Daily Racing Form Southern California handicapper Brad Free provides his selections, analysis and suggested wagers for Saturday, Aug. 9 at Del Mar.

Date
Title
Schedule
Description

Brad Free’s top picks for each race (posted Thursday)

Brad Free’s analysis of top races (posted Friday)

Betting strategies (tickets you can play) based on the analysis (posted Friday)

Tickets for multi-leg tickets (posted Friday)

Picks, analysis, and suggested wagers are made prior to raceday scratches.

Selection Title
Selections
Analysis Title
Analysis
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Races
Race
Race 1
Race Description
OC80k/N1X
Expert
Selections

6-Triple Diamonds

3-Its a Cinch

7-Uncle Dude

1-McKinzie Street

Analysis

Speed is powerful in turf sprints this summer. Through Thursday, 16 of 19 were won by horses positioned 1-2-3 early. But the profile will be tested in this N1X for 3-year-olds, because this race is loaded with speed. Five of the seven entrants are front-runners or pace-pressers. #6 Triple Diamonds matches the speed-friendly profile. He is a pace-presser whose versatility allows him to tuck just off the pace. First start in two months for high-percent trainer Mark Glatt, and a winner over the Del Mar course last fall, Triple Diamonds is the proper choice and proper wager at 4-1 in the program.

#3 Its a Cinch defeated Triple Diamonds when they met June 1, but Its a Cinch faces more heat this time. He is second preference based on wins in his last two starts on turf. The deep closer #7 Uncle Dude is up against a difficult speed-friendly profile, but this race could fall apart. Uncle Dude has worked well, adds Lasix for his 3-year-old debut, and will be rolling late. Betting strategy will focus on top choice Triple Diamonds: win bet, and single in an $18 play in the pick five (50-cent minimum) that also singles odds-on Desert Gate in race 4.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Win (3-1 minimum)
Bet Horses
6
Bet Type
Pick five
Bet Horses
6 with 2, 3, 4, 7, with 1, 8, 9 with 5 with 3, 4, 5
Race
Race 2
Race Description
MSW
Expert
Selections

3-Bottle of Rouge

2-Brooklyn Blonde

7-Bad Manners

4-Super Corredora

Analysis

Debut runner-up #3 Bottle of Rouge and first-time starter #2 Brooklyn Blonde top this sprint for 2-year-old maiden fillies. Bottle of Rouge was only prepping first out, a race won by odds-on stablemate Himika. Since then, Bottle of Rouge worked well in company including an Aug. 2 team work with Desert Gate, favored to win the Grade 3 Best Pal Stakes, race 4. However, Bottle of Rouge is not considered among the elite fillies trained by Bob Baffert. She is no bargain at 2-1.

Brooklyn Blonde has worked fast and should come out firing even at this six and one-half furlong trip. ’Blonde looked good working from the gate Aug. 2; juvenile progeny of Gun Runner have won at a 19 percent clip first out, and trainer Michael McCarthy is loaded with juvenile fillies. Two other contenders are #7 Bad Manners, who has worked well but is from a stable having a rough go this summer. #4 Super Corredora merely split the field first out, with no visible alibi. She raced on the inside, and might not have liked it there. She should improve second time out. Betting strategy is a $14.50 play in the pick three (50-cent min) that singles the odds-on favorite in race 4.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Pick three
Bet Horses
2, 3, 4, 7 with 8, 9 with 5
Bet Type
Pick three
Bet Horses
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 with 1, 8, 9 with 5
Race
Race 3
Race Description
MSW Cal
Expert
Selections

1-Godavri

8-Fancy Facts

9-Zip Me Up

6-Grievous Angel

Analysis

Another turf sprint, and program favorite #1 Godavri looks tough in this Cal-bred filly maiden race based on back-to-back runner-up finishes at Santa Anita. She is listed 2-1. However, #8 Fancy Facts is quick and racing for the first time over a course that promotes speed. Fancy Facts could be long gone, while first-time starter #9 Zip Me Up offers appeal at higher odds than the first two preferences.

