David's Analysis: 

She's not favored on the ML, but – likely to become a recurring refrain this weekend – SHRED THE GNAR (#3) has to be considered the filly to beat in this opener. Not only did she earn a speed figure in her maiden victory that towers over this field, she also possesses plenty of early speed in a race that doesn't appear to feature an abundance of pace. I'm always skeptical of Gulfstream form translating elsewhere so I have some reservations about the fact that she's only raced at that venue. Yet she projects to get a good trip towards the front end, and should take some catching.

CHASTEN (#4), the ML favorite, should drift up from that price, and would need to for me to get interested in her. This half-sister to champion mare Idiomatic looked full of potential winning her 7-furlong debut last fall, but she disappointed in the Silverbulletday. Her trip last time was a strange one, as she traveled so keenly early but then seemed to abruptly come off the bride past the half-mile pole, lacking any punch from there. I won't be surprised when she rebounds, but I don't think she's as likely to win as Shred the Gnar.

The only alternative that really interests me is WINFINITY (#9). This filly has never raced beyond 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt even though she possesses the pedigree and physicality to suggest that added distance should benefit her. She needs to improve considerably on her prior form to beat a field like this, but she was impressive on debut last year and hit her best stride far too late upon return this spring. Her dam was a stakes-winning dirt router, so the pedigree is there. Plus, Gmax registers her average stride length at around 26 feet, a data point that suggests she should want nothing to do with sprinting. She's worked very well here, and it seems meaningful that this barn has retained the services of Flavien Prat.

Marcus's Response: 

I guess the hope here for Shred the Gnar supporters, of which I’m one, is that Chasten proves especially popular with the bettors but, given her pedigree and connections, she really didn’t take that much money in her debut, and Shred the Gnar probably comes up well below what I’d consider fair value – which makes the race not so interesting to me.

I get where David’s coming from with Winfinity because I’m not keen on Chasten. My stabs at getting a price into the exacta are the two turf-to-dirt horses, TABLE FLIRT (#2) and FLIP FLOPS (#7), both of whom showed me enough in some dirt work video to suggest one could pop up and run better than the market expects.

For wagers below: (D) = David; (M) = Marcus

Marcus's Analysis: 

SALTY (#9) could attract even more betting than the 3-1 morning line predicts. She didn’t finish off her two-turn debut last time like a horse who really wants two turns, and to me, has much less upside than second-time starter STYLISH LADY (#11) and third-timers CRAWFORD (#8) and CONTORTED (#7). I’d have liked to see more stretch punch from Stylish Lady in her debut, even accounting for the idea she’s a route horse, but she did perk up sufficiently on the gallop-out to warrant consideration. Crawford exits a productive race won well by Shred the Gnar, whom you can get a line on in Race 1. Contorted has stretch-out possibilities and responded favorably to strong urging working inside another horse on April 21.

David's Response: 

STYLISH LADY (#11) was really the only horse that I could envision myself betting in the opener for all of the reasons Marcus stated. I'm not totally convinced about her overall ability, but she did give off the vibe that some added ground would benefit her on debut.

David's Analysis: 

I found this race quite puzzling, not because the horses with turf form lack appeal, but rather because I find it difficult to project trips for any of them. Most of the appealing options in this spot have shown very little early speed in their prior starts. I suppose a horse like MOON CHANNEL (#12) could attain better position with that debut experience under his belt, but he didn't look like a horse with any semblance of early speed on debut. He did travel well into the race and finished strongly despite not finding clear sailing until the late stages. I just worry that he's going to get dragged back from this outside draw.

WORLD BEATER (#6) is most appealing to me among those with experience since he at least has placed himself somewhere in mid-pack in prior starts. Oddly, the TimeformUS Pace Projector depicts him as the early leader here, which is really just a comment on the lack of pace among his competition. I've liked both of his turf races and will use him.

