Ask Beyer: All figs are created equal

Q. I hate hypotheticals, but let me give you one.

Two horses are running today in a $25,000 claiming race:

Horse A earned an 85 winning for $18,000 last time.

Horse B also earned an 85 last time, but he finished 8th by 10 lengths for $35,000.

Would you consider both performances to be equal?

–Tom Brown

A. Yes, I would. Speed figures show how fast a horse has run, and the two 85s mean that A and B ran equally fast in their respective races.

The fact that B was trounced does not delegitimize his performance. Thoroughbred races are not like harness races, in which overmatched horses may be “sucked along” to earn fast times that they couldn’t duplicate under more competitive circumstances. If a Thoroughbred earns a good figure while being soundly beaten, he may be ready to win with a drop in class.

If there is no significant handicapping factor that separates Horse A from Horse B, I would probably prefer to B. While losing by 10 lengths he might not have been under all-out pressure from his jockey and he might be able to improve. Moreover, his bad-looking running line could give him more attractive odds than a rival who had won his last start.

–Andrew Beyer