Even if career maiden #3 Broski is the most probable winner of this turf mile, he cannot be trusted after nine defeats including five straight in-the-money finishes. He just can’t seem to seal the deal. Two rivals in the Saturday opener have a chance to upset the 7-5 program favorite.

#4 Tempus Volat showed run both starts this year in the Midwest, finishing third and fourth. He makes his California debut for new trainer Leonard Powell, who has won with 8 of his last 20 starters in Del Mar maiden turf routes. #1 Lorenzo Bernini offers pedigree appeal. He finished a distant fourth in his debut in a dirt sprint, but is bred to run long on turf. Sired by Authentic, Lorenzo Bernini is a sibling to graded turf-route stakes winners Arklow and Maraud.

While acknowledging Broski could finally break his maiden in his tenth start, both Tempus Volat and Lorenzo Bernini have greater upside at higher odds, listed 7-2 and 4-1 respectively. Betting strategy is a $19 play in the pick three (50-cent minimum), $10 play in the double ($2 min) and $12 play in the exacta ($1 min). Most wagers are contingent on beating the favorite in race 1. (Race 3, third leg of the pick three, will have a maximum of 10 runners.)

#7 Self Sufficient should win this $25k claiming N2L sprint, which will be his first start in a claiming race and first since he was gelded. But what was the point for his blazing workout last week (:46.40 half-mile) other than an “advertisement” hoping he will be claimed? Self Sufficient is fast on figs, dropping in class, and benefits going route to sprint. He almost looks too obvious.

#1 Hard to Figure (SCRATCHED) would have been a contender, but he drew the rail and scratched. Top choice Self Sufficient is listed 5-2, but likely to start much lower. He is already a stand-alone single in the early pick three; vertical-wager strategy mostly insists on a win by Self Sufficient a longshot completing the exacta. Three double-digit longshots to complete the exacta are dropper surface-switcher #4 Targaryis, shipper #8 Yourmystyle, and dropper #11 Jaguar Jon.

Betting strategy is a $12 play in the exactas ($1 min) that keys Self Sufficient on top three times, and once underneath.

Race 3

It is possible that top choice #3 Summer Lake has lost interest in being a race mare. It’s been more than a year since she ran a good race; she pressed and cracked in her recent comeback. But there also is a chance that the drop from open N1X to Cal-bred N1X/optional $20k claiming will wake her up. Summer Lake is the tepid choice; she figures for a good trip forwardly placed behind likely pacesetter #5 Mirinda.

Mirinda could wire the field, although neither previous turf start was that great. #8 No Cap merits longshot consideration first start back; her turf starts last year were not bad. The truth is, this race is a scramble. It is a split of race 5 and the anchor leg in a pick three that began in the first race.

No bets this race except for the pick three that includes “all,” and presses to a handful of contenders including Summer Lake, Mirinda, #2 Cayucos and #8 No Cap.

#8 Brant cost $3 million at a 2-year-olds in training sale, and he has worked well enough to merit horse-to-beat status in this maiden sprint. The expensive son of Gun Runner is listed 3-1 second choice, but he could go favored. The surprising program favorite is his Bob Baffert-trained stablemate #5 Balboa, who reportedly has speed and also has worked well. Balboa is listed 5-2. When Baffert starts two in the same race, both usually are “live.” Brant and Balboa are the focus, though there is one longshot is worth considering.

#10 L Rankin is the only entrant who has started. He finished second with a troubled trip in his debut at Los Alamitos, and though Del Mar maiden 2yos are much tougher, L Rankin enters with an experience edge and a generous morning line. He is listed 8-1.

Betting strategy will insist on L Rankin outrunning his price. It’s a $10 play in the exacta ($1 min) that requires longshot L Rankin split the Baffert pair.

This Cal-bred allowance turf sprint is almost as difficult as the first division, race 3. Late-runner #5 Blue Wildcat is preferred off five straight in-the-money finishes at this level. She’ll get there sooner or later, but her closing style puts her at the mercy of pace. Unfortunately for her, this race could unfold at a tepid clip. There’s not much speed.

#1 Dorie Miller is another closer potentially compromised by pace, while maiden winner #8 Young Love and #7 Guiltyofhavingfun are potential pacesetters. The maiden win by Young Love was only okay, and not fast enough to warrant backing her as program favorite against winners. Wagering strategy will focus on Blue Wildcat and Dorie Miller. It’s a small $8 play in the pick three (50-cent min).

