Taking a stand against the program favorite in this turf mile for maiden 2yo fillies. She is #8 Sea Runner, sired by Gun Runner and sibling to G1 turf winner Johannes. It is possible Sea Runner will win first out, but her trainer has lost with his last 15 first-time starters in turf routes. Win or lose, Sea Runner is a pass as the program favorite.

#5 Caitlin Runner is worth backing in her second start. Her debut was only a prep; she finished fourth in the dirt sprint. She is bred for turf. Her dam was a two-turn turf mare, first-crop sire Caracaro has produced a turf winner. With a debut prep under her belt and switch to a turf route, Caitlin Runner should move up a ton. Main betting strategy is a win bet and $8 play in the double ($2 minimum).

Both recent starts by #2 Midnight Love were last-place finishes, but he did not have a fair shot in either. Two back was a turf race, which is not his surface. Last out, he faced older. Now he is back with 3-year-old claiming company, he is a three-time winner and the field’s only multiple winner. He won his last two starts against 3yo claiming rivals, Midnight Love could upset at 5-1 program odds.

Betting strategy is a win bet on Midnight Love, and $8 play in the exacta boxing him with last-out maiden winner #3 Demotivate and class dropper #4 Asian Matriarch. Will toss out program favorite #5 J B Strikes Back on principle. His price is too short at 5-2.

The chalk stands out in this N1X turf mile – top choice #5 Don’t Fight the Fed at 5-2 and #1 Known Idea at 2-1. Don’t Fight the Fed fell short by only a neck at this class/level/surface two back, and drops off a third in a stakes. Known Idea missed by a neck both recent turf starts, sprint and a route, and is quick enough to make the lead from the rail. The others are not fast enough. Betting strategy is merely the start of a $21.50 play in the pick three (50-cent min).

Another chalk that looks solid. #7 Good With People is a class-drop front-runner in a field without much pace. A two-time stakes winner early in his career including a 2yo Cal-bred stakes at Del Mar in 2020, ’People drops from N2X/optional $80k claiming and can win with a front-running/pace-pressing trip. Trainer Peter Miller won with 5 of his last 6 favorites off 60 to 180 days. Same pattern for Good With People. Although a token “action bet” might be considered on Good With People at 2-1 or higher, ultimately this race is a pass except for it being the middle leg of a pick three that began a race earlier. No plays.

This N2X turf sprint is begging for an upset winner. Top choice #4 Zoffarelli is sharp, but prefers longer than five furlongs; second preference #2 Johnny Podres has won at the distance but has not raced in two months. Program favorite #7 Mubtadaa faces other speed, with a rider who entered the weekend having not won a race in two months. Knock, knock, knock.

#8 Cane Creek Road is the longshot play off a better-than-looked third at Santa Anita. He broke through gate before the start, lost ground wide on the turn, and finished evenly. Now he returns to the Del Mar course on which he is a two-time winner, with a versatile style that allows him to be positioned midpack in a race likely to unfold at a legitimate pace. Cane Creek Road is 8-1.

Betting strategy is a win bet on Cane Creek Road, and $10 play in the exacta ($1 min). If the races 3-5 pick three is still live, it will be live to many. This race is a spread.

Second-time starter #8 One Magic Philly would be an overlay at 8-5 or higher, based on her better-than-looked runner-up debut. She might be offered at that price, because first-time starter #6 Seismic Beauty is the 9-5 program favorite with a series of fast works. She will have to be special to defeat One Magic Philly.

In her debut, One Magic Philly veered in and was off slow, she lost ground racing four- and five-wide on the turn, and battled through stretch to “win” the race for second place over Normandy Queen, the program favorite in race 4 for maidens on Friday. Off that super debut, One Magic Philly should be tough to beat unless Seismic Beauty is extraordinary.

Betting strategy focuses entirely on One Magic Philly: win bet and key in a $10 play in a daily double ($2 min).

Although top choice #5 Devil Be Me is the most probable winner in this Cal-bred turf mile, second preference #6 Bert’s Prospect is the horse to bet due to a discrepancy in odds. Devil Be Me looked good winning his comeback, he is the 5-2 program favorite. The knock is a short price.