Since I'm not really interested in taking short prices on any of the proven options, I want to try first time starter SPILL THE WINE (#4) at a price. This horse doesn't have the kind of profile that is going to pull in debut support, but Michael McCarthy can win with firsters going long on the turf. He's 6 for 52 (12%, $1.71 ROI) with that move over the past 5 years. Vino Rosso isn't some stellar turf influence, but this colt's female family is all grass influences. He's worked well for the debut, and interestingly has been schooled from the gate like a horse that might be capable of going forward in this spot. I've seen some ability in his drills, and I'll risk a few bucks on him hoping that he can attain and sustain forward position.

Marcus's Response: 

I shared, to some extent, David’s puzzlement with this race and also gave real consideration to Spill the Wine, though it seems I have a stronger opinion on World Beater. The horse comes back on three weeks rest, old school, and, having found the surface he wants, I’d project further improvement. And the horse that beat him last time might be all right.

Regarding the pace, it’s not impossible that Ireland shipper SOME PERFORMANCE (#10) winds up leading, as he did in his two turf races, but, regardless, the race stands a good chance of turning into a muddle. I view Moon Channel as promising but would guess that he winds up needing even more distance than this nine furlongs and definitely ought to be negatively impacted by a tepid tempo.

Marcus's Analysis: 

Another playable race for me, this 3-year-old filly N1X allowance, which has not a surplus but a paucity of horses who have displayed real talent. STABLE CURRENCY (#3) figures favored and I’m not wildly against her, a cut back from routes to dirt sprints unlocking a higher performance level late this winter at Fair Grounds. You can posit that the route-sprint move lends upside, but I’m also giving weight to the eight starts she’s made – without any real break – since debuting in September.

FLAT OUT TIME (#4) has raced only once but has a strange history. She sold as a weanling in 2022 for $250,000 (she’s the first foal from a graded-stakes winning dam, who has a graded-stakes winning brother), but about a year later failed to meet a $185,000 reserve at Keeneland’s 2023 yearling sale. The next public piece of data came last August, six works at Prairie Meadows before she disappeared again until January, showing up at tiny Fonner Park in Nebraska. Debuting for an owner-trainer unfamiliar to me, Flat Out Time took betting, zipped to the lead, won easily, and turned in an eye-catching gallop out after a 4-furlong race. Someone liked the whole picture; the filly was sold and sent to George Weaver, a lone workout video encourages. The added quarter mile only helps and I don’t see her taking a lot of action.

MINDY’S UNION (#9) beat a decent favorite while getting a perfect trip, showing enough to warrant consideration stepping up to face other winners – but I don’t love her. WONDROUS (#2) debuted in January at Turfway Park, not exactly where and when Godolphin starts off young horses they think have a big future. That said, she does look capable of running at least as well on dirt as in her winning debut over Tapeta. Probably less interested in exotics as the top pick as a win play and horizontal wager linchpin.

David's Response: 

I thought FLAT OUT TIME (#4) was going to be one of the favorites in here – new face for popular connections in an underwhelming race for the level – which is the primary reason why I don't have her in my picks, but I suppose I could be wrong about that.

I'll just highlight a couple of options that intrigued me, since I struggled to find horses that offered much appeal here. FOIE GRAS (#10) showed some ability in her first couple of starts, including a win over Verity, ML second choice in the Eight Belles, on debut. Her last-out regression will be a problem for some, but I want to give her a pass given the layoff and spotty worktab leading into that start, suggesting that she wasn't fully prepared for her best effort. She chased a very fast pace that fell apart, and should have gained some fitness. I find it interesting that Flavien Prat sticks and I'm expecting a move forward.

The other horse I want to bet is BILYANA (#1), who seems sure to drift up from her 5-1 ML. I really liked her lone dirt start on debut last summer at Ellis Park, as she traveled strongly into the race and put in a relentless finish to run down the leaders. Routine improvement on a 72 Beyer as a 2-year-old would make her a major force here. She doesn't look like a horse who loved synthetic at Turfway, so I like her getting back on dirt. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, not even counting the presence of Flat Out Time who lacks pace figures, so I can see Bilyana getting a great setup from this rail draw.

