EDITOR'S NOTE: The following is a free preview of Daily Racing Form's new Betting Strategies product. Betting Strategies will be available for Saturday and Sunday cards ($14.95 each) during the upcoming Del Mar and Saratoga meets.   Daily Racing Form New York handicapper Mike Beer and TimeformUS handicapper David Aragona provide their selections, analysis, and suggested wagers for the Runhappy Metropolitan Handicap card on July 4, 2020, at Belmont Park. Schedule Top 4 picks for each race on the card from both Beer and Aragona (Posted by 6 p.m. ET on Thursday, July 2) Analysis of the top races on the card, with Beer and Aragona providing analysis and offering commentary on their colleague’s analysis. (Posted by 5 p.m. ET on Friday, July 3) Betting strategies (tickets you can play) for each race based on the analysis and feedback (Posted by 5 p.m. ET on Friday, July 3) Tickets for multi-leg tickets created by both Beer and Aragona (Posted by 5 p.m. ET on Friday, July 3) If necessary, picks, analysis, and suggested wagers will be updated after key scratches by 11:30 a.m. ET on Saturday, July 4. Belmont Full-Card Selections Race 1: Md 25000 Mike Beer David Aragona 8 - Charlotte Webley 1 - Remoane 2 - Miss Ross 12 - Aggravation 8 - Charlotte Webley 12 - Aggravation 1 - Remoane 2 - Miss Ross Race 2: OC 62k/N2X Mike Beer David Aragona 1 - Ballagh Rocks 7 - North Dakota 1a - Tribhuvan 6 - Serve the King 4 - Conviction Trade 1/1A - Ballagh Rocks/Tribhuvan 3 - Memories of Peter 7 - North Dakota Race 3: G3 Victory Ride Mike Beer David Aragona 4 - Center Aisle 1 - Frank's Rockette 5 - Miss Peppina 2 - Up In Smoke 4 - Center Aisle 1 - Frank's Rockette 2 - Up In Smoke 5 - Miss Peppina Race 4: Md Sp Wt 64k Mike Beer David Aragona 6 - Bay Street Money 1 - Mr Jaggers 5 - Bail Out 4 - Malibu Edge 1 - Mr Jaggers 5 - Bail Out 3 - Red Storm Risen 6 - Bay Street Money Race 5: OC62k/N2X Mike Beer David Aragona 5 - T Loves a Fight 3 - Tiz He The One 1 - American Power 2 - Ready to Escape 8 - Zoomer 6 - Amundson 3 - Tiz He The One 7 - Fortin Hill Race 6: Md Sp Wt 46k Mike Beer David Aragona 2 - L'Indiscret 10 - Publication 9 - Bastet 5 - Pilot Episode 9 - Bastet 10 - Publication 5 - Pilot Episode 12 - American Goddess Race 7: NY Alw 56000 N1X Mike Beer David Aragona 6 - Steelersfanforlife 2 - Point Him Out 4 - Dante's Fire 8 - Danfusi 4 - Dante's Fire 8 - Danfusi 2 - Point Him Out 1 – Jack the Cat Race 8: G3 Poker Mike Beer David Aragona 2 - Valid Point 9 - Value Proposition 5 - Social Paranoia 4 - Seismic Wave 4 - Seismic Wave 9 - Value Proposition 1 - Dream Friend 3 - Hawkish Race 9: G1 Metropolitan H. Mike Beer David Aragona 5 - Code of Honor 7 - Mr Freeze 2 - Vekoma 3 - McKinzie 2 - Vekoma 5 - Code of Honor 6 - Endorsed 7 - Mr Freeze Race 10: G1 Manhattan Stakes Mike Beer David Aragona 2 - Rockemperor 4 - Sadler's Joy 6 - Channel Maker 1 - Instilled Regard 1 - Instilled Regard 7 - Dot Matrix 3 - Cross Border 2 - Rockemperor Race 11: G2 Suburban Mike Beer David Aragona 8 - Moretti 1 - Tacitus 6 - Sir Winston 7 - Just Whistle 4 - Mr. Buff 6 - Sir Winston 1 - Tacitus 7 - Just Whistle Mike and David’s joint late pick five Mike and David put their heads together to come up with a late pick five wager that incorporates both of their opinions. (Detailed analysis and wagers for each of these races can be found below.) 50-cent pick five starting in Race 7: 4 with 2,4,9 with 2,5 with 1,2 with 1,4,8 ($18) 6,8 with 2,4,9 with 2,5 with 1,2 with 1,4,8 ($36) 4 with 2,4,9 with 2,5 with 3,4,7 with 1,4,8 ($27) 6,8 with 2,4,9 with 2,5 with 3,4,7 with 1,4,8 ($54) 4 with 1,3 with 2,5 with 1,2 with 1,4,8 ($12) 4 with 2,4,9 with 2,5 with 1,2 with 6 ($6) Total: $153   Bet the races online with DRF Bets. New members get $250 bonus. Race 2: OC 62K/N2X David’s Analysis The Madaket Stables et al. entry of #1 Ballagh Rocks and #1A Tribhuvan will be tough to beat in this spot, as either one of these runners might be favored as individual betting interests. Ballagh Rocks is certainly not the same horse that he once was (at the height of his career he actually won the 2017 Poker). Yet he’s nevertheless a good fit at this level as he’s proven since returning as a 7-year-old. Some may be turned off by his loss at 6-5 at Churchill last time, but the winner of that race, Set Piece, looks like a future graded stakes horse in this country. While the other half of this entry, Tribhuvan, is more of a wild card, he would be pretty formidable if able to run back to his U.S. debut at Gulfstream. He got a wide trip that day and closed nicely down the center of the track. Chad Brown thought enough of him to try the Fort Marcy, but you can obviously draw a line through that race since his rein broke soon after the start. I’m not really against the entry, but I do want to be aware of some other runners who may offer significant value if the wagering public goes overboard on the aforementioned pair. I believe the most intriguing potential upsetter is #4 Conviction Trade. This 4-year-old finally seems to be putting it all together and is getting some subtle class relief after facing an unusually tough field at this level on June 3. His April win at Gulfstream puts him in the mix, and I thought he actually improved on that performance last time, despite only managing to finish sixth. Dylan Davis had some trouble working him into the clear in upper stretch, but he stayed on with interest, despite never threatening the winner. He has a significant speed figure edge on a few rivals who could be similar prices, and I believe he could fly under the radar in this spot. I can speak with some enthusiasm about my pick because there are plenty of runners who I’m totally against here: #6 Serve the King is just too slow and has faced far weaker company at Tampa. #7 