Daily Racing Form Southern California handicapper Brad Free provides his selections, analysis and suggested wagers for Saturday, Aug. 30 at Del Mar.
Brad Free’s top picks for each race (posted Thursday)
Brad Free’s analysis of top races (posted Friday)
Betting strategies (tickets you can play) based on the analysis (posted Friday)
Tickets for multi-leg tickets (posted Friday)
Picks, analysis, and suggested wagers are made prior to raceday scratches.
Exclusive insights by Brad Free | Full-Card Selections | Exclusive Analysis | Wager Suggestions You Can Play
Exclusive insights by Brad Free | Full-Card Selections | Exclusive Analysis | Wager Suggestions You Can Play
2-Tempus Volat
8-Decapo
7-Never Ambling
4-Doc Bovie
#2 Tempus Volat looks fairly obvious in this MSW turf mile based on his runner-up comeback in which he ran his final quarter in :23.59 and finished more than three lengths clear of third. Despite his attributes, Tempus Volat is curiously listed at 5-1. That would be an overlay.
#8 Decapo, second choice in the program, made the Daily Racing Form “horses to watch” list following his troubled debut. He broke slowly, got shuffled into the turn, then finished well. Sharp try, but it was five months ago. Program favorite #7 Never Ambling makes his U.S. debut after finishing second in a 13-horse field in his career debut in Ireland. Decapo and Never Ambling are contenders, but the generous price on Tempus Volat is too good to pass up. Betting strategy is a win bet on Tempus Volat, and $16 play in the double ($2 minimum).
2-Wild Recruit
10-Jaguar Jon
1-Distant Fleet
3-Coach Cronin
#2 Wild Recruit is worth backing at 6-1 program odds vs. class-drop favorite #10 Jaguar Jon. The maiden-20 win at Del Mar last summer by Wild Recruit was fast, he was only prepping last month in his comeback. He worked well since and should move up second start back.
Jaguar Jon returns to dirt after being foiled on turf. The third-place finish by Jaguar Jon two starts back ranks among the fastest by any in this field, he figures to press the pace from the outside post while dropping in class. The knocks are he already is racing below the level at which he was claimed two back, and his 2-1 program price is short. Betting strategy is a win bet on Wild Recruit, and an exacta saver under the favorite. If the daily double that began in the first race is still live, it is personal preference whether to press by betting Wild Recruit to win.
6-Vodka Vodka
8-Pokerknightatvees
9-Supernal
10-Annan
#6 Vodka Vodka dominated maidens last out at this turf-mile trip and now meets a tired cast of Cal-bred allowance types. Many have been stuck at this class level for a while. There is no reason up-and-comer Vodka Vodka cannot win right back, alrhough a pair of “new shooters” pose longshot threats. They are the revised second and third preferences.
#8 Pokerknightatvees and #9 Supernal both stretch out from sprints. Both are trained by Doug O’Neill, therefore a pace duel is unlikely. If they stay out of each other’s way, Pokerknightatvees and Supernal both can outrun their odds with front-running/pace-pressing trips. Both are listed 10-1. Betting strategy is a $12 play in the exacta ($1 min) that mostly keys Vodka Vodka with the stretch-outs.
4-Misstrial
3-Molly E
6-Heaven's Bolt
2-Santa Monica Beach
Maiden 2yo fillies race six furlongs, #4 Misstrial should win if she runs like she trains. Her debut was an odds-on disaster. She bobbled and went to her nose at the start, uncorked a middle move on the turn, and then flattened out. She has continued to work well since. The interesting firster in the field is #3 Molly E. She was quickest from the gate in a four-horse team drill Aug. 16, and followed with a solid five-eighths. Betting strategy is to pass for single-race wagers, and for the sake of action go for the middle pick four. This is the first leg of a $16 caveman play in the pick four (50-cent min).
4-Formidable Man
7-King of Gosford
8-Full Serrano
2-Cabo Spirit
It will be a surprise if the G2 Del Mar Mile is won by a horse other than #4 Formidable Man or #7 King of Gosford. The status of #8 Full Serrano is uncertain. He may or may not run, and he is less effective on turf. With only eight entered, and not all confirmed, this is a pass race except for the pick four that began earlier. No bets.
1-Tenma
6-Om N Joy
2-Howin
4-Lolo Le Plume
#1 Tenma is the class of the field and most likely winner of the G3 Torrey Pines for 3yo dirt fillies. But she has never been particularly fast on figures, and she faces a worthy rival who has improved each start.
