Daily Racing Form Southern California handicapper Brad Free provides his selections, analysis and suggested wagers for Saturday, Aug. 24 at Del Mar.

Date
Title
Schedule
Description

Brad Free’s top 4 picks for each race (posted by Thursday evening)

Brad Free’s analysis of top races (posted by Friday evening)

Betting strategies (tickets you can play) based on the analysis (Friday evening)

Tickets for multi-leg tickets (Friday evening)

Selection Title
Selections
Analysis Title
Analysis
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Races
Race
Race 1
Race Description
MSW
Expert
Selections

1-Emerald Bay

3-Dr Ruben M

5-Game Warrior

4-Authentic Spirit

Analysis

The only reason to wager against #1 Emerald Bay is price. He is listed 2-5. The stretch-out 2yo maiden ran well first out in a sprint; he is the speed of the field with a rail draw and should be long gone at a two-turn distance he is bred for. Sired by Nyquist, he was produced by a G1 route winner. Emerald Bay is a favorite that appears tough to beat.

His main rival is #3 Dr Ruben M, who ran super in his debut, then misfired second out. But that race was won by subsequent stakes winner Getaway Car; runner-up Smash It returned to finish second while improving his figure 16 points. The point is, ’Ruben chased good rivals and should like two turns. He is by BC Classic winner Vino Rosso.

If any of the others win this maiden dirt mile, it will be a hard-to-predict upset. For now, Emerald Bay stands out. Take him or leave him, pass or play. For the sake of early action, betting strategy is a $16 play in the double ($2 minimum) and a $7.50 play in the pick three (50-cent min). Neither wager includes the favorite in race 2.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Double
Bet Horses
1 with 3, 5
Bet Type
Double
Bet Horses
1 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Bet Type
Double
Bet Horses
3 with 3
Bet Type
Pick 3
Bet Horses
1 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 with 3, 4, 7
Race
Race 2
Race Description
N1X Calbred
Expert
Selections

3-Jessebear

6-Court Snort

5-Sushi Sticks

1-Quantum Innergy

Analysis

This Cal-bred allowance turf route offers value going against odds-on favorite #6 Court Snort. Stakes-placed six days ago, she is a late-runner in a race with no pace. It’s already her third start of the meet, and second start in less than a week. Not the type low-odds favorite one can back with confidence.

#3 Jessebear can upset. Though not a true front-runner, she has some speed and switches to front-end rider Edwin Maldonado. Assuming she makes the lead, or presses slow fractions, she could post an up-front surprise. #5 Sushi Sticks makes her first start in more than five months and is proven fresh. She won her career debut here last summer in a turf mile, and could be nearer to the lead than usual.

If “best horse” Court Snort wins at odds-on, what did you miss? Very little. This is an appropriate spot to beat the chalk, win or lose. Betting strategy is a $10 play in the exacta ($1 min), insisting the race be won by Jessebear or Sushi Sticks. Due to price discrepancy, the wager also includes a "saver" exacta box that combines 8-1 Sushi Sticks with vulnerable favorite Court Snort.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Exacta
Bet Horses
3, 5 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Bet Type
Exacta box
Bet Horses
3, 6
Race
Race 3
Race Description
40k claiming
Expert
Selections

3-Tahoe Sunrise

4-Cowboy Mike

7-Ready to Pounce

8-Redline

Analysis

This $40k claiming sprint includes one-two preferences #3 Tahoe Sunrise and #4 Cowboy Mike, droppers trained by Bob Baffert. But the interesting entrant is Phil D’Amato first-off-the-claim #7 Ready to Pounce. He is listed at a surprising 15-1.

Tahoe Sunrise is a proven sprinter who is 2-for-3 over the Del Mar track and runs well fresh. Cowboy Mike is a four-time winner with higher figures, but all four wins were two turns. It’s splitting hairs. Either stablemate could win. As for longshot Ready to Pounce, he makes his California debut for D’Amato, who won with his last three f.o.c. runners. Based previously in the Midwest, ’Pounce has worked very well and will rally late. Ready to Pounce is the key in a $10 play in exacta ($1 min) and a straight win bet.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Exacta key box
Bet Horses
7 with 3, 4
Bet Type
Exacta key box
Bet Horses
7 with 1, 3, 4
Bet Type
Win (6-1 minimum)
Bet Horses
7
Race
Race 4
Race Description
MSW
Expert
Selections

6-She'z the Law

5-Rehearsal

7-Golden Skyline

2-Spanish Cara

Analysis

Older maiden fillies and mares race a mile on turf, and front-runner #6 She’z the Law could shake loose in a small field light on pace. But she is 5-2 second choice, which is no bargain. #5 Rehearsal, the program favorite, finished only a quarter-length behind the top choice last time while making her first U.S. start. She did not have “trouble,” but ran well and should improve second time out. Not sold on her quality, but this merely a maiden race.