North Dakota is finally heading in the right direction for Shug McGaughey, but he’s gotten favorable trips and pace setups in his recent starts against weaker, making him look better than he actually is. #2 Spirit Animal turned some heads with an explosive victory against claimers for Chad Brown last time, but now he goes out for Rudy Rodriguez, who has abysmal numbers first off the claim on turf. Among the bigger prices, I wouldn’t be so fast to just dismiss a horse like #3 Memories of Peter. He ran very well off a long layoff at Saratoga last summer and showed that he’s still capable of competing at this level as recently as last October, despite his advanced age. He’s more of an “underneath” type for me, but I find him far more appealing than some other alternatives. Mike’s Response: It sounds like we agree on the merits of the entry in this race. However, I didn't take the extra step that David did to get to a horse like his top pick – about whom I agree regarding his improving pattern, even though I didn't necessarily see the same things that David did in #4 Conviction Trade's recent starts. I admit that I put this race aside and returned to it after the rest of the card was looked at, mostly because I didn't want to pick either #1 Ballagh Rocks or #1A Tribhuvan. Ultimately, I couldn't get past them and settled on Ballagh Rocks as a top pick. David’s Plays (Race 2): Win: 4 Trifecta: 1,4 with 1,4 with 2,3,6,7,9 Trifecta: 1,4 with 2,3,7 with 1,4 Double: 1,4 with 4 Pick 4: 1,4 with 1,4 with 1 with 1,3,5,6,7,8 Pick 4: 1,4 with 1,4 with 3,5,6 with 3,6,8 Race 3: Victory Ride (G3) Mike’s Analysis: The first of five graded stakes on the Independence Day card also is the least interesting, with a five-horse field and an odds-on favorite on the morning line. That favorite is #1 Frank's Rockette, and she is fastest on the way in with an apparent pace advantage. No need to go on and on, she is the horse to beat. The thing is, I've found her to be at her best when able to have things her way in races that are devoid of serious competition, and to lack a fighter's will when faced with a real challenge in her races. I wouldn't necessarily advocate for taking a big stand against her, after all, she appears to be in position to control here, but she is not a horse that I am afraid to take a shot against at a short price. The only horse I would consider trying to beat her with in the Victory Ride is #4 Center Aisle. This filly looked quite good winning first time out with a solid figure, and she emerged from her second start at Churchill with a legitimate excuse after breaking poorly and then going a bit greenly in the stretch after coming wide. Chad Brown's dirt horses get bet as strongly as his turf runners do, but they don't win at nearly the same rate, and that is something to keep in mind coming to post time for this race. Still, this filly should only be a distant second choice in this spot with Frank's Rockette sure to take all the money, and she is eligible to improve quickly. I did want to give a mention to #5 Miss Peppina, who is too slow on the way in but looked good winning her career debut on her own power and then held her own in a pair of graded stakes behind Frank's Rockette as a 2-year-old. Gary Gullo's turf-to-dirt stats won't blow you away if you look them up in DRF Formulator (which covers the past five years of starters), but this was once a very strong move for him. Going back further, to the beginning of 2010, Gullo has won at a 19 percent clip with horses switching from turf to dirt in sprints, with a $2.88 ROI; extending back to the beginning of 2000: 18%, $3.41 ROI. This filly has the potential to improve and is a complete outsider on the morning line. I have no real interest in betting this race straight up – maybe a wager using Miss Peppina underneath in exactas as a flyer – but I am using the #4 in equal measure with the favorite in multi-race wagers. David’s Response: I have absolutely nothing to add to Mike’s analysis of this race. We are in total agreement. Mike’s Plays (Race 3): Double: 4 with 1,6 Race 4: Md Sp Wt David’s Analysis: This one seems pretty straightforward. I couldn’t find a good reason to take a stand against the prohibitive favorite #1 Mr Jaggers. This horse has been well supported on the tote board in all of his turf starts, so I’m wary of the possibility that he could be a substantial underlay here. Yet, I still couldn’t latch onto any of the alternatives. A few of these exit the same race as Mr Jaggers on June 6, and he clearly put in the best effort of any of them. He was off slowly and shuffled back soon after the start. Joel Rosario got a little impatient heading into the far turn, launching a premature move into contention. He challenged for the lead coming to the quarter pole before understandably flattening out late. He has to answer the stamina question as he stretches out to nine furlongs, but he’s certainly bred to go this far. I just think he’s probably going to win. I’m a little more concerned about #3 Red Storm Risen getting this distance, even though he could find himself close to what may be a moderate early pace. He was a bit wide in that June 6 affair and stayed on decently late in his first start off the layoff. In my opinion, he’d need to take a significant step forward to turn the tables on Mr Jaggers, and I didn’t necessarily see the value with him. I have similar feelings about #6 Bay Street Money, who just picked up the pieces late. The added distance will help him, but I need to see a little more before jumping on the bandwagon. I actually think the biggest challenge to Mr Jaggers could come from longtime maiden #5 Bail Out. I know these connections aren’t usually competitive in turf races, but this gelding’s form has nevertheless