David's Analysis: 

Here begins the potential parade of chalk through the stakes portion of this Oaks card.

There are a few mildly intriguing alternatives to likely favorite NITROGEN (#5), but I ultimately couldn't get myself sufficiently interested to endorse any of them. Nitrogen may be as dominant a force in this crop of 3-year-old filly turf horses as Good Cheer is in the dirt division. (Yes, that's a comment on both.) Her Mark Casse stablemate VIXEN (#2) did have a moment of traffic in upper stretch of the Appalachian last time, but I still never got the sense that she was going to threaten the winner. Nitrogen has just continued to move forward ever since that sneaky good effort in last year's Breeders' Cup, and she looks likely to make it 4-for-4 on the season.

Marcus's Response: 

Guess this $600,000 purse is too juicy to pass up – can’t see any other reason for running Nitrogen for the fourth time this year and back a month after the Appalachian, which came a month after her Tampa win. The filly’s exceptional, and as the year wears on, the important opportunities in this division grow more abundant. That said, she can regress off her Keeneland showing and still win this, and the Nitrogen who showed up in the Appalachian got into the race quicker and proved more dominant than she’d been in her two previous wins. I’ve nothing interesting underneath.

Marcus's Analysis: 

I’m sure many people would jump at the chance to bet LOCKED (#2) at odds of 2-1. Dream on. Of course, FIERCENESS (#4) will take action but the two seem close to the same price to me. If you think you can get home HALL OF FAME (#3) or MOST WANTED (#5), have at it – not for me. Have a lot of respect for the progress Hall of Fame has made, and maybe he does have yet another level to hit, but I wouldn’t bet on it, though I’d have more confidence in him than Most Wanted.

I know some people think this is a lot to ask of Fierceness, taking on his excellent stablemate Locked, who’s in the middle of a form cycle, while making his first start since the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Well, everything I’ve seen on workout video suggests Fierceness will prove up to the task. And it’s not just Fierceness working fast. Pletcher has set a variety of tasks before the colt in these works, and he is handling like a dream. Fierceness last year came to the Derby skinny as a rail, and Pletcher took care throughout the year not to ask too much of the colt. It looks like he comes into 2025 a considerably heartier animal. Fierceness can sit just behind the other speed, and if he runs to his recent work, Locked might not catch him at 1 1/16 miles. It feels strange to be making this argument: I’ve always been a Locked guy and harbored Fierceness skepticism throughout 2024. This feels like a spot if you’re playing horizontals and get down to the two Pletchers, you might have to pick just one of them. Not easy.

David's Response: 

I know many regard this as a strange spot for FIERCENESS (#4) given the last-minute change of plans, but I instead believe it's a much stranger option for LOCKED (#2). The Big Cap winner has made it pretty clear that stamina is his greatest asset, and I just don't see this 8.5-furlong affair playing to his strengths. Like Marcus, I've been pretty impressed by Fierceness's recent workouts. It is true that he's always been a star in the mornings, but you do get the sense that he's only now reaching his final form as a 4-year-old.

The one potential concern for Fierceness is that the horse directly to his outside, MOST WANTED (#5), is tremendous from the gate and may outbreak the favorite. That said, this version of Fierceness just seems more adaptable that he would have been in that situation a year ago. Given the small field, I'm not expecting some suicidal pace and perhaps that will help a capable horse like Most Wanted hold off Locked for second at a distance that is less than ideal for the latter. That's the only way I could see playing this race, if I get involved at all.

David's Analysis: 

The 4-year-old version of THORPEDO ANNA (#2) has become a polarizing figure. Detractors will point to the fact that 3 of her last 4 Beyers are lower than the number she achieved winning last year's Kentucky Oaks. Supporters will argue that she's only running as fast as required now, rendering her lackluster speed figures irrelevant.

