2017 Preakness TimeformUS Pace Projector

How does the Projector work?

The TimeformUS Pace Projector attempts to predict how a race will unfold early. It displays the horses ranked by the TimeformUS Early Speed Rating – fastest in the front, slowest in the rear. The image shows where the horses are projected to be after the first half-mile of a route race. The front is displayed to the right. The Pace Projector also attempts to determine if the pace of the race is likely to be fast, average, or slow.

What is the Pace Projector saying about the Preakness?

The race is likely to have a moderate pace at best, favoring horses on or near the lead. Conquest Mo Money (#10) is shown with a clear early lead. He has been versatile from a running-style standpoint, but the outside post position will probably force him to be used early to save ground. Always Dreaming (#4), the Kentucky Derby winner and the 4-5 morning-line favorite, should get a nice stalking trip just off the leader and could even be in front if Conquest Mo Money has any trouble from the outside.

Are there any quirks to this particular distance, surface, or field size that the algorithm adjusts for?

The field size is large by U.S. standards, and that is factored into the equation. The bigger the field, the more likely the pace will be fast and contested. It is unusual for a field of 10 horses to have the “Favors Horse On/Near Early Lead” tag, particularly on dirt. The entire field has raced exclusively on dirt in 2017, so surface is not a factor. Similarly, the distance is in line with what all the horses have been running.

Based on a more nuanced, granular look at the past performances, from watching the races, knowing the jockey and trainer tendencies, etc., which horses do you think are likely to show more or less early speed than in this Projector?

Classic Empire (#5) is probably the horse most likely to show more early speed than the Pace Projector predicts. He ran fast pace figures when near the lead as a 2-year-old and seems to be rounding back into form after some training setbacks earlier this season.

Term of Art (#7) is adding blinkers and may show a little more early speed, but that is already part of the Pace Projector algorithm.

Does any horse stand out as exceptional on TimeformUS Late Pace Figures, if the pace turns out to be hot?

Lookin At Lee, the runner-up in the Kentucky Derby, has the top TimeformUS Late Pace Rating in the field at 118. Gunnevera (#6) and Term of Art (#7) are tied for second at 112. Term of Art has never run a race that would be competitive at this level, and even a hot pace would not make him a win contender.

How have recent Preakness Stakes developed from a pace standpoint?

The last two runnings of the Preakness, both run over a sloppy track, were coded red for having a fast pace. Exaggerator won from the back in the pack in 2016, while American Pharoah won on the lead in 2015. The three prior editions all had an average pace for the race, and the winners were all in the front third of the field early, including Oxbow going wire to wire in 2013.

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