Daily Racing Form Southern California handicapper Brad Free provides his selections, analysis and suggested wagers for Saturday, Aug. 31 at Del Mar.

Date
Title
Schedule
Description

Brad Free’s top 4 picks for each race (posted by Thursday evening)

Brad Free’s analysis of top races (posted by Friday evening)

Betting strategies (tickets you can play) based on the analysis (Friday evening)

Tickets for multi-leg tickets (Friday evening)

Picks, analysis, and suggested wagers may be updated after scratches Saturday.

Selection Title
Selections
Analysis Title
Analysis
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Races
Race
Race 1
Race Description
MSW
Expert
Selections

6-Margarita Girl

2-Non Compliant

5-Magale

4-Usha

Analysis

There is only one horse to bet in this maiden sprint for 2-year-old fillies. Highly regarded first-time starter #6 Margarita Girl has been working super and is believed to be among trainer Mark Glatt’s top prospects. Purchased for $575k early this year, Margarita Girl posted back-to-back gate works in :59.60; juvenile debut progeny by sire Twirling Candy have won 18 percent first time out. Margarita Girl is a potential stakes filly facing maidens. Take the short price, or pass the race entirely. She is listed 5-2 second choice, but could go favored.

 

Her rivals include #2 Non Compliant, who has worked well but is by Tiz the Law, whose juvenile debut progeny have won just 8 percent. #5 Magale is firster by hot first-crop sire Vekoma, whose progeny have won 29 percent (12 for 41) first out. #4 Usha is all speed, but she stopped to a walk both starts. For wagering purposes, this is a one-filly race. Betting strategy focuses entirely on Margarita Girl. She is a win bet at the right price, and opening-leg single in a $10 play in the pick three (50-cent minimum) and $30 play in a pick five (50-cent min). Fair warning: the pick five also keys a longshot second preference in race 5.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Win (8-5 minimum)
Bet Horses
6
Bet Type
Pick three
Bet Horses
6 with 2, 6, 7, 8 with 2, 4, 6, 10, 11
Bet Type
Pick four
Bet Horses
6 with 2, 6, 7, 8 with 2, 4, 6, 10, 11 with 3, 7 with 2
Bet Type
Pick four
Bet Horses
6 with 2, 6, 7, 8 with 2, 4, 6, 10, 11 with 7 with 7
Race
Race 2
Race Description
16k claiming N2L
Expert
Selections

8-Magic Account

7-Pat's Paddock Pick

2-Jonas' Dream

6-Mr. Big Heart

Analysis

Tough to get excited about this bottom-level claiming sprint for non-winners of two lifetime. It’s the lowest-class race on the Pacific Classic card. Last-out maiden-claiming winner #8 Magic Account returns from a three-month layoff with sharp works; this class level is frequently won by last-out maiden-claiming winners. #7 Pat’s Paddock Pick ran a winning race at this level last time while returning to his favorite track. His three starts at Del Mar produced a win and two seconds. #2 Jonas’ Dream wired maiden-20s at seven furlongs, while #6 Mr. Big Heart drops to claiming for the first time.

 

This race offers no apparent edge. No plays.

Plays Title
Plays
Race
Race 3
Race Description
MSW
Expert
Selections

11-Spycatcher

6-Joyrider

2-Broheim (SCRATCHED)

12-Nation

Analysis

Does it make sense to back a 5-year-old maiden making his first start in a year? Maybe if he is the “class” of the maiden turf mile. #11 Spycatcher is no ordinary maiden. He is G1- and G2-placed, returning as a first-time gelding for a trainer that can get comebackers ready to fire. But the knocks on Spycatcher are distance and price. One mile might be shorter than preferred, and value is minimal. Spycatcher is the 5-2 program favorite returning from a long layoff.

 

#6 Joyrider is rounding up to a peak performance in his third start. His debut was for education. Second time out, he rallied from last at the furlong pole to finish fourth by less than a length. His maiden victory will happen soon. #2 Broheim (SCRATCHED) is improving, with more tactical speed than the top pair. The top three could cover the race, but #4 Gladford (SCRATCHED) had a tough trip last out, and figures off his good effort two starts back. He is listed at 15-1. #10 Malibu Rocks is a comebacker with speed, first time turf.