I can't say that I'm firmly in either camp. I do think some are going overboard in proclaiming her to be a lame duck in this division. Sure, she hasn't done anything special so far this year, but there's also been no reason to put on a show. I would also say that the 93 Beyer she was assigned for the Apple Blossom doesn’t fully capture her effort, since the early pace of her race was much quicker than a prior allowance that resulted in a faster final time. Accordingly, her pace-influenced TimeformUS Speed Figure of 121 for the Apple Blossom is much more aligned with her prior form.

Whether or not you believe she's tailing off, Thorpedo Anna's Travers still stands on an island in her past performances. That effort suggested that, at least at the time, she possessed untapped reserves of talent which could be called upon against superior foes. Are those extra gears still at her disposal, and will she need them against this field?

I don't view RANDOMIZED (#5) as a likely upsetter, but she does figure to play a significant role in the outcome of this race. Thorpedo Anna is comfortable stalking another rival, but she hasn't had to tackle a speed horse with the credentials of Randomized in some time. If putting away that rival takes something out of her, especially now that she's running back in just 20 days, she might be vulnerable.

Since I can see that scenario playing out, I put RAGING SEA (#4) on top. She's not as likely to win the race as the favorite, but this seems like as good a time as any to take a shot against Thorpedo Anna, and Raging Sea is by far the best rival she's faced since last year's Breeders' Cup. I've been encouraged by the recent workouts in company with Randomized, since Raging Sea appears to be progressing more through training than her speedy stablemate. I appreciated the improved tactical speed she displayed last time, and that style coupled with some team tactics may put her in position to spring a mild upset.

Marcus's Response: 

For months I’ve been saying the same things about Thorpedo Anna that David says here, so I have little to add in that regard. I intended coming into a deeper dive to pick Raging Sea on top, and yes, Raging Sea sits considerably higher up the class ladder than anything Thorpedo Anna has beaten this year. In the end I think Thorpedo Anna does have more to give, will give it here, and in a short field will have a chance to take back slightly and come outside if Randomized, as seems likely, goes for the lead.

David and Marcus's All-Stakes Pick-5

The two analysts combine their opinions to come up with a Pick-5 wager ending in the Kentucky Oaks. They are using the ABC method to play multiple tickets. (Total wagers: $92)

Race: A / B / C

R7: 2,4 / -- / --
R8: 2 / -- / 3,7,8
R9: 2,7,9,11 / 10 / --
R10: 4 / 3,6 / 9
R11: 1,11 / 6,14 / 10

Marcus's Analysis: 

The Modesty boils down to a four-horse race (haven’t been able to pin down this week whether Pin Up Betty runs here or in the Distaff Turf Mile, but I can’t see her winning Friday), but likely will be bet as a one-horse race, SHE FEELS PRETTY (#7) going off somewhere around even money. Obviously, the filly’s two races in blinkers to cap her 2024 campaign were excellent, but while I respect the horse a lot, think she could be a divisional leader, the idea of taking odds-on as She Feels Pretty returns from a winter break and faces older horses for the first time seems imprudent.

Chad Brown wanted to prep SEGESTA (#3) for this in a Keeneland allowance but rain washed that race onto the main track and Segesta instead runs fresh off a very long layoff. She improved steadily last year, even finishing a nose in front of She Feels Pretty, and probably will turn out to be an even better 4-year-old. I’m just not sure she’s quite ready for this, but she’ll be a longer price than the other Brown runner, SAFFRON MOON (#8). Saffron Moon is a 6-year-old and hasn’t put together a full campaign yet, but go all the way back to fall 2022 and see her winning a Keeneland maiden turf route by eight lengths. She’s hit her peak this year and is at least as usable as Segesta, but I’m most interested in the horse just behind Saffron Moon last out at Tampa.

GIMME A NOTHER (#2) has far more latitude to improve Friday than Saffron Moon since the Hillsborough at Tampa marked her first start outside South Africa and first in nearly a year. She followed Saffron Moon into the stretch, briefly was out-quicked by the winner, then closed ground the final furlong. She’s the one set to run the better race – perhaps good enough to take down the favorite.