held together pretty nicely for the new barn. He handles the distance and gets a positive rider switch to Javier Castellano after putting in a strong effort under the apprentice last time. He’s not a winning type, but he’s one to use prominently in exotics. Mike’s Response: #1 Mr Jaggers is clearly the horse to beat following his fine effort last time. I may not agree that he moved prematurely, but that is neither here nor there regarding this race. My only (small) quibble with Mr Jaggers at a short price is that I didn't particularly like either of his two races last year. The improvement he showed last time may make that opinion irrelevant, especially as it pertains to the field he faces here, but he has now lost three times as the favorite and will be even shorter in this spot. I agree that #5 Bail Out is the one with the races that can upset Mr Jaggers, and the fact that he will be a fair price is a bonus, but I can't see myself putting any real money into him. The only other horse I would use with the favorite is #6 Bay Street Money. He took no money in his debut behind Mr Jaggers and was never a factor in that race, but it did look like he was being given a race. To me, if anyone improves significantly in this race, it's going to be him. He is bred to stretch out, and he gets a positive rider change for this. David’s Plays (Race 4): Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,6 Trifecta: 1 with 5,6 with 3,4,5,6 Double: 1 with 8 Race 5: OC 62k/N2X Mike’s Analysis: This seven-furlong sprint offers a nice mix of lightly-raced horses with forward potential, older hard-hitters with a typical race that makes them competitive, and a former graded stakes-quality 6-year-old who is taking some class relief looking to find his way back into form. That stakes-quality runner is #4 Skyler's Scramjet, winner of the Grade 3 Tom Fool back in 2018 and runner-up in the Grade 1 Carter in April 2019. That 2018 Tom Fool remains his last win, and his competitive form seems to be completely eluding him right now. He will rebound in this spot without me. #6 Amundson (4 for 9 lifetime with paired-up 95 Beyers in his two 2020 starts) and #7 Fortin Hill (2 for 3, competitive figures, top connections) lead the lightly-raced contingent. Amundson has speed and is looking to rebound after getting wired last month in the slop. There is pace to his inside, and seven furlongs may not be his best distance, but he is a contender. Fortin Hill has needed time between races and has accomplished comparatively little in relation to his purchase price. His debut was fine, but that was back in 2018, and he beat only two others in his lone start as a 3-year-old, before coming back to finish a no-threat third as the favorite in April at Gulfstream. He can win but is a short price I can do without in this race. I ultimately settled on #5 T Loves a Fight, who has gone in and out of form a couple of times in his career but has been consistently competitive since being claimed by these connections last May. I don't love him, but he is tactical, is fine over this distance, and ran pretty well when shipped to Churchill to get a start during the break in racing on this circuit off the layoff. Best of all, he will be a price in this race. I looked long and hard at #3 Tiz He the One, of whom I have been a fan and who also owns competitive figures, but he could take money in this race and it is hard to reconcile the fact that he has spent almost his entire career racing out of town despite being handled by New York-based trainers. I'll use him, as well as Linda Rice's other horse, #1 American Power, who had some questions to answer upon his return last month after being vanned off in his final start of 2019. He proved that he can still run in that race while tracking the front-running winner from the rail and then just missing at the end. David’s Response: I agree with Mike’s sentiments regarding the two favorites #6 Amundson and #7 Fortin Hill. I prefer Amundson, but didn’t think he necessary had to win this race at a short price. #3 Tiz He the One does make plenty of sense, as he is getting subtle class relief and has proven that he’s proficient over these elongated one-turn distances. He just seems to relish that Laurel surface and hasn’t been nearly as effective anywhere else. I also considered putting him on top, but ultimately went elsewhere. I don’t share Mike’s opinion on #5 T Loves a Fight. I didn’t like his return at Churchill at all, but perhaps he needed that race and will appreciate getting back to New York. I couldn’t make the case for him, but he’ll be a price, so I don’t blame Mike for taking a shot. Two horses come out of that $40,000 claimer on June 7. Mike made the case for #1 American Power, but I thought he got a perfect trip in that spot. In my opinion, the horse you’re supposed to take out of that race based on trips is #8 Zoomer. He took up his typical position at the back of the pack, but was absolutely loaded on the far turn with nowhere to go as Irad Ortiz Jr. searched for room coming to the quarter pole. He had to alter course a couple of times before finally getting into the clear, and he was finishing best of all late. Furthermore, he was the only horse to make a significant run from the back of the pack in a race that was dominated upfront. I know that he improved over the winter for Marcos Zulueta, who was named in the federal indictment, but he held his form for a new barn last time. And now he will probably be a bigger price here than he really should due to the perception that this is a negative claim by Bob Klesaris, and I’m not sure that’s the case. If some pace materializes, I think Zoomer will be very dangerous. Mike’s Plays (Race 5): Win: 5 Exacta Box: 5 with 8 Double: 1,5,8 with 2 