 

This race is a bit of a scramble, with most likely winner Spycatcher offering minimal value. Betting strategy is a win-place wager on longshot Gladford, and a $10 play in the pick three (50-cent min) that spreads the first leg.

 

(Saturday update: Gladford is scratched, Broheim also. Pick three tickets below are revised.)

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Win
Bet Horses
4 (SCRATCHED)
Bet Type
Place
Bet Horses
4 (SCRATCHED)
Bet Type
Pick three
Bet Horses
6, 10 11 with 3, 7 with 2, 7
Race
Race 4
Race Description
Torrey Pines (G3)
Expert
Selections

3-Hope Road

7-Nothing Like You

6-Grand Slam Smile

1-Simply Enchanting (SCRATCHED)

Analysis

#3 Hope Road seems tough to oppose. She stretches out as controlling speed over a dirt track that continues to favor inside speed. But it goes against an age-old warning about low-odds runners trying something new. Hope Road has never run long. She is likely to set the pace in this Grade 3 dirt mile for 3-year-old fillies that was won by favorites 10 times in the last 15 years. She should win as the odds-on choice.

 

However, when Bob Baffert enters multiple runners, lesser entrants always merit a look. That is the case with Hope Road’s stablemate. #7 Nothing Like You has an attribute that Hope Road lacks. That is, experience around two turns. Nothing Like You is an enigmatic two-time G2 route winner who does always run two alike. But when she fires, she is good enough for a race of this caliber.

 

A case might be made for the consistent Cal-bred #6 Grand Slam Smile, first or second in all eight career starts. But the Torrey Pines goes through Baffert. Betting strategy is mainly for the sake of action, using only the two Baffert runners on top. It’s a $10 play in the exacta ($1 min) and a $10 play in the double ($2 min).

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Exacta box (two times)
Bet Horses
3, 7
Bet Type
Exacta
Bet Horses
3, 7 with 3, 4, 6, 7
Bet Type
Double
Bet Horses
3, 7 with 2
Bet Type
Double
Bet Horses
7 with 2, 7
Bet Type
Double
Bet Horses
3 with 2
Race
Race 5
Race Description
Del Mar Hcp (G2)
Expert
Selections

7-Gold Phoenix

2-Dicey Mo Chara

5-Rockemperor

4-There Goes Harvard (SCRATCHED)

Analysis

No horse has won Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap three straight years. But anyone who watches a replay of the last start by #7 Gold Phoenix would be hard-pressed to suggest he has lost a step at age 6. Gold Phoenix, who won this race the past two years, finished seventh last out in a G2 at a mile and one-eighth. His finish position does not tell the story.

 

Gold Phoenix was blocked for the final quarter-mile, with nowhere to run. By the time he got clear, the race was over. He galloped out alongside the winner in a sneaky-good performance. Gold Phoenix benefits by the stretch-out to a mile and three-eighths. He is the horse to beat.

 

However, second preference #2 Dicey Mo Chara is the horse to bet. He ran just as well as Gold Phoenix last out. Dicey Mo Chara raced wide, and wider yet (four-wide) on the far turn. Despite significant ground loss, he rallied to second in a better-than-looked effort. A beneficial jockey switch to Hector Berrios increases the chances of a ground-saving trip. Dicey Mo Chara is in peak form, and listed at a temping 8-1. A win bet is called for.

 

#5 Rockemperor is tempting in his first start since a runner-up finish in the G3 San Juan Capistrano two months ago. Two of the last four winners of this stakes race were exiting the San Juan. Gold Phoenix and Rockemperor are trained by Phil D’Amato, who won this race eight times in the past 10 years. D’Amato also entered #1 Balnikhov. Betting strategy will focus mostly on Gold Phoenix and Dicey Mo Chara, with Rockemperor partly included. It’s a $12 play in the exacta ($1 min) and a win bet on Dicey Mo Chara.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Win (5-1 minimum)
Bet Horses
2
Bet Type
Exacta box (two times)
Bet Horses
2, 7
Bet Type
Exacta key box (two times)
Bet Horses
2 with 5, 7
Race
Race 6
Race Description
MSW Cal
Expert
Selections

5-I'm a Bad Boy

1-Sir Tom (SCRATCHED)

6-Gozer

11-Speedy Wilson

Analysis

#5 I’m a Bad Boy is obvious in this maiden sprint for Cal-bred 2yos, based on in-the-money finishes his first three starts including a third-place finish last out in a stakes race. But he’s far too "obvious," and listed at a no-value 6-5.

