Ask Beyer: Slower times don't equate to slower figs

Q. How does a faster race throughout like the Blue Grass get a lower Beyer than the Santa Anita Derby? Always seems like there is a Santa Anita bias?
—Mark Foss

A. Different tracks may have very different racing surfaces. And the inherent speed of a racing surface can change from day to day. That is why the most important part of making speed figures is to determine the speed of the track.

Historically, southern California tracks have been among the quickest in the country. But after a recent epidemic of breakdowns, Santa Anita’s management has been doing many things to improve horse safety, and it has made the racetrack significantly slower during the past week. On Jan. 31 a field of ordinary allowance horses at Santa Anita ran 1 1/8 miles in 1:47.60. Had they delivered the same effort on Saturday’s track, they wouldn’t have cracked 1:52.

The racing surface for the Santa Anita Derby was slower than the Keeneland track was for the Blue Grass. That’s the simple reason that Roadster earned a higher figure (98) for running 1:51.28 than Vekoma did (94) for running 1:50.93.

And what “Santa Anita bias” are you talking about? We analyze the Beyer Speed Figures closely to make sure that the figures mean the same thing at all tracks, that a 100 at Santa Anita equals 100 at Keeneland, or anywhere else. Of course, Santa Anita produces a lot of high figures because there are a lot of fast horses based in the West. You might have noticed that horses from California won four of the last five runnings of the Kentucky Derby.

--Andrew Beyer