Race 6: Md Sp Wt David’s Analysis: I believe most of the major players in this race are drawn toward the outside. #10 Publication seems like the horse to beat, but I wasn’t blown away by her debut effort at Gulfstream. She got a decent trip and put in a solid late run, falling just shy of passing today’s also-eligible entrant Too Sexy in the late stages. It’s a little disconcerting that this impeccably-bred daughter of Grade 2 winner Filimbi was sent off at 24-1 in her debut, but she may have just fallen through the cracks that day. I suppose the slight turnback to seven furlongs shouldn’t hinder her much, and she might have some room to improve, but I thought others were just as interesting at better prices. Among the others shipping up from Florida, #5 Pilot Episode is one that merits consideration. She’s yet to try the turf, but she has enough pedigree to handle it, hailing from a family of synthetic runners who could also handle grass. This daughter of Speightstown ran into the talented sprinter Boerne in her second start and then got cooked chasing a fast pace last time. The seven furlongs could be stretching her stamina in a race featuring other speed, but she has a right to move forward on this surface. #12 American Goddess also should attract some support as she turns back in distance for Wesley Ward and Irad Ortiz, Jr. I didn’t think she ran particularly well when finishing behind Too Sexy and Publication two back, but the two turns may have been too much for her, and these connections scare me. I’d use her defensively. My top pick is #9 Bastet. She was soundly defeated in her only appearance at Churchill Downs in May, but I think that performance is better than it looks on paper. She broke very sharply and raced keenly into the first turn, exerting too much energy in the early stages of a nine-furlong race. She paid the price for those aggressive tactics in the stretch as she faded badly late. Yet her pedigree would indicate that she was never cut out to handle that distance as her female family contains far more sprint influences than stamina. She’s actually a three-quarter-sister to the talented turf sprinter Pagliacci, so this turnback in distance may be exactly what she needs. If she’s somewhere in the 5-1 to 8-1 range, I think that’s a fair price. Mike’s Response: I have David's top pick in my mix and will not dismiss #10 Publication, though she seems likely to be overbet in this race. The only horse I would throw into the discussion is #2 L'Indiscret. Like several others in this race, she has a nice pedigree for top connections, and she lost all position early in her debut, eventually winding up last coming to the stretch. I viewed her as a candidate to improve quickly in this spot, and she is the best price of the horses I was interested in by quite a bit. David’s Plays (Race 6): Win: 9 Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,5,10,11,12 Trifecta: 9,10 with 9,10 with 2,5,7,8,11,12 Trifecta: 9,10 with 2,5,7,8,11,12 with 9,10 Double: 5,9,10 with 4 Race 7: Allowance N1X Mike’s Analysis: This entry-level allowance for New York-bred turf routers is led by the 3-year-olds #2 Point Him Out and #4 Dante's Fire, exiting a similar race for this condition last month that was dominated by a Chad Brown returnee named Graded On a Curve (84 Beyer). They are the two favorites on David's morning line, followed closely by the lightly-raced 4-year-old #8 Danfusi, fresh off a front-running maiden win over this course and distance in his 2020 debut. I can see using all three of those horses here for different reasons, but I also didn't think any one of them had to win this race. I was more interested in trying to get one of the more exposed runners in this field on top, and there are several to choose from. To avoid going all longwinded on this thing, I'll just try to make a case for the horse I took on top: #6 Steelersfanforlife. Steelersfanforlife is not typically the kind of horse I would look for in an entry-level allowance event. He is a 5-year-old with a 1-for-12 record on turf, and his lone win on this surface came back in 2018 in a maiden claimer. On the positive side, his overall form makes him competitive versus this field, and he ran better than it looks several times while going 0 for 7 last year. Most notably, he was held up in traffic and blocked in the upper stretch on Sept. 22, before earning a career-top Beyer in his next start while just failing to last over nine furlongs, and then ran off on a fast pace and tired in his 2019 finale. He also had a troubled trip at Saratoga on July 21 when checking early and then being wrangled in last during the opening furlongs in a slow-paced race. He isn't exactly reliable, but he is adaptable to different pace scenarios and will be a price in this race. David’s Response: I don’t want to pick apart Mike’s opinion on a longshot like #6 Steelersfanforlife too much. We don’t quite see eye to eye on his merits, as I thought his one big figure on Oct. 19 was a product of a very favorable setup of circumstances. Yet Mike’s not wrong that his surrounding form is a bit better than it looks, and he’s going to be an enticing price in a race where you’re forced to rely on a bunch of the shorter prices improving. Of those exiting the June 7 race at this level, I strongly prefer #4 Dante’s Fire. His main rivals both got good trips, as Jack the Cat came up a clear path on the rail and Point Him Out worked out an unencumbered journey and made first run at the quarter pole. That wasn’t the case for Dante’s Fire, who was a little too far back from the outset and just seemed to get lost behind a wall of tiring runners coming to the top of the stretch. Once John Velazquez finally steered him out into the clear he was finishing faster than