***SATURDAY UPDATE - Divine Gal scratched. She's replaced in the Pick 5 by the favorite, All Class.

You've got an even-money favorite to deal with here, ALL CLASS. What's the plan? With or against? Against. This isn't trainer Saffie Joseph's playground: Career mark with Keeneland starts at less than 2-1 is 11-2-2-2, hardly inspiring. To me, the horse is going to be overbet off the last speed figure (Beyer, at least -- haven't seen others), as it seems to outpace who she is. Moreover, she's not exactly a speedball, probably not fast enough to make the front, and many times on the KEE dirt, the last place you want a horse to be is pressing on the outside. Frango Electronico has no chance and I don't like Lite It Up Louie (likely higher than 4-1) at all. Can we go five deep to start the Pick 5? Might have to. I'm beating my head against the wall picking a deep closer like DIVINE GAL on top: Sure, the race has fall-apart potential, but that rarely comes to pass on this track surface. Not playing her as a one-race proposition. More talk on Pick 5 ideas as we go race by race.

Am going just two deep here in the Pick 5 and hoping for the best. It looks like one of those races where the deeper you dig, the more you get stuck in the mud. My positive opinion comes on SWEET CHABLIS, who might or might not be capable of getting back to her pre-layoff best. Were she going to a short price, perhaps I'd be skeptical, but she's not going to be a short price. No substitute for replay here, since she ran much better in the sloppy comeback than it looks on paper, and in fact sparked to life in upper stretch once extricated from traffic. Nice prep for this. As for UNION SUIT, she wore blinkers until two starts ago, and two starts ago she raced in a turf route. Dirt sprinting last time, her first such race sans the blinkers, she turned in one of her better showings despite a poor start. Since the trainer bothered sending her from Maryland for this, we can guess she's in good nick.  

Workout video could get me in trouble here: Two up for LOVE AND POETRY, and she definitely looks like a runner, even on dirt. Have written in analyses just this meet that first-timer starters are not a focus for trainer C DeVaux (at least from what we've seen), but that doesn't mean that a firster from the barn can't win. Find if very interesting they debut this filly at 1 1/8 miles. I think she'll have positional pace. As for the rest of them? (Insert shrug emoji.) Sure don't believe MAMBO QUEEN is any budding star. Oh - and if the guess on Love and Poetry's potential comes anywhere near the mark, she won't be anywhere close to her morning line.

BEST PERFORMER looks hit-you-over-the-head obvious here, and while her last-start win - a rare appearance on dirt -- came in the slop, she's produced a similar race on a fast track. There does exist a nagging question, namely, why'd they lose a solid performer for just $20K when she'd not yet run for a tag? Total mishmash race otherwise. Trainer Chris Davis seems to run nothing but live horses this year, and WINDY WALK has qualifications. KIKI KRAZY out of a cold Keeeneland barn but has potential to make the lead. Three deep in the Pick 5 and zero interest in stand-alone play.

Not sure I agree with the line in this race. Why would the No. 13 also-eligible RANDOM HARVEST be 5-2 coming out of a debut win at Kentucky Downs and SHILOH'S MISTRESS 4-1 exiting a close fourth in a rich stakes there, and with a near miss in a SoCal turf stakes on her resume, as well. Shiloh's Mistress was a hit in her turf debut, that near miss in the Providencia, but all she did there was go to the front and run, and faced with the task of rating and acting like a professional racehorse, she failed badly in her next and did so again, to a lesser extent, the race after. She ran better last time because she raced better, so while Shiloh has raced steadily for months, she still has the feel of a filly with upside. She also has some pace, which in many recent turf routes has proven essential. She looks a cut above the other "logical contenders" save, perhaps, Random Harvest - we don't have a sense yet of her ceiling. She also has to draw into the race. Included MISS HEBRIDES in the Pick 5 because she's lightly raced, has some talent, and could prove the inside speed - dangerous. Shiloh's Mistress a bet only at 5-2 or higher.

***SATURDAY UPDATE - Mitty's Griddy has been scratched

Will MACHO MUSIC really be favored? That field he beat opening weekend while capitalizing on a speed bias seemed soft. Speed remains potent, but the track has changed - at least as of Friday - playing considerably slower than it had. I'm just not sure Macho Music is more than a somewhat precocious and fairly fast horse, and I don't want him here.