David's Response: 

Marcus and I are on the exact same page in this one. I also respect the favorite and both Chads, but GIMME A NOTHER (#2) feels like the right horse to take this time. She's supposed to move forward here, and I think we'll get every bit of that 7-2 ML if not a little more.

David's Analysis: 

I found this Eight Belles to be one of the more inscrutable races on this entire card. None of the short-priced options are particularly compelling. VERITY (#5) and ECLATANT (#12), the two ML favorites, have each won 3 of 4 with graded stakes wins under their belts. Yet neither one holds any edge from a speed figure standpoint, and both have some questions to answer. Verity's only competitive dirt race came on a sloppy track, and Eclatant hasn't raced in 3 months since taking advantage of a good setup in the Forward Gal. I instead want to consider some bigger prices.

There does appear to be plenty of pace signed on, so I want to tread lightly with horses who need to be forwardly placed. There are only two that in that category that I'll use.

BOURBON MEMORY (#9) tries dirt for the first time, but she's bred to handle this surface and has shown admirable tenacity on synthetic. I really like the way she trained on dirt in her most recent workout, and appreciate the way she's improved through racing this winter. LOOK FORWARD (#11) is at least drawn outside of all the other speed, which should give Umberto Rispoli some options. She's tried to go two turns in three of her five career starts, but I'm convinced that she's much more of a natural sprinter. She battled back gamely when it looked like she was going to get swallowed up in the late stages of the Santa Ynez three back. She also gets pace upgrades for contesting quick early tempos in both prior sprints. For what it's worth, Michael McCarthy is 18 for 81 (22%, $2.74 ROI) with dirt turnbacks over the last 5 years.

My top pick is EVANESCENCE (#2). I don't quite see how she's 20-1 in this race, but I would be thrilled to get anything close to that price. She did take advantage of a good setup when she won at Keeneland last time, but she also beat a pretty strong allowance field in doing so. Horses like Velvet Vortex (4th) and Shoot It True (6th) were coming off big efforts in their prior starts. They were also involved in a quick pace that benefited Evanescance, but I still liked the way this filly rallied through traffic and stayed on strongly through the wire. She had shown potential in her maiden win last fall, traveling strongly into the race and showing good acceleration when she found a split. Luan Machado isn't the kind of rider that will attract wagering support, but his style is well-suited to the trip this filly needs to pull.

Marcus's Response: 

David has a stronger positive opinion on a particular horse in this race than I do, but we absolutely share skepticism regarding the shorter prices, and the Eight Belles holds appeal because of that alone. To me, the top three betting choices literally have no better chance to win than several others.  

Bourbon Memory and Look Forward both made it into my top four. Evanescence did not. Yes, the well-supported horses David mentions from the Keeneland race had run well in their last start, but both laid eggs in last month’s allowance. That and a pace meltdown, to me, had more to do with Evanescence’s success than the filly showing meaningful improvement. I do think she’ll be close to 20-1, however, and definitely will be a fair price.  

I also wanted a horse coming from off the pace: Mine is MENDELA (#7). I generally cast a cold eye to horses who rally with some success from far back debuting in a dirt sprint, and Mendela certainly did that, but not only did she validate her debut second out, she got into her race far quicker. Visually, I was taken with both performances, and the gallop-out in her debut strongly suggests an added furlong helps her. I thought from a limited video she worked well enough over the Churchill surface and she, like Evanescence, will be a price.

