Andrew Beyer: La. Derby winner's maiden figure needed readjustment

After I wrote a recent Q&A explaining why Beyer Speed Figures are sometimes changed after their original publication, an annoyed reader sent us an email on this subject. Why, he asked, didn’t we have the right figure for By My Standards’s maiden victory before he won the Louisiana Derby? Why did we wait to change it after he scored a 22-1 upset?

This was a high-profile race that made By My Standards a contender for the Kentucky Derby, and the circumstances deserve an explanation.

By My Standards came into the stakes after winning a Feb. 16 maiden race at the Fair Grounds with a published figure of 78 – a number that made him appear a non-contender against rivals who had run in the upper 80s or low 90s. Shortly after he won the Louisiana Derby, his figure for the maiden race was boosted to 86. Why, our reader asked, didn’t we have that figure earlier?

On Feb.16, the racing strip at the Fair Grounds became slower as the day went on. By our reckoning, races 1-5 were eight points faster than races 9-12. And in the middle, surrounded by a couple of turf races, was By My Standards’s race. If we grouped him with the later races on the card – when the track was slower – his figure would be 86. Otherwise, it would be 78.

Such situations are not unusual enough in the figure-making process, and we want our number to fit logically with the previous efforts of most of the horses in the race.

By My Standards had earned figures of 73-75-75 in his three career starts, and an 86 would appear high for him. Third-place Tapit Wise had previously run 71-70-62-59, and he would get a figure of 79 if the winner recorded an 86. Indeed, if By My Standards got that big figure, all of the top six finishers would earn lifetime-best numbers – an implausible scenario. “This looked like a clear-cut decision,” said Randy Moss, who has been making our Fair Grounds figures for decades. He grouped the maiden race with the earlier races on the card, when the track had been faster, calculated a figure of 78 and made a notation to check the race when horses from the field ran again.

When By My Standards gave a powerful performance in the Louisiana Derby and earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 97, that was not the only indication that our original number had been too low. Earlier on the card, Tapit Wise won a maiden race with a career-best figure of 77.

We couldn’t have assigned By My Standards a figure of 86 on Feb. 16, but now it was obvious that we had to make the change, and we did so promptly. Other horses still haven’t run out of the Feb. 16 maiden race, and we want their numbers to be correct. And we want the record to be straight about By My Standards. With an 86 in a maiden-breaking victory followed by a 97 in a stakes, he is a rapidly improving colt who deserves much more respect than we originally gave him.