The potential upsetter is #7 Golden Skyline, a 15-1 comebacker whose career-best race was her only “firm-turf” route. #2 Spanish Cara has a chance in her second U.S. start. Betting strategy is keyed to longshot Golden Skyline. It's a $12 play in the exacta ($1 min) and straight win bet on Golden Skyline.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Exacta key box (two times)
Bet Horses
7 with 2, 5, 6
Bet Type
Win (8-1 minimum)
Bet Horses
7
Race
Race 5
Race Description
20k claiming N3L
Expert
Selections

2-Slam Diego

8-Love Our Family

3-Danzing Cat

6-Asian Matriarch 

Analysis

This N3L claiming route is a mess. #2 Slam Diego stretches out after a better-than-looked runner-up sprint comeback. The track favored inside speed, ’Diego rallied wide and finished nearly two lengths clear of third. She can handle two turns, but her advantage, if any, is minimal.

#8 Love Our Family moves up after she trounced easier. She has speed to tuck in from the outside post, while sprinter #3 Danzing Cat is the likely pacesetter stretching out. Speed has been deadly this summer at two turns. Cannot fault #6 Asian Matriarch, who won a claiming route for 3yos last out while earning the highest last-out figure in this field. Except for a small "action bet" on the likely pacesetter, this race is a pass.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Win (small action bet)
Bet Horses
3
Race
Race 6
Race Description
50k claiming
Expert
Selections

2-Mission Beach

7-Island Cruiser

3-Invincible

1-Last Call London

Analysis

The meet’s leading trainer John Sadler holds the aces in this claiming turf sprint for 3yos. #2 Mission Beach was claimed from a strong runner-up finish on dirt, he shortens from seven furlongs to five. There is no reason he won’t like turf. He worked well since the claim, and figures for a cozy trip just off the pace. Sadler also entered dropper #9 Island Cruiser, who cuts back to his preferred one-turn trip. He won his last two turf sprints, has speed for a forwardly placed trip, and probably will get the jump on his stablemate. It’s the first time Island Cruiser has raced for a tag.

As often the case, wagering value is on a horse who is not the most likely winner. He is third preference #3 Invincible, making his second start following a layoff while dropping from an allowance vs. older into a claiming sprint for 3yos. He could be the speed of the speed, although he would be the first gate-to-wire winner this summer of a turf sprint with the rails at 12 feet. Nonetheless, he commands respect on the drop.

Betting strategy is a $12 play in the exacta ($1 min), win bet on Invincible, and a $12 play in the late pick five (50-cent min) that singles favorites in races 8 and 10, and leaves out odds-on The Chosen Vron in race 9 only due to his short price.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Exacta box (two times)
Bet Horses
2, 3, 9
Bet Type
Win (6-1 minimum)
Bet Horses
3
Bet Type
Pick five
Bet Horses
2, 3, 9 with 4, 5, 8, 9 with 5 with 3, 4, with 7
Race
Race 7
Race Description
MCl 50k Calbred
Expert
Selections

8-Uptown Preacher

5-Perkins

9-Winter Snow

4-Bajan Bashert

Analysis

The 4yo first-timer starter #8 Uptown Preacher is a new face in a weak race. It’s a Cal-bred maiden-50, and Uptown Preacher has worked well enough for trainer Carla Gaines, who won with 3 of her last 8 firsters. The dam of ’Preacher has dropped two debut winners.

#5 Perkins is speed, first-time maiden-claiming, but dubious at six furlongs. She could wire the field, or she could back up again like she did her first four starts at shorter distances against better company. #9 Winter Snow a 4yo firster with works that suggest she is well-meant, and #3 Bajan Bashert will rally late in her second start back from a layoff. She finished in the money 7 of 9. Not much quality to this race, and no apparent advantage. No plays.