Bert’s Prospect is listed 10-1, with an excuse for his misfire last out. He improved every start until last time when he was caught wide, never found cover, and chucked it on the far turn. His underrated trainer Sean McCarthy opted then to freshen him for Del Mar. Here we are, two and a half months later, and Bert’s Prospect is ready to resume his upward pattern.

Betting strategy is a win bet on Bert’s Prospect, and a $10 play in the exacta ($1 min) that includes top choice Devil Be Me and third preference #9 El Rey Dorado.

This N1X route lost is appeal when McVay landed on the also-eligible list. He is scratched. #7 Cornell faces older for the first time after a narrow loss in the Los Alamitos Derby. Cornell is no great shakes, nor are others. This race is just an ordinary entry-level allowance that someone will win. But with minimal confidence in Cornell and no apparent upset candidates, it’s a pass race. No plays.

With due respect to top-choice favorite #10 Old Pal and Del Mar horse-for-course veteran #8 Carmelita’s Man, they offer limited wagering value. Even though Carmelita’s Man is listed at 8-1, he has lost a step since winning this Cal-bred turf stakes the last two years. #2 Catalina Eddy stretches out in top form, but he is only 7-2.

A bomber worth backing is back-class veteran #7 None Above the Law at a crazy price of 15-1. He won a highly rated dirt stakes last out (four runners) and has a touch of “back class.” None Above the Law paid $23 winning the G2 Del Mar Derby (turf) here in 2021. He has improved each start since he was claimed this winter for $50,000 by Jorge Periban.

None Above the Law’s rider Antonio Fresu is slumping, but that can be overlooked due to the gelding’s 15-1 morning line. A sharp horse moving up the ladder at a big price is always temping. Betting strategy is win and place, and a $10 play in the exacta ($1 min).

A repeat victory by #2 Adare Manor in the G1 Clement L. Hirsch is expected. She could be the controlling speed again; both recent starts were dominating wins by open lengths. The knock is price and possible pace pressure from the inside. Adare Manor will be heavily favored against a solid field of fillies and mares including three with upset credentials – #3 Scylla, #5 Desert Dawn and #8 Pretty Mischievous.

Except for a tendency to occasionally break a step slow, and pace rival #1 Flying Connection to possibly pester, Adare Manor enters with little to fault. But her 3-to-5 morning line is too short against this field. It inflates the odds on the three upset candidates. They are the key to this race.

Pretty Mischievous, champion 3-year-old filly a year ago, makes her third start back with excuses for two recent losses (needed her comeback, slow pace next out). Pretty Mischievous has trained forwardly, arrived in California one week ago, and should deliver the best race of her form cycle. She is listed at a curious 8-1. She could go lower.

Desert Dawn is cranked for her comeback. Unraced in more than three months, runner-up in this G1 the past two years, Desert Dawn tipped her readiness with a flashy team drill July 27 in company with stakes winner Shady Tiger, program favorite Friday in the Real Good Deal Stakes.

 Scylla won three fast races at Churchill Downs including a G2 last out. She is fourth preference. Adare Manor could win, perhaps she should win, but her rivals are solid at big prices. Betting strategy is a $15 play in the exacta ($1 min) mostly going against Adare Manor due to the odds. Remember, there is no such thing as a "sure thing."

#8 Alpha Omega is qualified to upset this maiden-62.5k turf route at 8-1 in the program. He trained well into his February debut, but dueled and tired. Now he drops in class, stretches out, and make his first start under Edwin Maldonado. He and trainer John Shirreffs are 3-for-4 the past five years with comebackers off more than four months including $35 winner Lambeau.

The others in the field look the same. Secondary contenders include #4 Leading, who has improved since he was gelded in April. #6 Big Juanito is reunited with Hector Berrios, who rode him to a runner-up finish two starts back vs. similar.

Betting strategy centers on the longshot front-runner. It’s all or nothing, win and place, on Alpha Omega.