Marcus's Analysis: 

It’s a turf sprint, an inherently chaotic type of race, and AG BULLET (#4) hasn’t raced since Nov. 1, is the likely favorite, and flopped in her lone start over the Churchill turf course. I can absolutely see standing against this mare – I am not. I think Ag Bullet’s exceptional. She’s capable of running right up to the Grade 1 level in a two-turn mile, led all the way in a brilliant long-sprint win at Kentucky Downs, and rallied from sixth last fall to nearly win the Breeders’ Cup Sprint over five furlongs. Five is just slightly short for Ag Bullet, but this is 5 1/2, and that’s fine. I’d lose confidence if the course takes too much rain, but I won’t hold last year’s Distaff Turf Mile against her. Her ability to rate and rally serves her well in this pace-packed sprint.

And with race shape in mind, I’m trying to get GAVEA (#3) into the mix at a price. Timing over the Fair Grounds grass course is all but impossible, but pretty sure both her races there lacked anything close to the pace she’s going to get this time, and Gavea isn’t an exposed horse in sprints. I don’t expect QUEEN MAXIMA’s (#9) form to travel from SoCal to Kentucky, especially on a course with give in the ground.

David's Response: 

I also have plenty of respect for the favorite, AG BULLET (#4). The layoff shouldn't be a great concern since she's run well fresh in the past, and Baltas actually has pretty strong stats off breaks like this in sprints. She just seems like a pretty reliable option as long as the course is relatively firm.

If significant rain falls on Friday, I could see moving up GAVEA (#3), who seems well suited to less than firm conditions even though she hasn't officially encountered them in her races. I could also move up BLING (#6). She is a bit of a tweener when it comes to distance, having gone back and forth between sprinting and routing during her career. She's handled some give in the ground before, and looks set to move forward second off the layoff for Victoria Oliver, who has very good stats with that move.

David's Analysis: 

The conversation around Oaks favorite GOOD CHEER (#11) isn't that dissimilar to the narrative following Thorpedo Anna into the La Troienne. This filly has been dominating her prep races leading into this ultimate goal, but she's faced very soft company and hasn't been earning speed figures that suggest she has any particular edge over this field.

The visuals tell a slightly different story. She has a commanding presence about her, and possesses a turn of foot that most of her competitors are unable to match. She's also quite versatile, able to sit right on top of slow paces or rally from slightly further back if they go quickly up front. Yet it still remains true that she's been utilizing those appealing attributes against vastly inferior rivals.

My assessment of Good Cheer, and my decision to downgrade her in my wagers, comes down to value. Even though I think she's the most likely winner, I don't think she's 45% to 50%  to win this race as her odds would suggest. I'll be using her in exotics along with my other picks, but I think there's sufficient reward in exploiting the value gap between her odds and win probability.

In my view, QUIETSIDE (#14) is the most serious rival for the favorite in terms of pure ability. Even though she was squarely beaten by Good Cheer as a 2-year-old, it's clear that Quietside has improved since then. She's run speed figures that are right on par with her nemesis, and has done so against objectively stronger company. Quietside has sharpened both her tactical speed and finishing ability, and her training indicates that she's absolutely thriving on the way into this race. The post position isn't ideal, but perhaps that will inflate the price enough to make her an appealing alternative.

Yet I think there are even greater value opportunities to exploit. I know the Beyer came up slow, but I actually liked the Gazelle as a race. BALLERINA D'ORO (#6) is the logical option from that prep, since she was seemingly better than the nose margin of victory after idling in mid-stretch. Those tendencies to lose focus have to be a concern in a race like this, but I think her style fits the expected race flow. She'll be on my tickets, but I see even more value with her rival from last time.

EARLY ON (#1) probably seems like a ridiculous pick to many reading this, and that's just fine. Conventional trip-watching axioms say that you're supposed to take the winner out of her last race. However, I appreciate the way Early On has continued to progress through her route races. I thought she should have won the Virginia Oaks, making a strong late run over a track that was kind to speed after losing some position in upper stretch. And last time she really dug in when challenged by the favorite late, giving nothing away on the gallop-out. I've loved the energy I've seen in her training leading into this race. She drew a great post, and she's flying way under the radar despite going out for some dangerous connections.

