Daily Racing Form Southern California handicapper Brad Free provides his selections, analysis and suggested wagers for Saturday, Sept. 7 at Del Mar.
Brad Free’s top 4 picks for each race (posted by Thursday evening)
Brad Free’s analysis of top races (posted by Friday evening)
Betting strategies (tickets you can play) based on the analysis (Friday evening)
Tickets for multi-leg tickets (Friday evening)
Picks, analysis, and suggested wagers may be updated after scratches Saturday.
Exclusive insights by Brad Free | Full-Card Selections | Exclusive Analysis | Wager Suggestions You Can Play
Exclusive insights by Brad Free | Full-Card Selections | Exclusive Analysis | Wager Suggestions You Can Play
8-Steak Fries
4-Marc the Money Man
7-Prince of Del Mar
10-War Is Hell
#8 Steak Fries ran okay in his dirt debut and is sure to improve based on fast subsequent workouts and blinkers on. Sired by Sir Prancealot, the dirt-to-turf switch is just fine. The only knock is price; Steak Fries is the 5-2 program favorite.
First-time starters #7 Prince of Del Mar and #4 Marc the Money Man have trained well; the Daily Racing Form “Del Mar Workout Report” by Toby Turrell suggests Marc the Money Man worked better. Since his program odds are higher, Marc the Money Man moves up to second preference.
Betting strategy is a $40 play in the early pick five (two tickets, $32 and $8; 50-cent minimum) and a $12 play in the double ($2 min). The only horses included in the opener are Steak Fries and Marc the Money Man.
(Saturday update: race-3 scratch of #8 Coulair cuts pick-five cost in half. Now two tickets, $16 and $4. Tickets below have been revised.)
5-Uncle Reg
1-Trust Daddy
4-Hula Candy (SCRATCHED)
7-Touchdown Brown
Program favorite #5 Uncle Reg is the proper choice on the class drop/surface switch, but he is listed at only 9-5. Meanwhile, second preference #1 Trust Daddy has the look of a spoiler and is the longshot key listed at 12-1 in the program.
Trust Daddy was only prepping last out on turf; he drops from N1X to N3L claiming and fits off his dirt form this spring in Kentucky. His last two dirt sprints in May and June were better efforts than his figures suggest. He is fast enough to win at this N3L claiming level.
#7 Touchdown Brown has worked well and returns with the optimistic “no-claim” waiver. #6 Kahuna Magic popped at 16-1 in a N2L claiming race that gives him a look moving up one level to N3L claiming. Betting strategy focuses mostly on Trust Daddy. It’s a win bet, and $18 play in the exacta ($1 min) that includes a smaller ticket keying Kahuna Magic at 15-1.
3-Iron Man Cal
8-Coulair (SCRATCHED)
4-King's Road
1-Zabo
This turf mile for maiden 2yos is a bit perplexing. #3 Iron Man Cal finished a respectable fourth in his sprint debut; he has a two-turn pedigree. He is by Collected, produced by a Kitten’s Joy dam. He exits a race that produced at least two next-out winners. Iron Man Cal’s stablemate #8 Coulair (SCRATCHED) is a European import actually nominated to the G3 Del Mar Juvenile Turf on Sunday. The stakes nomination speaks to how well regarded he is.
Betting strategy is a $10 play in the exacta, mainly for the sake of action. It insists the race be won by Iron Man Cal or Coulair. Not sold on program favorite #4 King’s Road, who is making his debut in a turf route. Same with his stablemate #1 Zabo. The exacta will include the firsters in the two-hole, along with longshots #2 Video Review and #5 Stingray Shuffle.
(Saturday update: Scratch of #8 Coulair revises "action-bet" exacta play, which is now $8. Two tickets at $4 each.)
4-Vodka With a Twist
6-Tenma
2-Nooni
1-Proud Starlet
Odds-on program favorite #2 Nooni is not a cinch in the G1 Del Mar Debutante. In fact, the front-runner could be vulnerable due to another speedster drawn to her inside and another to her outside. Nooni might win anyway, but at 4-5 on the morning line, she is worth going against.
#4 Vodka With a Twist and #6 Tenma are legitimate upset candidates at 7-2 and 4-1, respectively. Vodka With a Twist finished a better-than-looked second behind Nooni in the G3 Sorrento. She was curiously rated, uncorked a wide move on the turn, and flattened out in a race that was run over a track biased to inside speed. Vodka With a Twist worked well since, and figures to use her speed in the Debutante.
Tenma, stablemate of Nooni, is the late threat. She was not expected to win a short sprint first out, but she got there at five and one-half half furlongs. Now she stretches to seven furlongs in a race likely to unfold at fast pace. Vodka With a Twist and Tenma are the keys to this race. #1 Proud Starlet is quick; four of the five races this summer at seven furlongs were won by the pacesetter. Betting strategy is a $12 play in the exacta ($1 min) and $16 play in the pick three (50-cent min). The ticket needs to beat the odds-on favorite to make it worthwhile.
2-Thought Process
7-Supa Speed
5-Casalu
4-Fondest Dreams
Based on her dominating turf-mile maiden win, #2 Thought Process holds the edge in this $100k turf-mile stakes for 2yo fillies. While she is a reasonable favorite, this is her third start of the summer meet and she faces a worth adversary who has aimed to this race since her impressive debut victory last month in a turf sprint. She is #7 Supa Speed, a Justify filly produced by an American Pharoah dam. Supa Speed was not “supposed to” win first out at five furlongs, but she got it done anyway while looking for more ground. She gets it in this turf mile.