anyone. He still lost by seven lengths, but that was primarily due to the fact that he was in an impossible position in upper stretch. I thought this horse showed some promise as a 2-year-old, and Mike Maker is 13 for 57 (23%, $2.16 ROI) second off layoffs of 180 days or more in turf routes over the past five years. Perhaps he’s the slight favorite with Irad Ortiz Jr. taking over the reins, but that’s a positive rider switch in my view, and I think he’s the most likely winner. #8 Danfusi comes out of a race that may be pretty strong, as runner-up Barleewon surprised me with a breakout performance to win next time out. He would have to deal with Steelersfanforlife upfront, but I’m not opposed to the idea that he’s just a new horse as a 4-year-old. I’d use him as the primary backup. Mike’s Plays (Race 7): Win: 6 Exacta: 4,8 over 6 Trifecta: 4,6 with 4,6,8 with 1,2,6,7,9 Race 8: Poker (G3) David’s Analysis: The two turf stakes on this card are pretty stimulating handicapping exercises. In this Poker, let’s start by discussing some horses that could be among the shorter prices. Chad Brown sends out the uncoupled pair #9 Value Proposition and #2 Valid Point. I understand that both have their merits, but I prefer Value Proposition. Value Proposition has yet to prove himself against stakes company, but he certainly acts like a horse that should be able to compete at this level. He defeated a stakes-quality optional-claiming field when last seen in early June, making a wide run to the lead past midstretch. That effort confirms that he has indeed returned as an improved 4-year-old, and he may merely have to repeat that performance to beat this field. It’s not as if this is the strongest Grade 3 event we’ve ever seen, and this horse is one of the few who still possesses significant upside. I just have two concerns: 1) He’s still a little green and has a tendency to try and lug in during the stretch drive of his races. He was better about it last time and Irad knew to correct it before it became an issue, but there’s less room for error against stakes company. 2) Irad fits this horse very well, but most horses that he rides tend to be underlays, and this one seems particularly vulnerable to getting overbet. #2 Valid Point is a difficult read for me. He overcame a wide trip to win the Secretariat, but I didn’t think much of that field and the race didn’t come up very fast. I was perplexed as to why he was favored in the Shadwell Turf Mile after that, and while he did encounter some stretch traffic, he was never a threat to win that race. Horses like this can always take a step forward going from age 3 to 4, but I think he’d need to improve quite a bit to get on terms with some of the major players in here. I wouldn’t say I’m way against him – I find it hard to have a strong opinion one way or the other about anyone in this field – but I am leaning elsewhere. #7 Got Stormy is the most polarizing runner in this field. Either you believe her last race was a fluke, or you think it’s part of some larger negative pattern. If you’re willing to throw out the Beaugay, she arguably deserves to be favored here. Yet I find myself gravitating toward the latter viewpoint. Two of her three efforts this year have been poor – and I mean really bad, considering who she was last year. And even in her Kilroe she wasn’t quite herself. She had that race won heading into the final furlong at Santa Anita and she just seemed to tie up in the last furlong. We saw the same thing last time in the Beaugay, but it was even more pronounced. At the quarter pole, she looked destined to at least finish second to Rushing Fall, and then she just abruptly gave up, nearly fading to last by the time they hit the wire. As a Got Stormy fan, I hope I’m wrong, but I just don’t think she’s suddenly going to right the ship. My top pick is #4 Seismic Wave. As a 3-year-old, his connections got lured into running him in some lucrative spots going distances that are simply too far for him. His late run gets dulled as the distances increase beyond a mile, and we saw clear examples of that in races like the Belmont and Saratoga derbies. When they finally cut him back in distance, his form began to come around. He would have won the Saranac if not for trouble around the far turn and then he caught a glacial pace in the Hill Prince. He concluded his 2019 campaign with a victory going this distance in the English Channel. While he does have to improve upon that performance to beat this field, he has a right to take a step forward as a 4-year-old. I thought his return in the First Defence was pretty encouraging, as he made a strong rally from last going a distance that is probably a little short for him. The one-turn mile of this Poker is perfect. I’m a little concerned about the lack of pace in here, but I think his finishing speed could get him out of trouble. And if I’m making the case for Seismic Wave, I can’t completely dismiss #3 Hawkish at a better price. He’s not a horse who gives a 100 percent effort all the time, and that bothers me a bit. Yet he’s capable of being successful here on his best day. His return in the First Defence suggests that he’s rounding back into form as he only lost to Seismic Wave by about a length, despite having to alter course twice in the stretch. I also think it would be unwise to underestimate the speed of #1 Dream Friend. While he set the pace in that optional claimer won by Value Proposition, keep in mind that a riderless Hidden Scroll ran off in the early stages of that race, so Dream Friend was forced to chase that horse while laying down faster fractions than he might have preferred. This time he figures to be loose on the lead, especially since Mark Casse made it quite clear to DRF’s Mike Welsch that he doesn’t want