#2 Issa Court should win this Cal-bred N1X/optional claiming dirt mile. She drops from a third-place finish vs. open company, she has won this condition already (entered for the $20k optional tag), and she has speed for a pressing trip. Her 3-1 program price is not likely to hold, but she would offer value at 5-2.

Betting strategy is a win bet at the right price, and a $10 play in the exacta that insists Issa Court finish first or second. Exacta-mates underneath include longshot stretch-out #3 A Fleet Ride, listed 12-1. Others are #5 Nothing Is Forever and #9 Big Celebration.

Maiden 2-year-old fillies race a mile on turf. It’s uncharted territory for most, and there really isn’t much to go on. First-time starter #7 City Lady debuts for a trainer-jockey combo (Michael McCarthy, Flavien Prat) that won with its last two Del Mar maiden juvenile turf-route firsters. Sired by City of Light and produced by a Tapit mare, City Lady appears well-meant.

Program favorite #6 Got the Ring already has a prep race under her belt, a respectable fourth-place finish in a sprint. She stretches out, is bred for the distance, and could make an easy lead.  Meanwhile, there is an upset candidate. #5 Olivia has targeted this maiden turf mile for weeks; the War of Will filly has shown promise in the mornings and is listed 12-1. Betting strategy is a $12 play in the exacta ($1 min) that keys longshot Olivia with the two favorites. Also, a small win bet on Olivia.

#2 Nysos probably will win this Grade 2 dirt route based on high figures, ability around two turns, and brilliant 58-flat work last weekend. The knock on Nysos is price. He is listed 3-5 for trainer Bob Baffert, whose record is soft in this race. Baffert is 1-for-11 with San Diego favorites; six lost at odds-on lost (Arabian Knight, Defunded, Arrogate, Paynter, Congaree and Silver Charm). It’s trainer-stat gobbledygook, because Nysos looks like the real deal.

But no favorite is invincible, and Baffert-trained front-runner #3 Mirahmadi offers value at 8-1 in the program. Mirahmadi is expected to set the pace, and he could get brave. Although it is more likely that Nysos wears him down, the odds discrepancy mandates a play on the “other Baffert." Betting strategy focuses on the Baffert pair. It’s a $10 play in the exacta ($1 min), a win bet on Mirahmadi and $12 play in the double ($2 min) on races 8-9.

Michael McCarthy-trained comebacker #7 Spicybug  can spring an upset over McCarthy-trained favorite #10 Pushiness in this turf sprint stakes for fillies and mares. Spicybug, listed 5-1, runs well fresh and figures for a good trip within striking range of her quicker stablemate.

Pushiness could steal it, but her speed seems to carry better on dirt than turf. Others entered in this wide-open stakes include closer #6 Uncorked, who wants more than five furlongs; along with #4 Ang N Ash and #2 Imaboutago.

Hopefully the double from race 8 is live and cashing out to Spicybug and Pushiness. Regardless, this is the first leg of the late pick three that has a 15 percent takeout rate. It’s a $30 play in the late pick three ($3 minimum).

A modest field of sprinters entered the Grade 1 Bing Crosby. It’s a weak race, which is fine for the two likely to control the pace. They are #5 World Record and #3 Hejazi.

World Record is fast; his last-out runner-up finish in a low-rated Grade 3 was better than the figure. He dueled, put away odds-on Skelly, and got worn down. Strong try, and there aren’t any Skellys in this field. World Record is the top choice. Hejazi is speed, second start back from a long layoff and Grade 1-placed twice in his career. The gamble is the race will be won by one of the two speedsters. If they falter, anything goes from off the pace. No bets.

Entry-level allowance horses go a mile on turf, and French import #1 Suchet is worth backing at a generous 8-1. He won this condition overseas, but the purse was so small he remains N1X-eligible in the U.S. His trainer John Sadler won two races here last summer with international shippers making their U.S. debut (Full Serrano from South America, Raw Ability from Europe).

This field has lots of speed, which does not do program favorite #6 Flyover any favors as he moves up in class after defeating Cal-breds by a nose. A crazy longshot worth consideration is #4 Rexford, a sprinter stretching out in top form. But the play is the Frenchie. Hopefully the pick three is cashing out to Suchet. If not, a straight win bet is recommended and a $12 play in the exacta that tosses favorite Flyover and includes Suchet, Rexford, #5 Cuban Confusion and #8 Big Bet Jafinsafa. The exacta is mainly for the sake of action.