#5 Casalu goes dirt to turf, sprint to route, graded stakes to ungraded after finishing third behind Debutante entrants Nooni and Vodka With a Twist in a G3. #4 Fondest Dreams was purchased from her winning debut in Ireland to specifically target this stakes race.
Betting strategy is a win bet on second preference Supa Speed, $12 play in the exacta ($1 min) that insists the race be won by Thought Process or Supa Speed, and a $14 play in the double ($2 min).
4-Smash It
6-Yaqin
9-Arrakis
7-Tapit Dynasty
#4 Smash It should win this sprint for 2yo maidens at odds lower than the listed 5-2. All three runner-up finishes were strong; his last was his best yet. Smash It is quick, consistent and a standout favorite. The firster #6 Yaqin has worked well for Bob Baffert, whose 2yo firsters this summer are 6-for-12. Yaqin will have to be something special to defeat Smash It.
Betting strategy keys Smash It, the most probable winner on the card. It's a win bet at the right price, and anchor leg in the pick three and doubles that began in races 4 and 5.
(Saturday update: With a pick six carryover of more than $76k at stake on races 6-11, a caveman-style $128 play in the pick six play is added below.)
9-On the Whim
8-Smart Code
5-News At Ten
1-Lottery Pick
This N1X turf route includes a host of contenders. #9 On the Whim is two-for-two on Del Mar turf including a sharp Cal-bred stakes win last out. ’Whim has tactical speed and could win right back. Not sure if his 6-1 morning line will hold up.
#8 Smart Code finish second last out, his first start in nearly a year. He held off the runner-up favorite the entire race, but got swallowed late. Smart Code’s solid workout pattern through the month of August suggests improvement second start back. #5 News At Ten stretches out from a promising third-place turf-sprint comeback, but his 2-1 program price as the favorite seems low. #1 Lottery Pick ran well in his fifth-place comeback and is another who may improve second start back, This race is tough, particularly since the morning line may not hold. Pass. No plays.
10-Wishtheyallcouldbe
8-No Cap
11-Safa
5-Baby Kristen
#10 Wishtheyallcouldbe won this Cal-bred allowance/optional claiming sprint last out by nearly five lengths, and runs back first off the claim for the same optional $20k tag. Wishtheyallcouldbe is likely to start lower than her 7-2 program price.
#8 No Cap is the knockout, listed 12-1. She had a tough trip last out in the same race as the top choice, and would have finished much closer. No Cap dueled early, steadied and was shuffled back on the turn, then re-rallied for third. She could have finished second with a clean trip. Now she moves from the rail to an outside post (8 of 12) and should be involved in the pace scenario.
Late-runner #11 Safa drops from a pair of stakes and will be rolling from behind; #5 Baby Kristin is a 10-time winner who adds more speed. As for program favorite #1 Neezer Dalton, she is buried on the rail after winning a claiming race for 3yo fillies by rallying wide. Circumstances are against Neezer Dalton this time. Betting strategy focuses mainly on the second preference No Cap due to the odds discrepancy. It’s a win bet and $14 play in the exacta ($1 min).
6-Didia
1-Anisette
2-Hang the Moon
7-Fuente Ovejuna
#6 Didia and #1 Anisette are the class of this G2 turf route. Didia defeated Anisette last year and exits three Grade 1 races including a win two starts back. Didia is a worthy favorite. But locally based Anisette is 3-for-3 at Del Mar, and enters off three successive graded stakes. The 4-5 favorite and 7-5 second choice stand out.
But a longshot merits a chance to outrun her odds. #2 Hang the Moon improved this year for new trainer Phil D’Amato. She won a N2X, then finished second behind next-out million-dollar stakes winner Ag Bullet. Hang the Moon probably is not good enough to win this Grade 2, but her 20-1 morning line commands attention. Hang the Moon is moved to third preference. Betting strategy is a $10 play in the exacta ($1 min) that insists Hang the Moon outfinish one of favorites.
5-Red Flag
8-Pilot Commander
4-Central Dispatch
3-Schwarzmeier
Last-out winner #5 Red Flag is likely to start favored rather than program choice #8 Pilot Commander, who has trained well for his comeback. But a pair of longshots trained by John Sadler merit attention.
#4 Central Dispatch has worked very fast for his first start of the year; #3 Schwarzmeier improved last out, winning a fast maiden race while adding blinkers. The Sadler duo is listed 10-1 and 8-1, respectively. Schwarzmeier is moved up to fourth preference. Betting strategy is an $18 play in the exacta ($1 min) that needs the Sadler longshots to outrun their odds.
11-Helga Brandt
4-Wimberly
8-Mizzyaan
5-Interplay
A turf-mile scramble for maiden fillies and mares ends the card. #11 Helga Brandt moved too soon in her U.S. debut; she finished second after rallying to the lead at the furlong pole. #4 Wimberly stretches out and is quick enough to set the pace. Sired by Curlin and produced by a Grade 1-Grade 2 route winner, two turns should be fine. Come catch her. #8 Mizzyaan makes her second U.S. start following a prep. Her winter credentials in Dubai include a runner-up finish in the G3 UAE Oaks. #5 Interplay should improve off a creditable debut third.
Betting strategy is only for fun. It's a $12 play in the exacta ($1 min) that boxes the top four choices.