Got Stormy pressing the pace here. Dream Friend probably isn’t as talented as some of his rivals, but the best horse doesn’t always win these races. Confused yet? I know I am. Mike’s Response: There is no upside in advocating for favorites in races like this, so I'll keep this short. I struggled to decide between the two Chad Brown entrants and ultimately sided with #2 Valid Point. It remains unclear exactly how good he is, but he won his first three starts while appearing to have more to give each time and, poor favorite or not in the Shadwell, he did have traffic in that race. I like his tactical speed in this race, and Chad's turf horses have been firing off the bench at this meet. I like #9 Value Proposition and think David summed him up pretty well in his piece. I thought he was the horse to beat but didn't want too short of a price on him. I guess I understand the thinking regarding #4 Seismic Wave. I have heard from others the opinion that he is better going shorter, and I suppose I can agree. I'm just not sure where I stand with him. To me, the fact that #3 Hawkish ran about as well as he did in the First Defence is a negative rather than a positive, but I may be being too hard on him there. David’s Plays (Race 8): Win: 4 Exacta Box: 1,3,4,9 Trifecta: 4,9 with 4,9 with 2,3,5,7 Trifecta: 4,9 with 2,3,5,7 with 4,9 Race 9: Metropolitan Handicap (G1) Mike’s Analysis: If we're being honest, it is more than fair to say that the graded stakes at Belmont since the resumption of racing have been anything but interesting from a wagering perspective - with some notable exceptions. Thankfully, that sentiment cannot be applied to this Met Mile. Only eight have entered, but it is a strong eight, led by the Grade 1-winning trio of McKinzie (2017 Los Alamitos Futurity, 2018 Pennsylvania Derby, 2018 Malibu, and 2019 Whitney), Code of Honor (2019 Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup), and Vekoma (2020 Carter). Those three will vie for favoritism, but the supporting cast all have something to recommend them as well. Since #3 McKinzie is the morning-line favorite, let's begin with him. He is looking for some redemption in the Met Mile after catching traffic at a crucial point in this race last year and coming away second best. I'm taking the Triple Bend last month for what it appeared to be – a prep – and will expect him to show up ready for this race for Baffert, who tends to mean business when shipping to New York. He's probably the horse to beat with his top effort, but that is something he failed to produce more often than not last year while going 2 for 7. In a race with a "pick one or pick too many" feel about it, I am somewhat against him. #2 Vekoma is 4 for 4 in his career around one-turn, and he has clearly taken a step forward in his first two starts of the year. There is no denying that if he can reproduce his Carter effort Saturday, he will be a handful in this race. If I wanted to nitpick him a little, I would say that he had the run of the race in both the Sir Shackleton and the Carter versus inferior competition, but that probably doesn't give Vekoma enough credit. He is a major force in this race, and I am in no way against him. My top pick is #5 Code of Honor, who won the Grade 3 Westchester impressively shortly before Vekoma one-upped him with his Carter on June 6th. Code of Honor proved himself at the classic distance as a 3-year-old while running well in the Derby and then winning the Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup later in the year. But he ran one of his more impressive 2019 races in the Dwyer over this track and trip before his Travers win, and he made a strong impression when back around one-turn in his 2020 debut while closing down the talented #6 Endorsed with relative ease from off the pace. He fits this race well and appears to be sitting on go for the best of trainers. I threw #7 Mr Freeze into the mix because he is going to be a price and may really relish this cut back in distance. He earned a 107 Beyer while winning the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Mile over a similar distance and layout two starts back, and he did not have a particularly good trip at Oaklawn last time. He's interesting to try to get in there somewhere, assuming his price holds. David’s Response: Mike and I have very similar thoughts on the three favorites. I’m also taking a negative view of #3 McKinzie, who just hasn’t looked like the same horse to me this year, both in his races and his workouts leading up to this Met Mile. I think #2 Vekoma and #5 Code of Honor are the most likely winners, and I just flip-flopped Mike’s order of preference. I picked Vekoma on top. I don’t buy the argument that he’s some sloppy-track freak, and I just think his Carter signals that he’s returned as a vastly improved horse this year. He’s so sharp out of the gate, so I don’t foresee him getting jammed up inside even if some other rivals want to take the lead. As much as I’m a fan of Code of Honor and think that he’s going to get a good trip in this race, he has to take a step forward to beat the 2020 version of Vekoma. While I’m giving Vekoma the slight edge, I’d lean on these two and basically use them in equal strength. I totally understand Mike making the case for a horse like #7 Mr Freeze. As a speed figure proponent, I cannot deny that he fits with the main contenders in this field. I just haven’t yet seen him break through against competition like this. I suspect he took advantage of some weaker fields over the winter. His Gulfstream Park Mile was fast, but it’s not like the runners behind him were anything special. And even in the Pegasus World Cup he wasn’t exactly facing a bunch of titans. I won’t be shocked if he does well here, but I couldn’t