Ask Beyer: Choosing the right speed figures to focus on

Q. I’ve been using your speed figures for at least 20 years with good success. What is the most important figure – the last one, an average of the last three or four, or something else?

– Michael Tucci, Harrisburg, Pa.

A. There are plenty of valid ways to use speed figures, but calculating an average is not one of them because a single aberrant result can create a totally misleading average. It’s much more sensible to look at a horse’s performances individually. If his three most recent figures are 40, 70, 70 and there are no extenuating circumstances to explain the bad last race, a handicapper might conclude that the 40 represents the horse’s current ability. If the horse had an excuse in the last race, the handicapper might reasonably decide that he’s ready to run a 70 again. However, an average of 60 for the three numbers is in no way meaningful.

I begin to study a race by looking at each horse’s most recent figure, identifying the top last-race figure in the field. I can usually disregard rivals who have proved that they can’t compete with this top figure. In some cases, handicappers should look well past a horse’s most recent start if he has not been racing under the right conditions. If a horse has been competing recently on grass, on sloppy tracks, or in route races and his best form is dirt/fast tracks/sprints, a bettor might focus on a figure earned weeks or months ago.

In any case, I try to look at a figure in the context of the way a horse earned it – i.e., what kind of trip he had. If a horse receives a figure of 80 after a hard head-and-head duel for the lead, I’ll think: “This effort was better than an 80.” If he earned an 80 after getting an unchallenged lead and setting a slow pace, I may conclude that he has little chance of duplicating that figure. I am a devout believer in our speed figures, but handicapping judgment must sometimes override them.

– Andrew Beyer