Beer: Kentucky Derby analysis

1. McCraken

2. Practical Joke

3. Lookin At Lee

4. Gunnevera

The road to this year’s Kentucky Derby has been a bumpy one, and even the most accomplished of this 3-year-old crop have managed to find a pothole or two on the way to Louisville.

That inconsistency, when added to a group of 20 3-year-olds who have top Beyer Speed Figures residing in a tight range, makes for a Derby that, while maybe a bit top-heavy, still seems open to one of several different outcomes.

Unlike some of the other main contenders in this Derby, MCCRAKEN has not run what one would call a “clunker” on the racetrack. He did miss some time after winning his seasonal debut in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis (with a new top figure), which is certainly not ideal for any horse preparing for a race like the Derby, and he flattened out to finish third in his final prep at Keeneland, but my initial thought after going through that replay was that McCraken and trainer Ian Wilkes were doing something that seems exceedingly rare these days: using the Blue Grass as a pure prep.

He seems like a horse who could settle anywhere between the second and the fourth choice in the wagering, and while I obviously would prefer some drift, I do think that McCraken, perhaps more than anyone else in the field, is sure to run his race Saturday. Whether that turns out to be good enough, we shall see.

PRACTICAL JOKE has been a good horse from the jump for Chad Brown, and he is one whom I want to include at a better price. He seems like the type who can get any kind of trip in a race, so while drawing post 19 is no bargain, I’m not so sure it is something to be too worried about either. Distance is the obvious question for this horse, who has made menacing runs into contention in both of his starts this year and been turned away each time, most recently by the maiden Irap in the Blue Grass. Brown has toyed with the idea of adding blinkers for the Derby but has ultimately decided to run Practical Joke without an equipment change, which is preferable from here.

LOOKIN AT LEE drew the dreaded rail, but as a deep closer, there is hope that that starting position will not do him as much harm as it would were he going to try to race forwardly. He’s been a bit underrated, and his prep in the Arkansas Derby, where he tried to rally through traffic, was a good one.

GUNNEVERA is, comfortingly in this field, a reliable horse who just shows up and runs every time, and he has a couple of big wins on his page. He will need to catch some breaks to get a piece of this, but he should be running late, and he is one of the few whose most recent prep is a better effort than it appears to be on paper.

Classic Empire and Always Dreaming are two of the more talented 3-year-olds in this crop, but they are also two of the shorter prices, and unlike a horse like McCraken, they seem much more likely to throw in an off race on Saturday. Not that they necessarily will, but how surprising would it be if one, or both, failed to show up?