Not easy getting a read on MITTY'S GRIDDY. As a rule, I don't like debut winners who come from far back, and in this case, like many others, the front-runner tired significantly in the late stages after setting a strong pace. Two things, though: Mitty's Griddy not only caught the leader in his debut win, he blew past all the stalkers, too, and did so with a 12.18 final furlong - you won't find too many closing fractions like that from a 2-year-old on dirt. Also, it looked like the horse resented the kickback and tried to start climbing in the early stages, meaning he might have more positional speed than we saw.

Oh, there's one other key thing: If the horse really is good, he'll go off far below his morning line. And if he offers a fair price, I'd take it as at least a mildly negative sign.

The value I really wanted to get involved with and should have taken on top: TERRAPIN STATION, who won well enough despite racing very green in the homestretch. There's encouraging post-race work video, as well. 

A long-winded way of saying I'm passing this race, and too much turmoil comes in the rest of the sequence to swing at the meet's final Pick 5.

Don't have a feel for how the public bets this race. Kehoe Beach as the solid favorite the morning line predicts would mean value accruing to all the other plausibles. The Kentucky Downs race far exceeded her previous peak and came at a quirky track that can play very horse-specific, I'd be against her even with a better draw the the bad one she got. Worse still, this race appears packed with pace for a turf route. 

BEACH WALKN rates a stronger chance than 10-1. Her turf-route form remains somewhat progressive and she's run well over a course that most definitely is not for everyone. I think she gets a great setup if good enough. 

No reason BELLE OF RIGHTS can't contend, either, and she's the right kind of horse, a mid-pack stalker, to get a good trip with the expected race shape. In the same vein, NEOM BEACH has pace but figures to race close, in the second flight, and if you think her turf form fits -- I do -- she should be included. So often we see on a course generally favoring speed that a horse sitting just behind a taxing pace can prove difficult to catch.

Regarding the trifecta play, the "all" button suggests laziness, but horses with no contending form regularly outrun their odds on this course. And I expect the key horses to be pricey enough to make the wager pay even if a shorter price nabs third.

***SATURDAY UPDATE - Rattle N Roll has been scratched 

The fact HIT SHOW winds up the top selection in the Fayette means I'm not playing. RATTLE N ROLL could be scratched in favor of the Breeders' Cup Classic, but I don't even trust him to win this race. WAR CAMPAIGN might be third best but brings limited upside. Guessing at one of the other listed-stakes types bursting forth? I can't find one - maybe you can.

I really liked TRIKARI to win the City of Hope Mile, thought he was that good, that he could take down heavily favored Johannes - and was wrong. Beaten 1 1/2 lengths by older in a Grade 2 surely qualifies as respectable, but does it also signify his development, for this year, at least, has stalled? At his expected price, I think that's worth considering, and you should also consider that since 2020, horses breaking from posts 11 and 12 in Keeneland turf miles have gone 1-146. 

It Trikari doesn't just go out and win -- which he might -- the Bryan Station really opens up. The runner-up in the GUN RUNNER, merits consideration at what ought to be playable odds. While he didn't get totally stopped, he did have to wait for a gap to open at the head of the homestretch while victorious BRILLIANT BERTIE sailed clear on the outside. Has this horse peaked? Maybe not. He's only raced three times and has carried his form to three venues, and his positional pace is a real asset.

Obviously, Brilliant Bertie might just hit a higher level than Herchee, but he figures second choice, and at Colonial couldn't come especially close to Trikari's level. 

NEAT has been racing since January and still has managed to hold his form, at least through Kentucky Downs, but at this point in the season has more downside than up. I'll be surprised if MANSA MUSA wants to go this far. The deep cuts worth including, to me, are DEPICTION, who quietly ran a strong race at Kentucky Downs, and LAGYNOS, who has been somewhat in and out but popped on this course in the spring and unlike several others exits a down race with a chance to bounce back.

How to put it all together? Good question. Herchee to win. Beyond that, it gets tricky.

A surplus of early speed stands out in the meet lid-closer - or so it looks on paper. Like many of the 2-year-old races this fall at Keeneland, "inscrutable" comes to mind. Some races -- like this one -- you pick as a "public handicapper" because you have to pick, not because a horse really holds appeal.