Marcus's Response: 

I do think Good Cheer is as likely – or close to it -- to win the Oaks as her price. I agree she’s been beating easy competition, but where’s the challenging competition in this division? There is none. Good Cheer doesn’t possess the attributes of a star but she definitely will stay nine furlongs, should get a great setup, is racing over what amounts to her home track, and – like Quietside – has improved markedly into this spring. All the buzz around LA CARA (#7) will give Good Cheer at least a mini-bump in value.

Even with Five G coming out of the race, this Oaks overflows with pace players, and the expectation of tiring front-runners shapes the way I’d approach wagering. That perspective also informs my feelings about SIMPLY JOKING (#2). Simply Joking got a poor ride in the Fantasy and probably needed the race anyway. I rate her above Quietside, but even under favorable circumstances she might struggle to stay 1 1/8-miles, and as a sharp, fast horse drawn inside several other pace players, these conditions are not ideal.

I was staunchly anti-BALLERINA D'ORO (#6) coming to Louisville last week, but watching her train has changed my opinion, and I think she’s likely to put in a solid run and finish in the top four. QUICKICK (#5) is limited, and I can’t see her coming close to winning, but she was lightly trained into her 3-year-old debut, improved marginally in the Fair Grounds Oaks, and can take enough of a step forward to get into the top four.

Marcus's Analysis: 

I’ve no special insight into this race: Everyone knows Bill Mott has few peers getting dirt horses fit to run to form following a long layoff, and I assume RESILIENCE (#7) falls into that category. While Resilience’s signature win came over 1 1/8 miles in the Wood Memorial, I wonder if a long one-turn race like this doesn’t suit him better. The only Payson Park workout video showing Resilience is from March 15. It’s folly to equate fast works with good works, but you will not see too many horses breezing six furlongs at Payson Park, and far, far fewer going that distance in 1:13 and change. I suppose it’s not impossible this horse comes up a marginally fair price. As for the rest of them: Shoulder shrug. I got no fancy under ideas and took logical horses second and third, and this race as a stand-alone proposition will be a pass for me.

David's Response: 

I won't be surprised when RESILIENCE (#7) just proves better than this group, layoff or not. I'm not way against him by any means, but I do think one interesting alternative is LAT LONG (#2). He's not exactly a winning type, but he has run several races in his career that give him a real chance at this level. Most of those were two-turn affairs, but he strikes me as one that may actually be better suited to a one-turn mile where you naturally get more pace for a closer. He was recently purchased for $125k at auction and switched to Doug O'Neill, who admitted doesn't do great with these moves. Yet he will also be a square price and has legitimate credentials in a spot where it's far too easy to poke holes in his competitors.

David's Analysis: 

I didn't have a strong feel for this maiden finale. I'll let Marcus cover firster TETIAROA (#8), who I have in the mix. I just wanted to side with a more experienced rival.

ORAIA (#2) looked like she actually ran into a decent rival in winner Listen and Learn on debut at Turfway. This filly traveled willingly into the race, and briefly had to wait in traffic at the quarter pole before closing well between horses. I don't mind the surface switch at all with her being a daughter of strong dirt influence Gun Runner. This is a minor step up in class, but she's still appealing with obvious upside and these aren't connections who will take a ton of money.

Marcus's Response: 

I saw “blocked” in Oraia’s short comment, saw she was a Gun Runner, and made a beeline for the replay, but “blocked” is too strong a word for the trouble she had, and her performance left me wanting just a bit more.

TETIAROA (#8) – great example of a horse with fast works on the page whose breezes also hold visual appeal. Not only has she worked fast, but she has worked strongly past the wire, around the turn, and well onto the backstretch, long gallops-out seemingly intended to fully prime a first-time starter to win.

Since David began this exercise mentioning morning lines, we can end it there, too. Granted, the last several months have been somewhat fallow for this barn, considering their strike rate at earlier points, but any Phil Bauer trained debut runner who’s shown real talent in the morning is going to be very well supported, and unless those breezes have been telling lies, the horse in no universe would be 8-1.