Ask Beyer: Why some figures are adjusted at a later date

Q. I have seen races where the speed figures are adjusted at a later date. What causes a change, and does this show a high degree of subjectivity in these figures?

– Richard Ceresko, Littleton, Col.

A. Yes, we adjust figures after they have been originally published, and we make no apologies for doing so. This is an important part of our figure-making process.

In an ideal world, the data involved in making speed figures would be so straightforward that the calculations would be almost automatic. But racing is full of complexity and ambiguity. The speed of a racetrack can change dramatically during the course of a card, even with no change in weather – presumably because track superintendents can make it happen. Making figures on such days is never easy. Turf races also present special problems, particularly those in which the horses have little or no prior grass form.

The eight-person team making Beyer Speed Figures has plenty of experience dealing with difficult scenarios, but when we have to make judgment calls, we know we can be wrong. If a field of horses runs 15 points higher than expected, did the horses improve unexpectedly, or did the track suddenly get faster? We can’t be certain. If we accept the high figure, we flag the race in our internal system and monitor the performances of horses when they make their next start. Then we have a chance to look at the troublesome race with the benefit of hindsight. If most of the horses’ figures decline by several points, we will probably decide to lower the figure for the race retroactively.

Our goal is to publish a figure for every race that accurately reflects the quality of the horses. When we revise a number, that is what we are trying to do.