This isn't a much of a playable race to me, though were she really 6-1, MISS JEOPARDY would feel like value in the win pool. In fact, to try and leverage a race 2 opinion, I'm going to take Miss Jeopardy and GRIDLOCK, easily, to me, the next-most likely winner, as a double in the early Pick 5. That sequence, however, becomes very tricky as it goes along, and since this is a weak opinion, early multi-race play focuses on the Pick 4 spanning races 2-5.

Am assuming EXECUTIVE and not GOVERNING PARTY will be favored - I don't, in fact, think a lot of Governing Party's chances. It's PARACLETE who could offer all the value. Executive finished fast in a Saratoga maiden that at least was decent, but Paraclete had a tougher go in his last start, where he initially went for the lead, sped around the first turn and onto the backstretch at a strong tempo before being taken back, had an inside move at the half-mile pole cut off before eventually getting through on the rail, then battling a well-meant closer all the way to the line. Forward placements generally have done well over a dry, fast-playing course, and I'd love to see Paraclete snugged right into the pocket from his rail draw. 

The Pick 4 starting here essentially is a Pick 3, with Two Sharp in race 3 a free square - and drag on all payoffs. Hoping to spread into better prices in races 4 and 5 after getting Paraclete home. 

Not much to say about this. If you want to say Brightwork didn't flatter the result of the Prioress with her showing last weekend in the TCA, fine, but TWO SHARP isn't running back out of the Prioress in a graded-stakes race: She's in a first-level allowance. Didn't break in her debut but no gate problems since, so that's not going to take her down. And nothing about the work pattern -- or video of the Oct. 5 drill - at all suggests she's vulnerable to the kind of regression that could get her beat. Eat the 2-5 in the multi-races or leave the whole thing alone. No plays.

My theory on ALPINE THUNDER: He doesn't like the Parx racing surface. If true, he's an even more likely winner than the sharp GLOBAL SENSATION, unproven in one-turn races as short as six furlongs, and perhaps not perfectly suited for them since he was considered a route horse earlier in his career. This is a strong race for the level, no doubt, and on paper it's packed with early speed, so, to me, if you're spreading about, the concentration should be on stalkers and closers more than pace players.  A horse like EDDIE M has what I'm always looking for in starter-allowance races, a last-start breakout that gets them eligible for the starter condition. Since Global Sensation still has something to prove (at the trip) and second choice DOWNTOWNCHALYBROWN could wind up a pace casualty, I'll make a play.

All these 2-year-old maiden turf routes this meet - tough sledding. We don't have enough info on many of the firsters, and the second-time starters are liable to improve considerably upon their first race. Guessing game regarding who will, but THE FED'S PLOT is just such a potential improver. He ran better in his debut than first appears the case on paper, done in by a poor break. Also found encouraging post-race workout video, and will seize on those things to make a bet. BLUE CHAIR shares some of the second-start characteristics as TFP but the morning-line has him at 7-2 compared to the 20-1 on the other horse. Am ending the Pick 4 with a major spread that does not include 5-2 morning-line favorite LUCKY MISCHIEF, who already made his leap forward in his second and third starts, and does not, to my mind, exit a particularly strong Kentucky Downs maiden.

***SATURDAY UPDATE: Scratches later in the sequence has ruled out this Pick 5 play.***

This qualifies as a must-play for me because GIANT MISCHIEF rules a heavy favorite and absolutely does not have to win. Granted, perhaps the best race he's turned in came in his lone start at Keeneland, where he beat an exceedingly well-meant Arabian Lion. But we're talking about a horse who never has reached a level that will justify his price, one who now returns from the second long layoff of his career. Such horses from this barn rarely get better and often come back worse. If I'm wrong, I lose, because Giant Mischief won't figure at all in the plans. 

Alternatives, reasonable ones, do exist in a race complicated by its lack of pace. LOFTY ADJUDICATOR should take a forward placement, and I can't see what's wrong with this horse. The form he's displayed his last three starts looks from here simply like the horse he's become. He ran very well over the track in the spring despite a trip that doesn't necessarily suit him, and he's been given ample recovery time since racing wide with no cover and still turning back a worthy challenger in the Ellis victory. 

Meanwhile, you can't ignore BOURBON HEIST at Keeneland, his favorite track. I can make excuses for the three races since he won over the surface in April, especially the turf race at Kentucky Downs, which we'll call "an odds-building experience."

BROMLEY always runs well in sprints and has upside but more than the top two will find the lack of pace difficult to overcome.  

***SATURDAY UPDATE - MEZCAL MULE has been scratched

Using four of these in the late Pick 5 and don't feel good about it. In fact, this race is a main reason I'm taking a very conservative approach to the play - namely, it feels too difficult to fathom. The horse I took on top mainly comes from guessing: No workout video means no meaningful means of assessment. KEEPSAKE, the likely favorite, to me worked fine, not well enough to justify what I think her price should be. Other than as part of the Pick 5, this is a pass.

Deep dive into the QE II and I juggled the two Euros and GRAYOSH. I know the SHE FEELS PRETTY camp believes blinkers will help the filly, and that a lack of willingness to pass cost her last time. I kind of thought it had more to do with Grayosh's success than She Feels Pretty's failure. Grayosh rates on top among the Americans - but only fourth overall. SOPRANO's merits are pretty obvious, particularly that third last out in the G1 Matron, and I think she can do 1 1/8 miles American style. The connections aren't well know - the jockey has his first North American ride here -- and Soprano might come out a playable price. Same with CANDALA, who ran the best race of her career last out while fitted for the first time (in a race at least) with a hood covering her ears. She seems to have been a project, often pulling too hard, and I wonder if she's the right horse to send overseas: You'll probably be fairly paid if your guess is yes. 

Okay, the King's Plate is a restricted race, but the runner-up has open-stakes credentials and CAITLINHERGREATNESS just wore him down. And the more I looked at this filly, the more it seemed her arrow still points up. Even the turf win early in the summer over older rivals offers a data point in her favor - particularly at something like the published odds. She almost has to come out of the wash as value in the win pool, and since I'm leaving out the morning-line favorite, this is worth a dabble.

***SATURDAY UPDATE - KING KUMBALAY has been scratched, so all bets here are off 

I can't have KOMOREBINO OMOIDE at something like 7-5 from post 11. Obviously the horse is class-dropping out of competitive graded-stakes runs, and he might have worked more in Louisiana since his last race than appears on paper - but I still don't believe. Perhaps his presence alone confers sufficient value to PARCHMENT PARTY, easily the most "promising" among this group, but normally a horse - two for two, a reputation, a HOF trainer -- overbet in a long-layoff comeback. Six-year-old veteran KING KUMBALAY is who I want in a race that I have to play given my feelings regarding the favorite. KK clearly has been "fast enough" to win and the last-start long layoff comeback, which came with upper-stretch trouble, almost certainly was a stepping-stone to this spot. 
 

Only one opinion in the nightcap: COAL BATTLE has a far better chance than the 12-1 morning line. Yet another 2-year-old turf route, this one looks short not just on demonstrated ability but also on latent talent. Meanwhile, Coal Battle turned in a more than respectable stakes performance from a difficult outside draw. Looks like he should be the favorite and won't be.