Not starting this off with a bang, $50K maiden-claimers a warm up to the warm up to the main events. Had a positive note on a work from first-timer J DAVID, but he's the 5-2 morning line favorite, which would make him wholly unappealing as a stand alone proposition. Do however want to start the early Pick 5. Going five deep here and feel pretty comfortable with that.

STATES' RIGHTS among the day's most likely winners, perhaps closer to 6-5 than 5-2. Fine effort after a somewhat poor start in what appears to have been a key Saratoga maiden, and with a better break he can take a decent position from the fence. Appears to have been aimed at this target - expect him to hit. Main purpose of this race is to single States' Rights' in the Pick 5, but CULTURE WAR showed plenty of promise racing from a wide draw in his debut. He won't be the second choice but to me is the most likely second-place finisher, and a horse with an upset chance.

There's publicly available video of ILLUMINATRICE's workouts for her debut, which comes after a ship from Maryland to Kentucky. Very taken with those works and with this filly's physical presence. Moreover, she lands in a maiden race very much open to a sharp first-time starter. She's a key to the Pick 5 and probably will be playable in the win pool.

Have an anti opinion here on likely favorite REBEL RED. Maybe getting back on Lasix is all the horse needs. Maybe the performance two back stands as an outlier but will be treated more like a baseline. Several different approaches if you're against RR. Two that are capable, BEUYS and DESERT DUKE, have proven win-shy, though of that pair Beuys rates a stronger chance. Also cannot rule out BERRETTINI shaking loose on the lead - could be better than the last figure. Mildly positive on FREEDOM TRAIL, who stands a much better chance than his 10-1 morning line, though he could well come down from that. Pretty serious fade last time but might just have badly needed that comeback run following a long break. Not a strong play, but a play. 

Most confusing race on this card. Very few positives to latch onto, and I want nothing to do with the race - other than hoping for a price among the seven I'm using to end the Pick 5. 

Perhaps the betting market will sort out the relative standing of these turf sprinters more than the morning line suggests. The line suggests an evenly matched group - I see NOBALS as a standout if he returns to his 2023 form. Two losses after a belated start to the season, but neither one offers convincing evidence he can't be the same horse this year as last. Behind him there's a chance for chaos; the other "logicals" don't have much on some less logicals. I'll play a trifecta reflecting that theory and try to start a Pick 5 here with a single

Not an appealing betting race from this perspective. I do have quibbles with the line, and doubt BRIGHTWORK is the favorite, much less 2-1. SPIRIT WIND is the most likely winner here, as her Charles Town flop is easily forgivable, though RED CARPET READY's top race, which I predict she'll produce running fresh, can beat Spirit Wind. Two deep in the Pick 5.

While GINA ROMANTICA rates as the most likely winner, one might guess her win price won't match her real chance. With that in mind, Ireland shipper TARAWA got top billing - but not with enough confidence to back her. Trainer Chad Brown wins this race every year, but I'm not sure he's bringing quite the unassailable team he's often entered, with WHITEBEAM better suited to a little more ground and drawn wide, and CHILI FLAG having the look of a horse who hit a spring and early summer peak she might never again reach. Of the pace horses, I like AG BULLET, but not enough to play her. One could make a case for others, as well, but I'm restricting the Pick 5 to just Tarawa and Gina Romantica, and hoping to survive.

Find the Breeders' Futurity a fascinating race in several senses, but there are too many horses with potential for me to feel especially good about any of them. The question is how to handle defined favorite FEROCIOUS. I'm not against, against him - he's got loads of talent and surely can win, but given his post position, first time two turns, speed stacked to his outside, and the expected price, he'll offer no value. Because I do like some prices, I'm taking a dual approach, spreading in the Pick 5, betting my top choice, HANDSOME PANTS, to win, then taking the longer-priced horses I like underneath Ferocious in the trifecta. Handsome Pants has no two-turn dirt question to answer - that's the kind of race he won in his debut. And as many good things as Handsome Pants did there, there's a reasonable chance he improves.

These are solid Group 3 type Europeans in for the Grade 1 Turf Mile - can they really beat "our" best milers east of the Mississippi? I'm saying no. CARL SPACKLER merits favoritism, but not to the degree he's likely to be supported in the win pool. Not sure quite how good he is, but he's likely to fall into another perfect trip. MORE THAN LOOKS will get closer this time than he did at Saratoga - and has the best chance to run down the favorite. No play on the race alone, but will need one of the two best Americans to hit the wire first to complete the Pick 5 and to get alive to three horses in the final double.

EGLISE figures to be solidly favored. He's fine. Either of his last two races makes him a key contender, but I absolutely don't trust the horse to follow through with another top performance. It's one thing just to be against a favorite, and that alone can work as a betting proposition, but it helps to have horses one does like, and there are three here for me. TOUR PLAYER had a great recent workout with a top horse in California, and is the sort of "what's he doing in here?" entrant worth attending to. JUNGLE LAW listed at 4-1 but I'd be hoping for a little higher. Trouble in his encouraging debut, and a good dirt work (there's video) subsequent to that. Finally IT'S MY LIFE has improvement written all over him. Got all three in the Double, and will lean on Tour Player.