 

A second-time starter with a look is #6 Gozer, whose trainer Peter Miller wins often with second-start maidens – 25 percent and a flat-bet profit the past five years. Gozer did not have a good trip first out, while #11 Speedy Wilson made the Daily Racing Form “horses to watch” list after his promising third-place debut. Betting strategy is a simple $12 play in the exacta ($1 min). It's a three-horse box, times two.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Exacta box (two times)
Bet Horses
5, 6, 11
Race
Race 7
Race Description
OC 20k/N1X Cal
Expert
Selections

5-Dont Fight the Fed

9-Pure Madness

11-Stylishlyacclaimed

2-McGregor Lake

Analysis

Cal-breds run long on turf in this allowance, and #5 Don’t Fight the Fed is obvious off runner-up finishes his last two starts at the level. Last out, he finished four lengths clear of third despite losing a shoe; his pressing style should lead to a good trip even with jockey Mario Gutierrez.

 

The lightly raced #9 Pure Madness stretches out from two solid sprints – a debut win on turf, and stakes runner-up on dirt. Equally important is a medication change. Pure Madness adds Lasix, which prevents bleeding. Pure Madness benefits from the medication. Question is, can he run long? His dam won routing; she has produced two route winners. A mile and a sixteenth is probably okay.

 

#11 Stylishlyacclaimed scored a sharp comeback win over maidens at a mile on turf, but runner-up Glorious Life returned to bomb at even-money. Maybe the win by Stylishlyacclaimed was not as good as it looks. #2 McGregor Lake wheels back six days after a better-than-looked eighth in a turf sprint. If that start is viewed more as a “workout” than a race, you’d have to give McGregor Lake a chance to upset. He is listed 20-1, and is the bomb on which to bet. Betting strategy is a win-place bet on McGregor Lake, and a $10 play in the exacta ($1 min) that keys McGregor Lake. If he runs out, turn the page.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Win
Bet Horses
2
Bet Type
Place
Bet Horses
2
Bet Type
Exacta key box
Bet Horses
2 with 4, 5, 6, 9, 11
Race
Race 8
Race Description
OC 40k/N1X
Expert
Selections

9-Fast Draw Munnings

5-Dual Threat

8-Better Than Gold

6-Ultra Power

Analysis

A scrambled dirt route, this N1X/optional claiming is a minefield. #9 Fast Draw Munnings won a similar race here one year ago returning from a layoff; his up-front style matches the speed-friendly track profile. He has not started in a year, but runs well fresh and is listed at surprisingly high 8-1.

 

#5 Dual Threat looms a longshot threat. He was overmatched last out in a G3 dirt marathon, but his highly rated starter allowance win two starts ago at Santa Anita ranks among the fastest by any in this field. Love his price, also. He is listed 10-1.

 

#8 Better Than Gold rallied against a pro-speed bias to finish second in a promising comeback behind Pacific Classic entrant Full Serrano. ’Gold obviously likes the DMR main track (win, second from 2 starts) and will rally late. #1 Bright Leaf won a highly rated claiming route last time with a figure high enough to win an entry-level allowance. #7 Tesoro, an eight-time winner based recently in Northern California, also figures as a contender. The truth is, this race is a scramble. But high odds on the one-two selections make this an easy wagering decision.