#6 Om N Joy crushed a Cal-bred sprint stakes last out, worked well since, and handles two turns. Om N Joy is taking a big step up in class, but two years ago Glass Ceiling won the Torrey Pines after winning the same Cal-bred stakes won this year by Om N Joy. #2 Howin is sharp but second choice in the program, while a bomb is #5 So There She Was, listed 20-1.
So There She Was supplemented to this stakes after her Aug. 24 gate work that was more impressive than it looks on paper according to socalworkoutreport.com. Second start back from a layoff, listed at giant odds, So There She Was could slip into the trifecta. Betting strategy is a win bet on second preference Om N Joy and a $10 play in the trifecta (50-cent min) that insists on a win by Om N Joy and in-the-money finish by So There She Was.
4-Vibez
5-Sneaker
8-Khinjani
9-Granny Budgie
#4 Vibez should win after a runner-up finish last out in a similar N2X turf route. In three turf starts at Del Mar, she has two wins and a second. #5 Sneaker is speed, back with allowance rivals after four solid tries in restricted stakes including a win two back and runner-up finish less than two weeks ago. Vibez at 7-2 would offer value, but she is likely to go shorter. Pass race. No bets.
4-Danzing Daisy
5-Miss Kona
8-Shady Stripes
6-Godbless Her
#4 Danzing Daisy and program favorite #5 Miss Kona both made the DRF “horses to watch” list after their respective runner-up debuts. Both ran very well, and should improve. Danzing Daisy raced on turf, midpack, finished well and galloped out with run. Sired by Danzing Candy, she might prefer dirt. Miss Kona produced no speed first out, but also finished well and galloped out well. Both fillies benefit by the stretch-out to six furlongs.
Betting strategy is a win bet on top choice Danzing Daisy and $20 play in the late pick four (50-cent min). Regarding the cost of the pick four ticket that uses “all” in the next race, only 12 of the 15 entrants can start.
10-Motorious
11-Queen Maxima
3-Coppola
1-Beyond Brilliant
#10 Motorious should win the G3 Green Flash for the third straight year, and become the first 7yo to win the turf sprint. This field is loaded with speed, which benefits stretch-runner Motorious. Runner-up last year in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, Motorious will take some beating in the Green Flash. He is listed 5-2 favorite.
But this field includes several with price potential. #1 Beyond Brilliant, 20-1, goes route to sprint after setting a kamikaze pace and tiring at a mile. #2 No Nay Hudson, 12-1, finished a close third in this race a year ago and enters fresh. #3 Coppola, 10-1, is speed from the East. #7 Boss Sully is sharp, and the filly #11 Queen Maxima is fast enough to contend.
Betting strategy is a $20 play in the trifecta (50-cent min) that insists Motorious finish first or second, and remaining slots filled by the aforementioned longshots.
4-Nysos
6-Journalism
5-Indispensable
1-Fierceness
#4 Nysos is the top choice in the Pacific Classic, but it’s a virtual coin flip between him, and Grade 1 winners #6 Journalism and #1 Fierceness. All three are qualified, while #5 Indispensable is a potential knockout at 15-1. Nysos is the one to beat. He has more speed than his main rival, worked an outstanding five-eighths on Aug. 21, and should run the best race of his career in his first start beyond a mile and a sixteenth.
Journalism gets a six-pound break; 3yos are 6-for-19 in the Pacific Classic. Indispensable could outrun his program odds in his third start back after a fast N1X win last out. A horse-for-course moving up the ladder off a highly rated allowance win, he has upside and should relish a mile and a quarter. Indispensable is the key. Betting strategy is an $18 play in the trifecta that insists Indispensable hit the board. Also, a saver bet on Indispensable.
4-Stay Hot
8-Final Boss
11-Gold Phoenix
7-Truly Quality
The best bet is in the final race on the card. The G2 Del Mar Handicap, a turf marathon, came up light on speed. #8 Final Boss could be loose, while #4 Stay Hot tracks from second. With a pair of nine-furlong comeback races under his belt, Stay Hot figures to run the best race of his career. He is listed at a generous 5-1.
Lone speed must be respected, and Final Boss could get brave. But the gamble is Stay Hot will wear him down. Betting strategy is a win bet on Stay Hot, and exacta box with Stay Hot and Final Boss.