Australia: Incentivise, with 9-race win streak, favored in Tuesday's Melbourne Cup
The gelding was beaten 25 lengths in his first three starts. When he did win for the first time on a Sunday in April, at Sunshine Coast Racecourse near Brisbane, Australia, no one could have realized how much he would accomplish in the next six months.
Incentivise has won nine consecutive races in Australia, including three Group 1 races in the last two months, and was the 8-5 favorite on Sunday in a field of 24 for Tuesday’s Group 1 Melbourne Cup at two miles at Flemington Racecourse.
For such a big field, Incentivise is a very short price in Australia’s most famous race. The legendary Phar Lap won the race in 1930 at 3-5. In more modern times, Gay Icarus was 7-4 when ninth in 1971.
Incentivise was bred and is co-owned by Steve Tragea, the 5-year-old’s first trainer. For Tragea, Incentivise won six consecutive races from April 11 to June 26, a span that ended with a win in a first career stakes win in the Group 3 Tattersall’s Cup at 1 1/2 miles at Eagle Farm.
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Shortly after that race, Tragea sold a 50 percent share of Incentivise, who, as part of the deal, was transferred to trainer Peter Moody, well known for his work with Black Caviar, the undefeated sprinter who won 25 races from 2009 to 2013.
Incentivise was rated a Melbourne Cup contender when he switched stables. For Moody, Incentivise has won three consecutive Group 1 races – the Makybe Diva Stakes at a mile at Flemington on Sept. 11, the Turnbull Stakes at 1 1/4 miles at Flemington on Oct. 2, and the Caulfield Cup at 1 1/2 miles at Caulfield on Oct. 16 by a shockingly easy 3 1/2 lengths.
In each of those wins, jockey Brett Prebble had Incentivise on or near the lead throughout.
Incentivise drew post 16 in the $5.82 million Melbourne Cup, which should work in his favor to gain position in a run of approximately a half-mile to the first turn.
The Melbourne Cup is the seventh race on a 10-race program that begins at 7:45 Eastern, or 4:45 p.m. Pacific, on Monday. Post time for the Melbourne Cup is midnight, Eastern. Wagering is available through DRFBets.com.
Incentivise could be the 12th horse to win the Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double, and first since Ethereal in 2001. They are not easy races to sweep. With the winning streak, and the prominent victories, Incentivise will carry 125.6 pounds, second only to 2020 Melbourne Cup winner Twilight Payment at 127.8.
Twilight Payment, trained in Ireland by Joseph O’Brien, is one of two foreign-trained runners in the field along with Spanish Mission, who is based in England with Andrew Balding.
European-based horses have won five of the last 10 runnings, and have a chance again this year, but overall participation has been reduced substantially. For this year’s running, the regulatory body Racing Victoria has enacted strict veterinary protocols in an effort to improve safety following the fatal breakdown last year of Anthony Van Dyck, the 2019 English Derby winner who was trained by Aidan O’Brien, Joseph’s father.
As of Sunday, Spanish Mission, who will carry 125.6, was the 8-1 second choice. A 5-year-old Kentucky-bred by Noble Mission, Spanish Mission was second in the Group 2 Londsale Cup at two miles at York Racecourse in England in August in his most recent start.
Twilight Payment was second in the Group 1 Irish St. Leger Stakes at 1 3/4 miles at the Curragh in Ireland on Sept. 12.
Twilight Payment was 11-1, a slightly lower price than 13-1 Verry Elleegant, the 2020-2021 Australian Horse of the Year. Verry Elleegant was fourth behind Incentivise in the Caulfield Cup and fourth in the Group 1 Cox Plate at 1 1/2 miles at Moonee Valley on Oct. 23.
A 6-year-old mare, Verry Elleegant would be a popular winner, but it would take quite a form reversal from her recent starts to beat Incentivise.