Plays Title
Plays
Race
Race 8
Race Description
N1X
Expert
Selections

5-Just Nails

1-Pushiness

6-Party On Girl

9-Paleo's Princess

Analysis

#5 Just Nails, runner-up her last four turf sprints, should win this race with a better trip than last out. She was shuffled into the turn, had to wait behind runners, found a seam late and finished well. She’s a late-runner at the mercy of trips and pace, but in top form and benefitting from a pace scenario that suggests this rails-at-12 turf sprint will be won from behind.

#1 Pushiness is speed, but she won’t get the same bias she exploited winning a dirt sprint stakes last out, especially with fellow speedster #3 Avoir pressing her from the outside.#6 Party On Girl will be rolling late in her California debut in a race that sets up for her. Betting strategy is an action bet on Just Nails, along with a narrowly constructed $8 play in the double and a similarly narrow $4 play in the pick 3.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Win (small action bet)
Bet Horses
5
Bet Type
Double (two times)
Bet Horses
5 with 3, 4
Bet Type
PIck three (four times)
Bet Horses
5, with 3, 4, with 7
Race
Race 9
Race Description
Pat O'Brien Stakes (G2)
Expert
Selections

6-The Chosen Vron

4-Raging Torrent

7-Senor Buscador

3-Happy Jack

Analysis

#6 The Chosen Vron is a beast. He’s won six in a row including the Grade 1 Bing Crosby last out, his pressing style leads to a good trip, and he continues to train super. But since 2000, six of the eight Bing Crosby winners who ran back in this stakes race regressed on figures. The Bing Crosby and Pat O’Brien is a difficult double to sweep.

#7 Senor Buscador is a stone bet-against. He has no speed, and will race over a track that has not been kind to late-runners. He has not started since March, this race is only a comeback prep, and he loses top jockey Junior Alvarado. Make no mistake, Senor Buscador is a top horse who "could" win. But this is not the right spot to back him with confidence.

Two upset candidates trained by Doug O’Neill who are worth backing are #4 Raging Torrent, a 3yo who might be the speed of the field. He moves up in class off a pair of impressive Kentucky wins at this 7f distance. His figures are close to par for this level; 3yos are 2-for-8 in this race since 2000. Raging Torrent could wire the field, while stablemate #3 Happy Jack figures off his smashing G2 win two starts back at this seven-furlong trip.

Happy Jack misfired in the Bing Crosby, without a visible alibi, but there was plenty going on. The summer meet had just begun, Happy Jack had not settled in, and he simply ran flat. But he trained well since, figures to be forwardly placed, and his 105 Beyer two back matches the career-high of The Chosen Vron.

Favorites won this stakes race 6 of the 9 years since Del Mar returned to dirt, and maybe it is folly to go against The Chosen Vron. But both O’Neills have credentials to buck the trend. They are the keys to this race. And if The Chosen Vron wins as the odds-on favorite, a tip of the cap for the top sprinter in the country. Betting strategy is a $16 play in the exacta ($1 min) and $8 play in the double ($2 min). Both wagers key the O'Neill pair.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Exacta (two times)
Bet Horses
3, 4, with 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Bet Type
Double (two times)
Bet Horses
3, 4, with 7
Race
Race 10
Race Description
MSW Calbred
Expert
Selections

7-Glorious Life

2-Ghostly Act

8-Silver N Black

3-Highplansdrift

 

Analysis

#7 Glorious Life ranks as one of the most probable winners on the card based on his runner-up comeback in a similar Cal-bred turf route. The lightly race 4yo led to deep stretch, and got worn down. Good comeback, and now he meets a field relatively void of true speed.

#2 Ghostly Act is a 16-start maiden with 10 in-the-money finishes including his last two starts which he lost by a head and a neck; #8 Silver N Black adds blinkers and goes turf to dirt off a promising runner-up comeback. #3 Highplainsdrifter looms the upsetter adding blinkers second start back. Hopefully, one of the above multi-race wagers is cashing out to Glorious Life. If not, it’s just an action bet at 2-1 or higher.

Plays Title
Plays
Add Bet Play
Bet Type
Win (small action bet)
Bet Horses
7
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