quite make the case to elevate him to “top pick” status. I actually think #6 Endorsed is just as likely to break into the trifecta as Mr Freeze, and he could be a better price. He made an enterprising backstretch move in the Westchester and showed some real grit to battle back when Code of Honor collared him in midstretch. He seems like he’s turned a corner for Bill Mott, and I think he’ll outrun his odds here. Mike’s Plays (Race 9): Win: 5 Double: 2,5 with 8 Race 10: Manhattan (G1) David’s Analysis: This was a funny race to handicap. As a morning line-maker, I’m always forced to begin by assessing races from the view of the public – how I believe those who wager will bet their money. It’s fairly clear to me that #1 Instilled Regard is likely to be favored here. He’s coming off a victory for Chad Brown, and Irad Ortiz Jr. – who Belmont bettors just cannot resist – has chosen this mount over other apparent options. Simple enough. So, once I had set the line, I began my own handicapping of the race by posing the question, “Since this race is far too competitive to pick the favorite, who can beat Instilled Regard?” Let’s go through the alternatives: #2 Rockemperor seems like the so-called “wise guy” horse in this race. He’s yet to win in this country, but there are little things to like about each of his losses, and perhaps it all adds up to him being good enough to win this Grade 1 Manhattan. Personally, I’m not quite sold. His Belmont Derby was good; his Saratoga Derby not so much. He outfinished Instilled Regard to get up for third in a Mervin Muniz Memorial that was dominated on the front end. Yet Instilled Regard clearly didn’t show up that day, so I’m not sure how much credit Rockemperor deserves for that effort. His major achievement is that he nearly beat United last time in the Whittingham at his preferred 1 1/4-mile distance. But where does that effort really put him in the context of this field? United’s a nice horse with a notable claim to fame, but it’s not like he’s some standout in this division. Rockemperor did sustain a bump coming off the far turn and perhaps that cost him the victory, considering the narrow margin of defeat. Yet let’s keep in mind that he was even-money that day. He got a fair enough pace to close into and just couldn’t get there. Perhaps he improves again, but if he’s going to be the second choice in this race – as many believe – I want others. Part of me would like to make a case for #4 Sadler’s Joy since I think this could be the day that many of his devoted fans finally abandon him. He’s the class of this field, but I think we have to face reality and admit he’s lost a step as a 7-year-old. It’s true that he got a horrendous trip in the Pegasus World Cup Turf and then had to alter course in upper stretch of the Mac Diarmida. But what was his excuse last time? Perhaps the Tiller was just a prep for this, but I didn’t like the way he finished that race. I’m not as opposed to him going 1 1/4 miles as some others seem to be, but I am concerned that he’s no longer the horse that nearly won this race in 2018. The one that ran the best race in the Tiller was #7 Dot Matrix. He was forced to make a wide, premature move down the backstretch when the pace began to moderate and he sustained that rally into deep stretch. Paret was able to turn him away in the late stages, but Dot Matrix had to work hard to even get on terms with that rival in a race where few others made notable runs from the back of the pack. This New York-bred handles a variety of distances and appears to be coming into this race in career form. He’s a contender. And he’s not the only New York-bred with a chance. #3 Cross Border has really raised his game over the past year. You can make a valid argument that he should have won the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic last year. He looked to be the speed on paper that day, but his connections made a strategic error in rating him, and the horse resented those tactics as he got into a ton of trouble through the first half-mile. All things considered, he ran a remarkable race to only lose by 2 1/2 lengths. Since then, he’s confirmed that he’s still in great form with a string of game efforts. This distance suits him, and he figures to be loose on the lead. But let’s return to the original question: Which of these can beat #1 Instilled Regard? Perhaps that’s the wrong question to be asking. Why do I have to pick against Instilled Regard? For such a competitive race, I can come up with plenty of reasons as to why he’s the most likely winner. Sure, he’s gotten good trips in most of his recent races, but he projects to get another one here. He has the tactical speed to slot in behind Cross Border early, and he figures to save plenty of ground from this inside post – two very important factors in routes on the inner turf course. Devamani was getting to him in the late stages of the Fort Marcy last time, but Instilled Regard was clearly superior to his stablemate. He was forced to make a premature move to the lead at the quarter pole in a race where the pace was surprisingly quick and runners’ trips were disrupted by an uncontrollable Tribhuvan. Some may point to the 1 1/4 miles as a potential stumbling block, but I think the distance is well within his wheelhouse. After all, this is a horse who closed to be fourth in the Kentucky Derby going this trip on the dirt! I can hem and haw over what price he’s supposed to be – and perhaps 2-1 is a smidge too low – but at the end of the day I just think he’s probably going to win again. I’m not proud to pick horses like Instilled Regard, but I just couldn’t convince myself to go anywhere else. Mike’s Response: It's funny to read David torturing himself over the Manhattan, only to wind up