Zip Me Up is by high-percent debut sire Om; the filly’s dam has produced three debut winners. Those include Zip Om, full brother to Zip Me Up and also trained by Carla Gaines. Based on her solid works, Zip Me Up is cranked and ready. Though she is third preference, she is the key due to odds higher than her main rivals. Betting strategy is a win bet on Zip Me Up, and a $10 play in the exacta ($1 min) that keys Zip Me Up.

 

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Win (3-1 minimum)
Bet Horses
9
Bet Type
Exacta key box
Bet Horses
9 with 1, 4, 6, 8
Bet Type
Exacta box
Bet Horses
1, 9
Race
Race 4
Race Description
Best Pal Stakes (G3)
Expert
Selections

5-Desert Gate

4-Pavlovian

1-Brigante

3-St Petersburg

Analysis

#5 Desert Gate is simply faster than his rivals in this Grade 3 for 2-year-olds. He holds a 30-point advantage on Beyer Speed Figures and should win at a short price. He is not the best juvenile prospect trained by Baffert, but he figures to win this stakes by default. Desert Gate is a single in the pick three and pick five wagers that began earlier, and also an opening-leg single in a $9 play in the middle pick four (50-cent min).

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Pick four
Bet Horses
5 with 3, 4, 5 with 1, 2, 6 with 1, 5
Race
Race 5
Race Description
OC80k/N1X
Expert
Selections

3-Eiffel

4-Innovative

5-Ribbons

8-Hey Lil Lady

Analysis

#3 Eiffel stretches out from an impressive debut victory at six furlongs; #4 Innovative is proven at two turns. She finished second last out behind subsequent G2 winner Thought Process. It’s a close call in this N1X turf mile, but Eiffel won her debut like she might be very good. She uncorked a huge late kick to get up; two turns should be in her wheelhouse. Eiffel is listed 5-2. The parimutuel dilemma regarding Eiffel is it makes little sense to take a short price on a filly facing winners and running long, both for the first time. Eiffel is the right choice, but the wrong price. Innovative, meanwhile, is proven at the class level and distance.

A “longshot” beckons in the form of #5 Ribbons, who wired maidens last out at 28-1 odds. Trainer Leonard Powell has a long history of maiden winners who wheel right back and win their next start (23 percent wins past five years, $5.19 ROI per $2 win bet). Ribbons has raced only twice; her comeback win was her first start since December. Ribbons has room to improve, and she could slip through the cracks. She is listed 5-1. We’ll take a shot and back the overlaid third preference to win. Also, a $12 play in the exacta ($1 min) that insists Ribbons finish one-two.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Win (4-1 minimum)
Bet Horses
5
Bet Type
Exacta key box (three times)
Bet Horses
5 with 3, 4
Race
Race 6
Race Description
OC50k/N1X
Expert
Selections

6-Privman

1-Lyell's Song

2-Feel the Magic

7-Brazenly

Analysis

#6 Privman could be loose on the lead in this N1X dirt mile, based on his front-running maiden win three weeks ago. The pace scenario gives him the edge, although #1 Lyell’s Song earned a higher Beyer Speed Figure (93 vs. 88) finishing second by a neck at this allowance class level last time. A bettor probably needs to include both Privman and Lyell’s Song, while the improving #2 Feel the Magic and late-runner #7 Brazenly figure as secondary contenders. This is a small field with only seven runners, therefore a pass. No bets.

Plays Title
Plays
Race
Race 7
Race Description
OC100k/N3X
Expert
Selections

5-Astronomer

2-Gold Phoenix

6-Air Force Red

1-Scoobie Quando

Analysis

A stakes-caliber field entered this allowance turf mile, and a case could be made for most of the runners. But #5 Astronomer enters with attributes that include a generous price on the morning line at 5-1. Astronomer needed his recent comeback, a restricted stakes that was his first start in five months. He missed by only two lengths. The veteran figures for a pressing/stalking trip second start back, he is a two-time winner over the Del Mar turf. This race could go a number of ways, but at the price, Astronomer is the play.

