie Von Hemel who didn’t run well in the Rebel but ran too well two starts back to think there’s no ability whatsoever.

A: 1,7
B: 3

RACE 9 – COUNT FLEET SPRINT

WHITMORE (4) is the horse to beat based on his overall body of work, but I’m not convinced he ran the best race in the Hot Springs on March 10. If WYNN TIME (3) hadn’t gotten shuffled back at a key point on the far turn, I’m not so sure he doesn’t win that race. An improving son of Three Hour Nap, this gelding has never finished out of the exacta in seven lifetime starts and should be able to sit just off what projects to be a swift early pace. He’ll be a lone “A” for me in the Count Fleet, with Whitmore a lone backup.

A: 3
B: 4

RACE 10 – OAKLAWN HANDICAP

The California contingent must be respected in this year’s Oaklawn Handicap, as both ACCELERATE (10) and CITY OF LIGHT (11) have already won Grade 1 races this season, albeit in entirely different races. Accelerate enters on the heels of an impressive score in the Santa Anita Handicap, earning a career-best 110 Beyer Speed Figure; his tactical speed should allow Victor Espinoza to position him wherever he sees fit. As for City of Light, this son of Quality Road will need to prove that two turns is no issue. There’s little doubt that he’s one of the more talented horses in training – but can he transfer that impressive form to a route of ground? If City of Light isn’t ridden aggressively, HEDGE FUND (7) could find himself on a lonely lead. Hedge Fund was very impressive in winning the Essex Handicap most recently, and that success over the Oaklawn strip shouldn’t go unnoticed.

A: 7,10,11

RACE 11 – ARKANSAS DERBY

This year’s Arkansas Derby feels very straightforward; if MAGNUM MOON (6) replicates or improves off his strong score in the Rebel, he’s going to win. There aren’t many alternatives here, perhaps apart from QUIP (8) and SOLOMINI (5). I thought Quip was impressive in winning the Tampa Bay Derby in his first start as a 3-year-old, but I can’t say the same for Solomini. Solomini ran like a horse who needed a race in the Rebel, but his most recent workout left something to be desired, and I’m not convinced that he’s taken a step forward from his 2-year-old season to age 3. Magnum Moon will be my lone “A,” with Quip being my lone backup.

A: 6
B: 8