back on the favorite. That is not his style at all and likely means that #1 Instilled Regard is a cinch in this race. I respect Instilled Regard and, like David, wasn't worried about the distance. I'm just not much of a fan of his and can't bet him if he does indeed go favored. At the end of the day, I feel like I took the easy way out. I thought #2 Rockemperor ran well in the Wittingham and that he would be tough in this race if just repeating that effort. I say that mostly because this field isn't that strong for this kind of race. I still like #4 Sadler's Joy but share David's concerns regarding him. I've never bought into #7 Dot Matrix and didn't want to start now. And, as much as I like #3 Cross Border as a horse, I didn't see him wiring this field. I tried to convince myself that #6 Channel Maker could still run and that they would use his speed in this spot because I wanted to take him. I just couldn't do it. It's no fun to roll around with these races and then wind up taking short prices on top, but that's where we both landed, for better or for worse. David’s Plays (Race 10): Win: 1 Exacta: 1 with 2,3,4,5,7 Exacta: 2,3,7 with 1 Trifecta: 1 with 2,3,7 with ALL Double: 1 with 4 (primary) Double: 3,7 with 4 (backup) Race 11: Suburban (G2) Mike’s Analysis: Set for 10 furlongs on the main track at Belmont, which means a precarious start on the clubhouse turn, the Grade 2 Suburban has a field of eight, led by the polarizing #1 Tacitus. The winner of the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and Grade 2 Wood Memorial in his first two starts as a 3-year-old, Tacitus was placed in the Derby (third via disqualification), the Belmont, the Jim Dandy, the Travers, and the Jockey Club Gold Cup later in the year. Much to the chagrin of many horseplayers, he didn't win any of those races throughout the summer and fall, though his backers had excuses at the ready each time. I can understand why some may be tired of his act at this point, but Tacitus is getting significant class relief for this race, and he is clearly the horse to beat. I suppose #4 Mr. Buff looks good here as he stretches back out (longer is better for him) and sheds weight after going down relatively tamely in the Commentator last time. I like him and respect his figure power but don't think he is this kind of horse. #8 Moretti is an interesting case, as he has always appeared to be cut out to be a good one for Pletcher, but took a while to put everything together. He had been quietly moving forward after returning from the layoff late last year, and he finally appeared to find himself when stretched all the way out in the Flat Out last month. That was a wet track, and he had the best of things while always in control upfront, but he traveled strongly throughout that race and easily dispatched #6 Sir Winston coming to the stretch. This is tougher, but I am happy to give him the chance to step up again as the third or fourth choice in this race. David’s Response: It sounds like Mike and I have a similar take on #1 Tacitus. I sit somewhere between the two schools of thought on him. He’s disappointed a bunch of times, but he’s also had some legitimate excuses. He’s just a really solid fit for this race, and I agree that he is the horse to beat. Yet even if he runs well I think he may come up short again, because I think he’s running into a beast. I believe #4 Mr Buff is going to win this race. I know he’s gotten this reputation as being a big fish in a small pond who withers when he steps up to face other big fish. But I think that’s a little unfair. He hasn’t shipped well in the past, so I can forgive a few of his prior graded stakes attempts. Some will point to his Woodward last year as evidence that he can’t win a race like this, but that was a pretty salty spot, and he actually didn’t run that badly. And let’s be clear: Mr. Buff has improved since then. He went on a tear this winter at Aqueduct, running a series of speed figures that put him right on par with – if not a tier above – a horse like Tacitus. I’ve always wanted to see Mr. Buff’s connections stretch him out in distance, and I think this 1 1/4 miles at Belmont could be perfect for him. In my view, Mike is being too hard on him for that loss in the Commentator. Sure, he was 4-5 that day, but he wouldn’t have been odds-on if we had known beforehand that a horse like Funny Guy was about to step up and run a 101 Beyer. Mr. Buff ran about as well as you would have expected going a mile off the layoff – we just didn’t foresee that the competition would be so tough. Furthermore, he had to rate that day and he’s always a bit better when he gets to enjoy an uncontested lead. There is no one in this field who can press him early if Junior Alvarado lets him roll. I just think this is the day for him to pick up that elusive graded stakes victory. I have the utmost respect for Mike’s opinion, but I’ll be shocked if #8 Moretti wins this race. He is so dressed up off his win in the Flat Out when he got loose on an uncontested lead in a race full of plodders. I don’t buy into that improved form and, in my view, he’s impossible to like off his prior efforts, which are all too slow to even get into the superfecta here. We’ll have to agree to disagree on him. #6 Sir Winston would need to run a career-best speed figure to win this Suburban, but I don’t want to write him off based on that Flat Out loss. He had never tried a wet track before, and he didn’t look totally comfortable over it. He really improved second off a layoff when he won that optional claimer in stylish fashion over the winter, and I think he can get into the mix here if he takes a similar step forward second off this layoff. He’s my primary backup to Mr. Buff. Mike’s Plays (Race 11): Win: 8 Exacta Box: 1,8