Generally an unappealing race - unless the morning line is right and BERNIN HOT goes to post at something like his listed 9-5. Gladly stand against a horse taking a considerable class hike while stretching to a two-turn trip he doesn't appear to want. It's GATLINBURG, if you're playing race shape, who'd be more attractive, a superior animal who should shadow Bernin Hot all the way around. Saw enough from OVERSTATEMENT to want to get him in the mix, a horse with more upside on the day than PARKWAY and ASK ARTHUR, who have a "they are what they are look." The race looks manageable enough -- especially dumping the chalk - to kick off a Pick 5.

WEST BEACH is one of the card's likeliest winners. He comes out of two good races in New York, compromised to some extent in both, and came close to winning a $1 million stakes while beaten by a horse I see as legit. If he doesn't regress, he wins, and the work pattern since Kentucky Downs suggests he's not regressing. Do fear his win odds wind up something like half the morning line, and I'm not playing the horse at that price. And as for hooking up something underneath him, I've gotten a so-so report on SCORPIUS since making selections, leaving TEST SCORE easily the most likely second-place finisher as the second choice. West Beach will mainly have to serve as a multi-race anchor, and I'll come back from that Pick 5 with a slightly different approach to the Pick 4.

UPON A STAR looks like a useful filly who won't long remain a maiden - but between her speed figure, encouraging workout video (presumably also encouraging live), and Brad Cox at the helm, she'll probably take more win betting than she merits. If one had a strong opinion on any of her rivals, it'd be a good time to take a swing. 

Mine aren't strong, but I do have three opinions. THANKSGIVING has the feel of a live first-time starter - but her barn has a barren record with firsters in dirt maiden-special-weight races at Keeneland. It's also frustrating not to be able watch any of her works on video.

The trainer with positive stats of note is A McKeever, who sends out longshot EBHAAJ, who can't be written off after just a single start over a different racing surface. McKeever over the last five years with Keeneland maiden-special-weight starters between 10-1 and 20-1 has gone 7-2-2-1, which is fairly remarkable. I want to try and work Ebhaaj into the mix somehow.

And finally, LORD I WONDER had a tougher trip last out than the official comments suggest, and I thought she moved much better in that start than in her debut. She's another who could crash into the top couple at a square price. 

Going through the card and making selections earlier this week, this race struck me as a chance to beat the two favorites, ECLATANT and TAPIT FIRST, both of whom exit layoffs. Eclatant made a smart debut in June but hasn't raced since. June's an early start date for a 2-year-old who's going to excel in the fall, and my guess was that turf-to-dirt Wauneka, who met large fields in both her starts and has plenty of speed, might go overlooked, scoot loose on the lead, and prove difficult to catch. The feeling that Wauneka offers value hasn't changed, but since selections had to be turned, I've gotten a very, very favorable report on Eclatant. I've weighted that accordingly in the Pick 4 (races 2-5), and will limit any single-race play against a filly who might be very, very talented.

Two options here: OLIVIA MARALDA lives up to favoritism and simply is a better horse than the mass of modest performers entered against her. I lean toward option 2: The Gamely was an outlier performance, the horse has a 2-15 win mark, and she might not really want to run this far. She can make me regret it, but I left her out of the Pick 4 and Pick 5. 

The only mildly favorable opinion I have is on GOOD AMERICAN at the expected price. Her comeback race last out looked decent enough and she has something better than that in her. A small swing in the win pool, a spread race in the multis.

The horse I solidly favor, BANNED FOR LIFE, could come up playable in the win pool if the market, as I suspect, goes a little wild for MONTALCINO. And the presence of AIR OF DEFIANCE, who I'm against at a relatively short price (long layoff, barn change, tough draw), also helps Banned for Life. Banned for Life and Montalcino at Saratoga beat the same horse, Hurricane Nelson, by the same margin, four lengths. Montalcino got a perfect trip, and Banned for Life, who had to battle on a strong pace, ran the better race, though one could also say Montalcino has the greater upside in his second start than BFL in his seventh. I'll side with the stronger foundation, better draw, and likely higher price and focus on Banned for Life. LINEBACKER is the right kind of horse to pick off tiring speed and get into the trifecta, if not the exacta, without posing much win threat. Bomber HOLD MY BOURBON has a good race over the track and is on a very positive trainer change racing for the first time in blinkers, while also showing fast work. Gotta try to work him in. We're also launching a late Pick 5 - more on that in the later analyses.

If I think NAKATOMI is not quite as good as the market believes and that COMEDY TOWN is better than the market prices him, and that these are the two most likely winners by a decent margin over HERE MI SONG, I have to push hard to Comedy Town. In many cases I'd be skeptical of a horse like this, a recent improver coming from Florida summer racing to Keeneland. Not this case. Comedy Town's sharp improvement came after he was switched to dirt racing for the first time in his career. His Smile performance gives him a great chance and workout video since the horse's last start suggests he's coming to this in form at least as good as he had then. And, finally, the trainer Saffie Joseph also entered Swirvin, who doesn't look competitive but does look like he has the speed to ensure a strong tempo, a major plus for his stablemate. MANNY WAH has a better chance at the trifecta, at much longer odds, than FEDERAL JUDGE, who could fall victim to a speed duel.

Many interesting horses in the Jessamine - too many, probably, and for multi-race purposes the race is a spread. Will say that the horses coming out of Saratoga and Woodbine stakes left me cold and aren't part of my plans. I have to play MECHAYA to win at anything over 8-1, which she'll certainly reach. Visually, this filly impressed me more than any of the Kentucky Downs winners, and though DESTINO D'ORO also looked strong, her price will be a fraction of Mechaya's here. The stretchout from an extended sprint is a question mark, but watching the gallop out and guessing at the expected price, risk-reward tilts toward a play. I do have skepticism regarding Destino d'Oro (why was she 8-1 for Cox? Was her run fluky?) and MAY DAY READY, a capable filly who was supposed to run last weekend in the Miss Grillo and shipped at the last minute from New York to Kentucky. That gets me down to another appealing price, SHEZAFUNKYDRUMMER, who might never have seen the impressive winner Kilwin flying at her late, and galloped out in front after that sprint.

You can read a longer exposition in this race in the DRF analysis as well as my race preview of the Alcibiades. For the purposes of this exercise, suffice it to say IMMERSIVE rates as an extremely likely winner at what I would guess to be a much lower price than 2-1. This will scratch down to a seven-horse field at most, so even running second choice QUIETSIDE out of the exacta won't get you very far. Immersive gets singled in the multi-race wagers; otherwise, I leave the Alcibiades alone. 

Suspect BARAYE could be lower than 7-2 here, and perhaps I'm too steadfastly against her - but I am. There's speed aplenty and a natural response leads to late-running CLOUDWALKER. I did end up taking her second but don't feel great about it. The trouble that cost her in April at KEE could easily befall her again -- that's just how she runs -- and I'm not convinced she's really getting any better. I think the pair of fillies racing at Ellis this summer, MOONLIT LADY and NIKKI NINE DOORS, will wind up undervalued here, Moonlit Lady especially. Can easily give her excuses for the two turf sprint losses during the ongoing form cycle; the two wins were at least as good, possibly better, than any single turf sprint anyone else here has put forth. Nikki Nine Doors also has a win over the course and more tactical versatility than Moonlit Lady, though the latter, at her best, might be a touch faster. I'll need one of these two to win.