Bob Baffert is 8-for-10 this summer with 2-year-old favorites, which is relevant because his first-time starter #3 Provenance is favored in this dirt mile. Winning a route first out is not easy, but Baffert won with three of his last four debut runners (all ages) in routes. The other finished second.

Bet against Baffert 2-year-olds at your own risk. Provenance has worked well; he went slightly better than stablemate #2 Plutarch in a team work Aug. 16. Provenance and Plutarch both are by Into Mischief, and produced by top-class mares. Provenance is the first runner from two-time champion Monomoy Girl; Plutarch was produced by six-time Grade 1 winner Stellar Wind.

#4 Intrepido finished fourth in the fastest 2yo sprint of the season, he galloped out well and he is bred to run long. #1 Charlie’s Curlin, third in his sprint debut, is by Curlin and should like two turns. Intrepido and Charlie’s Curlin are back-ups. Betting strategy is a two-ticket $18 play in the pick five (50-cent minimum). Fair warning: the pick five “singles” are a pair of longshots in races 4 and 5.

This $25k claiming N2L turf route has only limited appeal. #7 Let Seamus Go drops from starter allowance as the top-choice tepid favorite. His up-front style should play well in a race without that much pace. #1 Spearfish, runner-up last out, will rally late. #4 Mischiefs Causeway drops to claiming after a sixth-place comeback. #2 One Mor Story has speed on dirt. Although he is not really bred for turf, he and Let Seamus Go may be the only true speed.

Betting strategy will forsake single-race action. Instead, it’s a two-ticket $18 play in the pick three (50-cent min) that presses a 5-1 longshot in race 4.

Similar to the second race, this claiming dirt mile has minimal appeal. #6 Ready to Pounce won for $16k and moves up to $20k. The race he won produced at least two next-out winners. #1 Contrary Chieftain missed by less than a length for a $12.5k tag one week ago. He wheels right back as a pace factor. Longshot stretch-out #7 Left Hand Man won a fast sprint last out and is moved up to third preference. From a single-race perspective, this is a pass race. No bets.

Finally, a middle-odds runners on which to wager. #2 Diamond Bar Gal, listed 5-1, can upset vulnerable favorite #5 Itzel in this $25k claiming filly-mare turf sprint. ’GAL ran well all five starts over the Del Mar turf, she has been freshened three months, and has run well fresh. There is pace to flatter her closing rally.

Itzel is favored while dropping in class from N1X. Yet while front-runners are still winning turf sprints, the speed-friendly bias has tempered somewhat. Speed does not win as often as early in the meet, when Itzel squandered her front-running opportunity. She seems to be headed the wrong way, although she is second preference.

Betting strategy this race is simple. It appears Diamond Bar Gal is ready to fire. She is worth a win wager at the right price. A cold double to a 12-1 shot in the next race also is recommended.

A messy Cal-bred maiden-50 offers a chance at a price. #6 Tee N Off, surprisingly listed 12-1, ran well last out vs. similar. He closed to fourth while racing five and one-half furlongs. Now he stretches out to six, and gets a rider switch to Edwin Maldonado. With a more aggressive ride by his new pilot, Tee N Off can post an off-the-pace surprise.

#10 Crossrighthands is a better maiden than his tenth-place debut suggests, and maidens trained by Peter Miller often improve second out. #3 Make It a Large had a weird trip in his comeback. He was hard-ridden early, curiously wrangled back, then got rank and surrendered. He is quick enough to contest the pace with a new rider. Betting strategy keys mostly around the 12-1 top choice Tee N Off. It’s a win and place bet, and $10 play in the exacta that boxes the top three and presses with Tee N Off.

Another live longshot emerges in this turf mile for Cal-bred maidens. #6 Bonneville Jim, listed 8-1, can upset favorite #1 Big Bill. Even though Bonneville Jim finished more than four lengths behind his rival last time, that race was only a schooling run for a horse stretching out from sprints. ’Jim was anchored, trailed the field, then finished well in a race dominated by the pacesetter. He has more speed than he was allowed to show, and with a more forward position can score an upset.

No knocks on 2-1 program favorite Big Bill, except for price. He ran well finishing second in the same race, and he has more speed. But due to the discrepancy in odds (8-1 vs. 2-1), the play is Bonneville Jim. Betting strategy is a win bet on Bonneville Jim, and an exacta box with favorite Big Bill.

#1 Mr. Disrespectful should win this Cal-bred N1X dirt mile at a short price. He drops from a pair of Cal-bred stakes, he has speed to establish position from the rail, and his figures lay over the field. These are not secrets. Mr. Disrespectful is listed 2-1. He acould go lower.

An upset candidate is #4 Speed Grazy, who returns from a four-month layoff to a Cal-bred allowance level at which he has won twice. He entered with the “no-claim waiver,” which typically signals optimism. Speed Grazy is listed 6-1, which might be enough to fiddle around with just for the sake of action. But the truth is, Mr. Disrespectful looks tough to beat at low odds. No bets.

#1 Yellow Card figures to win this N2X turf sprint after a promising runner-up comeback that he missed by only a neck. Michael McCarthy-trained runners can be trusted to hold form, or improve, and Yellow Card can wear them down from slightly off the pace. The speed bias that tainted turf sprints early this summer has dissipated. Off-pace runners can win turf sprints. Yellow Card offers value at 7-2 in the program.

#9 For All Mankind is pressing speed from the outside, with figures that rank among the highest in the field. #7 Jerry’s Spirit might be the speed of the speed. He is a threat to wire the field, although only one of the last five turf sprints (through Thursday) was won by the pacesetter. Betting strategy is a win bet on Yellow Card and $42 play in the late pick three ($3 min) that singles Yellow Card and uses “all” in the race-9 Pat O’Brien (nine are entered, two re-entered an allowance race Sunday and expected to scratch. That leaves seven in the Pat O’Brien).

Grade 1 winners #6 Stronghold and #2 Speed Boat Beach top this seven-furlong Grade 2. It’s a close call between the two comebackers. Stronghold’s work pattern began three months ago; he is ready to fire. The last time he ran seven furlongs, in the Grade 1 Malibu, he finished second to subsequent Met Mile winner Raging Torrent.

Speed Boat Beach bled last out, which explains his last-place finish in a stakes race in Kentucky. He only has six published works in a pattern that began in July, but Baffert rarely sends out a short horse. Speed Boat Beach has a shot to wire the field if he clears stablemate Maymun and pace rival Man O Rose.

#7 Express Train, also a Grade 1 winner, is an upset candidate shortening to a sprint after a better-than-looked comeback in a G2 route. He got keen, moved too soon, and went flat. Now he is dead fit shortening to seven furlongs. Express Train could slip through the cracks, listed 5-1. Betting strategy is a $30 play in the late double ($5 min) that uses the three G1 winners above and two front-runners/pace-pressers in the finale.

This turf route for Cal-bred fillies and mares does not have much pace. That benefits #1 Guiltyofhavingfun and #10 Lavender Love. The front-runners/pressers should control the tempo and perhaps turn the race into a parade. Betting strategy is a win bet on Guiltyofhavingfun and an exacta box with her and program favorite Lavender Love.