Ask Beyer: Are figures trending lower?

Q. I’m confused as to why the Beyer Speed Figures have been trending lower in relation to other figure makers’ figures, in particular to TimeformUS figs, which seem to be holding pretty steady.

–Linda Michela

A. We do a great deal of analysis to insure that the Beyer Speed Figures are consistent from year to year and from track to track.

Racing fans sometimes look at a few high-profile races, or a small sample of horses, and leap to a conclusion that our figures are too high or too low in some respect. We examine classes of horses that offer a substantial amount of data from which we can judge if our figures are properly in line with each other.

In the year 2000, the average winning figure for N1X allowance races at Belmont Park was 92. In 2018, the average winning figure for the same class was 92. The numbers are not “trending lower.”

But you are correct that the speed figures for top horses — such as those in the Triple Crown series — are generally lower than they used to be. The evident reason is that modern horses are less robust than their forebears. They need much more time between races, and they have shorter careers than Thoroughbreds of previous generations. As I wrote in an earlier Q&A along similar lines, I believe that horses are raced so sparingly before the Triple Crown series that they don’t have the experience and fitness to run as fast as 3-year-olds did in the 1980s and 1990s. That’s why the Kentucky Derby has not produced a winning figure higher than 105 since 2008, while figures in the 109-to-116 range used to be the norm for the race.

When high-class horses are mature and experienced, they still can and do earn high figures. In the last four years the sport has seen brilliant performances from Arrogate (122, 120, 119), American Pharoah (120), Frosted (123), and Gun Runner (120) among others.

–Andrew Beyer