Stop us if you’ve heard this one before. A chestnut colt with a big white face trained by Bob Baffert for WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, and Starlight Racing wins his first three starts to become a major contender for the Kentucky Derby. Sure, Improbable started his career about five months earlier than Justify – the 2018 Triple Crown winner for the aforementioned connections – but it’s hard not to acknowledge the similarities. Like Justify, who did not race as a 2-year-old, Improbable went from unstarted maiden to a Grade 1 winner in three starts. Improbable’s five-length victory in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity on Dec. 8 coupled with his eye-catching seven-length score in the listed Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs made him a finalist for the Eclipse Award as North America’s champion 2-year-old male. “They said if he could be half as good as Justify we’ll be happy, and he’s there now,” said Baffert, a reference to the fact Improbable is 3 for 3 while Justify went 6 for 6 in his career. :: 2018 Eclipse Finalists: Profiles and photos for all categories Though Improbable had his first workout at WinStar Farm in mid-May and was in Baffert’s barn by June, Baffert did not bring him to the races until Sept. 29. “He’s a different type of horse,” Baffert said when comparing him to his other 2-year-old Eclipse finalist, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victor Game Winner. “I took my time with him.” Improbable, bred by St. George Farm and G. Watts Humphrey Jr. and bought for $200,000 at the Keeneland September sale as a yearling, debuted going six furlongs Sept. 29 at Santa Anita and outlasted fellow first-time starter Stretford End to win by a neck. Baffert brought Improbable to Churchill and ran him in the one-mile Street Sense on the undercard of the Nov. 2 Breeders’ Cup card. Despite having to start and stop multiple times and then go wide, Improbable rolled to a seven-length victory under Drayden Van Dyke. That set him up for his first start around two turns in the CashCall Futurity. Despite being a bit rank early on, Improbable ran away from his stablemate Mucho Gusto to win by five lengths. His gallop-out afterward was monstrous. “At the top of the stretch he got a little lost there, then when he straightened out he hit another gear and took off,” Baffert said. “He was pretty impressive.” Improbable is a son of City Zip out of the A.P. Indy mare Rare Event. Though his pedigree doesn’t suggest he’ll excel at the distances of the Triple Crown races, he will be given every chance to jump on the trail. “We know he’s a really good horse,” Baffert said. “I think he’s going to run much better than his pedigree says. He gets better at the end of his races. It’s his motion, the way he moves. He has an efficient stride and he’s really light on his feet.” Baffert will likely keep Game Winner and Improbable separate in the Derby prep season, with one likely running at Santa Anita and the other hitting the road to Oaklawn Park.