Five first-time starters -- it's hard to know what you're wading into, isn't it, with limited workout video? Moreover, the day before this racecard, I've no real idea how the betting's going to shake out, though I suspect LIL BREEZY will come down from her morning line. There's one work video for her, but it's back in June, before the gap in her breeze pattern. She's gotten back on a steady schedule and one has to think a strong 2yo debut barn shipped her from New York for good reason. As far as starting the Pick 5, I can't, not with no feel whatsoever for three of the races (2,4,5) in the sequence. Let's try to get just a little something going with a stand-alone Race 1 play. WISCONSIN GAL is the morning-line favorite and I don't have interest in her, so value theoretically accrues to those preferred. 

Trainer D Jacobson has proven pretty live this meet, but I still don't care for his entrant, AWESOME ANNMARIE, or any of the other short prices, for that matter. The other general thought: Too much early speed, and on dirt, off-the-pace horses have recently done fine, especially sprinting. POSH PAYDAY will come up pricey enough to merit a small play. General opinion will decide she's a synthetic horse, which could be true, but her two dirt races came at Tampa Bay, a track not for every horse, and she fits at this level at least as well if not better than any of her opponents.

This qualifies as one of the card's more appealing races to me. Don't know that ORNATO is going to be 30-1, as the line predicts, but assume the price will come up longer than deserved, especially if CARIBBEAN WIND gets hammered. Caribbean Wind one of the many April debuters for trainer W Ward, who's been a tad quiet at this meet. He's far from a toss, but we're just guessing that he goes on turf as well as dirt, and that there's been development since the spring. Ornato already has demonstrated he can turf. In fact, his debut came against a precocious Ward horses, subsequently sold off that sharp Indiana turf-sprint score where he got a big jump on Ornato. Ornato got his feet under him and came home along the rail considerably faster than anyone else in the race. The trainer had Ornato's sister, Miner's Queen, a good turf sprinter in Indiana and Kentucky, and Ornato's win odds should be starkly misaligned with his win chance.

The sister race to this one on Friday yielded a 31-1 winner, and that heat looked on paper something like this one: Namely, inscrutable. I can't generate any actually positive feeling toward any of these 2-year-olds and have no interest in placing a bet.

11-0-7-2. Does that read like a record attached to a 2-1 morning-line favorited you'd want to trust? Not to me. I do believe in herd mentality affecting a horse's ability to win races, and ARROGANCY has shown a tendency to run with rivals rather than past them. Also don't have a good feel for the other shorter prices, UNCLE WILLIAM and SHORTSTOP. This is how I came to long-layoff returnee SUMMONYOURCOURAGE, who also is win-shy like Arrogancy but five times the price, on the line, at least. Still, do I think Summonyourcourage merits play? Not for me. It's one thing to be against horses within a Pick N sequence and spread accordingly, but I have no plan to attack this race.

WICO, closing on age 5, has made 12 starts. He got very good last fall and ran two peak races - the extent of his history that makes him a solid favorite here. That's flimsy, and Wico returns from a long break for a barn in modest form - I am not 100% against the horse, but he does not in any way have to win. What is the approach? Only two interest me, SCOOT DADDY and CAPE TRAFALGAR. Saffie Joseph trains the latter, and his horses have been taking money all meet without delivering. This horse Scoot Daddy, in from Canada with very limited dirt form and a very fast recent work, intrigues me, the kind of horse who might have more behind him that comes off the surface of the page. Will even get involved in a Pick 5 sequence I don't love.

KNIGHTSBRIDGE is the only horse who might have a chance to beat BOOK'EM DANNO if the latter runs his race, which I expect. Let's consider it, however: Knightsbridge's two races came against a moderate bunch of Churchill 2yo maidens and with a perfect trip breaking from post 5 in a five-horse field winning off in a Gulfstream one-turn mile. Granted, both races caught the eye, without a doubt, and the chance exists this horse has star power even beyond the Book'em Danno level, but A) Knightsbridge could go to post as low as 2-1, an unappealing proposition, and B) starting for the first time since March 28 he breaks from an inside draw with at least one serious pace player drawn to his outside while facing stronger competition, by a wide margin, than he's encountered. Can't have it. Book'em Danno, proven over five different tracks, from New Jersey to Saudi Arabia, is a professional Grade 1 racehorse, a single for me. My idea within the race was trying to get EPIC RIDE home second over Knightsbridge. No workout video, but one doesn't often -- if ever - see a workout pattern like that at the TTC. ER's Blue Grass was very good, as is his draw here, 

Will IRISH ACES from a much better post position be a much longer price than TAKING CANDY? Taking Candy beat him at Saratoga but did so with a much better trip; baseline to baseline, I give Irish Aces the edge. Still, as for the wide draw, this race drew only one obvious pace player, and if Taking Candy gets away well, he could slot into a perfect pressing trip. Thus, I doubled up in the Pick 5. As a stand-alone proposition, I can't play the race.

Brad Cox has gone 9-25 at the meet and 3-3 in dirt stakes. EMERY, whom he trains, on paper figures as the logical favorite. I could see just accepting the odds-on price or passing the race - but I'm stubborn. Cox factor aside, Emery's advantage from this perspective doesn't won't align with the distance between her and other capable horses in the win pool. I can see her as "the most likely winner" and still advocate playing against - though in this case, not with a surplus of confidence. V V'S DREAM always looked to me like a one-turn horse, though understandable connections would give her every chance at two turns. Two questions: did she progress from age 2 to 3, and did whatever led to the long layoff compromise her baseline? If no and no, then 8-1 or something like it represents great value. Many ways to see a race, but her comeback run looked like a case of a horse lacking full fitness who simply tired through the last half-furlong. If she has progressed, isn't compromised, and just needed the comeback, V V's Dream's worth betting. That said, there are unknowns here that don't make me feel great. How will TWIRLING QUEEN cope with the surface switch? What exactly are MIUCCIA and HAULIN ICE? Does MY MANE SQUEEZE just tolerate wet tracks and hit a higher level on a fast track? Can't get too deeply involved.

RUNNING AWAY is supposed to win this. Seems like all the 2yo turf routes at SAR were throwing up 48 and change and 49 half-mile splits - maybe the pace she set wasn't all that slow. Do know the filly who tagged her late has stakes quality. And yet can't shake the idea that someone is going to out-quick Running Away, who looks more of a front-end galloping type, what little we've seen of her so far. Yet another 2yo maiden turf route where we don't hav a lot of information. The four selections listed are the four on the Pick 5 ticket, and I'm not getting any more deeply involved than that.