Program favorite #2 Gold Phoenix is the class of the field, but he scratched July 27 from his scheduled comeback and is using the Saturday allowance to prep for the G2 Del Mar Handicap on Aug. 30. Gold Phoenix does not “have to” win this prep, particularly not at 6-5 program odds. #6 Air Force Red and #3 Final Boss are front-runners who could get in each other’s way; #1 Scoobie Quando is a new shooter making his California debut against turf horses that take turns beating each other. At 12-1 in the program, for a winning stable, Scoobie Quando is worth fiddling with. Betting strategy focuses on Astronomer and Scoobie Quando to win, and an $18 play in the trifecta that insists Astronomer and Scoobie Quando both hit the board.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Win (3-1 minimum)
Bet Horses
5
Bet Type
Win (8-1 minimum)
Bet Horses
1
Bet Type
Trifecta
Bet Horses
1, 5 with 1, 5, with 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8
Bet Type
Trifecta
Bet Horses
1, 5 with 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8 with 1, 5
Bet Type
Trifecta
Bet Horses
2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8 with 1, 5 with 1, 5
Race
Race 8
Race Description
10k claiming N2L
Expert
Selections

11-Broadway Unions

6-Whats the Buzz

7-Majestic Palisades

4-Seager Man

Analysis

This $10k claiming sprint, non-winners of two lifetime, did not attract quality. But the race is handicap-able, and #11 Broadway Unions looks tough off his runner-up finish last out from the rail. He drew a more desirable post this time, outside in the 11-hole. Front-runner #6 Whats the Buzz looms an upsetter. He is quick, and so is #7 Majestic Palisades#4 Seager Man fits off his maiden win two back. Betting strategy is a $24 shotgun play in the double ($2 min) that goes four by three.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Double
Bet Horses
4, 6, 7, 11 with 3, 4, 5
Race
Race 9
Race Description
Yellow Ribbon Hcp (G2)
Expert
Selections

3-Liguria

4-Public Assembly

5-Watchtower

1-Hang the Moon

Analysis

This Grade 2 turf route is problematic, because there is no speed. #3 Liguria drops from a third-place finish in a Grade 1, but she is a late-runner in a race likely to unfold at a soft pace. Top choice, yes. Trustworthy, perhaps not. #4 Public Assembly drops from a fifth-place finish in the same Grade 1. Both runners, Liguria and Public Assembly, won graded stakes early this year and are proper choices. But they need pace to run at, and they might not get it.

#1 Hang the Moon won a pair of Grade 2’s last year, but she has not started since December. #5 Watchtower is fresh, training well, and expected to fire first start back. This race  is wide open, and Watchtower at 12-1 merits attention. While the female turf division takes turns beating each other, Watchtower is a “new shooter” making her first start since January. A graded winner vs. 3-year-olds, she has upside returning as a mature 4-year-old. Watchtower has trained well and is worth backing at the right price. Betting strategy is a win bet on Watchtower, and $12 play in the exacta that keys Watchtower with Liguria and Public Assembly.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
wIN (8-1 minimum)
Bet Horses
5
Bet Type
Exacta key box (three times)
Bet Horses
5 with 3, 4
Race
Race 10
Race Description
MSW
Expert
Selections

7-Christel Clean

2-Timekeeper's Charm

3-Ridegold

5-Tiger Fire

Analysis

The card ends with well-intended first-time starter #7 Christel Clean the 3-1 program favorite. It’s not a strong field, the type in which first-time starters often hold the edge. #2 Timekeeper’s Charm has speed, while route-to-sprint-turf-to-dirt-blinkers-on #3 Ridegold might like this shorter distance and is listed 9-2. Betting strategy is a simple $10 play in the exacta ($1 min) that insists "longshot" Ridegold finish one two.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Exacta key box
Bet Horses
3 with 2, 5, 7
Bet Type
Exacta key box
Bet Horses
3 with 2, 7
Select Track