 

Betting strategy a win bet on Fast Draw Munnings and Dual Threat if the price is right. Also, this is the opening leg of a $24 play in the pick four (50-cent min) that singles a “longshot” in the Pacific Classic.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Win (4-1 minimum)
Bet Horses
5, 9
Bet Type
Pick four
Bet Horses
5, 9 with 7, 9, 10, 12 with 4 with 3,9
Bet Type
Pick four
Bet Horses
5, 9 with 7, 9, 10, 12 with 4 with 1, 3, 5, 9
Race
Race 9
Race Description
Green Flash Hcp (G3)
Expert
Selections

10-Motorious

12-Turn On The Jets

9-Connie Swingle (SCRATCHED)

7-Unconquerable Keen

Analysis

Speed, speed, speed. This G3 turf sprint is loaded with heat, which is ideal for #10 Motorious, a late-runner who won this stake last summer and was compromised by circumstances finishing off the board both starts this year. He had a bad trip in Kentucky; he bucked a pro-speed turf course at Santa Anita. At Del Mar, Motorious is 2-for-2 with a style that suits the pace scenario.

 

Phil D’Amato entered four in this race, and all are “live.” #12 Turn On The Jets was freshened specifically to aim for this race; he is a three-time turf-sprint winner at DMR. D’Amato also entered #9 Connie Swingle, (SCRATCHED), a mare against the boys making her second start back after a visually impressive stakes win over fillies and mares in her first start in nearly two years.

 

The fourth D’Amato entrant is #7 Unconquerable Keen, another DMR turf specialist who figures to be involved in the pace scenario. One of the four D’Amato starters should win. Otherwise, most tickets are dead. This race is a pass for single-race wagers, the approach is an $18 play in the pick three.

 

(Saturday update: Connie Swingle scratched, as is Noble Reflection. Tickets below have been revised.)

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Pick three
Bet Horses
7, 10, 12 with 4 with 1, 3, 9
Bet Type
Pick three
Bet Horses
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12 with 4 with 3, 9
Race
Race 10
Race Description
Pacific Classic (G1)
Expert
Selections

7-Adare Manor (SCRATCHED)

4-Reincarnate

3-Dr. Venkman

1-Il Miracolo

Analysis

This year’s Pacific Classic lost its favorite; #7 Adare Manor scratched. But her stablemate #4 Reincarnate, also trained by Bob Baffert, can carry the day.

 

Reincarnate’s last start is forgiven, distant second in a G3 dirt marathon. Since then, he worked fast and is likely to bounce from the gate and establish a forward position if not make the lead outright. That’s the winning profile in Del Mar dirt routes. Reincarnate placed twice in graded stakes at a mile and a quarter and is the right play to wire the field, or win from a pressing position.

 

#3 Dr. Venkman won a modest edition of the G2 San Diego last out; the horse he beat by a length was returning from a one-year layoff with his biggest career win a non-graded stakes at Pleasanton. As the revised program favorite, Dr. Venkman is worth trying to beat. #1 Il Miracolo is fast on numbers, but wheeling back in two weeks after shipping cross-country. He seems up against it. As for the others, pass. Betting strategy is all or nothing. It’s all Reincarnate. It’s a win bet and a $10 play in the double.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Win
Bet Horses
4
Bet Type
Double
Bet Horses
4 with 3, 9
Bet Type
Double
Bet Horses
4 with 1, 3, 9
Race
Race 11
Race Description
Del Mar Mile (G2)
Expert
Selections

3-Du Jour

9-First Peace

1-Astronomer

6-Irideo

Analysis

#3 Du Jour rallying from behind or #9 First Peace setting the pace? They are logical choices in this G2 turf mile. The slight edge goes to Du Jour, who won this race a year ago and shortens to his preferred distance after finishing sixth at a mile and one-eighth.

 

But the tactical edge goes to First Peace, who could be loose on the lead in a race otherwise void of speed. He looked good winning the restricted Wickerr Stakes last time out. It looks like a two-horse race between Du Jour and First Peace, but rounding-into-form longshot #1 Astronomer is listed too high on the line at 20-1. Throw him in also. Betting strategy is a $14 play in the exacta.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Exacta box
Bet Horses
1, 3, 9
Bet Type
Exacta
Bet Horses
3, 9 with 1, 3, 5, 6, 9
Select Track