This first of two maiden special weight divisions arguably drew the toughest maiden field of the entire meet, and might not even be any weaker than the Grade 1 Hopeful on Sunday. However, it is likely to lose a major player, as Mystrix was shrewdly entered back in the Hopeful and is reported to run there instead. I had liked him in this spot, so will adjust my approach with him out.

U. S. S. VALOR (#4) is clearly the horse to beat, especially after the withdrawal of his main rival. This horse got quite an education on debut. He was pushed into the gap after the start, and had to veer out just to get back on course coming out of the chute. From there he raced in traffic and head to steady mildly coming to the quarter pole before angling into the clear. He finished well behind two very talented fellow first time starters, as that trio was well clear of the rest. Any progression second time out makes him very tough to beat. I prefer him to BELZONI (#9), who comes out of a weaker race. Though he has been working well since then unveiling.

The firsters may be in tough here facing an experienced runner as good as U. S. S. Valor, but a couple are worth a look. SPENCER'S ANGEL (#10) shows an eye-catching 6-furlong drill for his debut down at Belmont, and that work notably matches up with older stakes winner Pandagate. This horse trained well earlier in the season before shipping downstate.

Though there is one firster in particular that I want to watch closely. LIVID (#3) has a pretty intriguing pedigree. He's by new sire Idol, who won the G1 Santa Anita Handicap over 10 furlongs, but he has ton of speed on his dam's side, being a half-brother to multiple stakes winning sprinter Doncho. Watching his workouts, he appears to have a massive stride, and looks like a horse that wants to run longer. I do like the way he's finished his works, and would expect him to come running late at a square price. He's my top pick at the expected price.

This race is expected to scratch down to four horses with High Official running in the Hopeful instead.

Pletcher still has the two main contenders in LIAM'S LAW (#2) and BOLD LEADERSHIP (#4). One of those will probably win and it's splitting hairs between them. This isn't really a race to bet individually, though I do slightly prefer the maiden Bold Leadership. I just thought he had a little more upside in his second start.

The two favorites look pretty strong in this turf allowance. I've been really impressed with the constant progression from HIGHLANDS WAY (#4) since he's been gelded. He won that maiden claiming race as much the best horse, and his turn of foot has gotten stronger with each start since then. He couldn't quite make it three in a row when stepped up to this level last time, but he was trying so hard through the final quarter despite shifting about and not getting into the clear until the final furlong. The winner of that race, Risk Tolerance, returned to just miss by less than a length in the Bernard Baruch with a 96 Beyer. This spot isn't nearly as deep as that prior allowance, and I expect Highlands Way to be tough to beat.

FAVORABLE SCENARIO (#7) is obviously the main threat to my top pick, but I wonder if this 6-year-old is still quite as sharp now as he was when he first returned from a layoff last summer. He hasn't progressed much since then, and I thought he had every chance and just hung in the late stages last time.

SHIRL'S SOUL TOWN (#6) is the intriguing new face as he stretches out for the first time. He has some pedigree to handle longer distances, but he needs to settle down after he got too rambunctious pre-race last time.  

I had trouble establishing who was going to be the favorite in this state-bred allowance. Flavien Prat takes over on B THEDONALD (#7), which may swing some support in his direction. He was disappointing as the odds-on favorite last time at this level, but now he returns as a new gelding. His prior form had been strong, and he should get a solid pace setup here.

PARTY IN THE ARMY (#5) is another who was the beaten favorite at this level last time out, though I thought he ran pretty well, contesting an honest pace along the inside before fading. I expect him to run better here especially now that he's finally putting races back to back without a layoff. He just faces plenty of other speed in here, and he hasn't really shown that he has the ability to pass horses. 

THREE B'S (#4) seems like the viable closer to take as he gets back on the right surface following a failed turf experiment. I do wish this race was a little longer since he seems to be best at around a mile these days, but he has won at the distance in the past. He also sports a strong series of workouts for this return to the level at which he last won.

The ML favorite NAUGHTY NANCY (#10) presents a conundrum. She's going to take money purely because of her ownerships (Dave Portnoy's Go Go Greys Stable) but she actually appears to be working like a first time starter with real ability. She actually held her own – more than held her own, actually – with graded stakes turf marathoner Minaret Station in a July 25 drill. She does look like one that may want farther than this, but the outside post should suit her and I won't be surprised when he performs well. She's just a little tough to bet.

SECRET WISH (#8) is another firster who will take money, but she's another with a pedigree to go longer than this. She trains that way, too, so I'm inclined to watch one.

I wanted to focus on experienced runners. AERIAL AFFAIR (#6) makes sense, but she felt cranked up for her best effort last time and she still was no match for Spinaway favorite Summer Starlet. I wonder if stretching out to 7 furlongs will suit her.

CHRISTOPHER VEDDER (#1) figures to run better after finishing behind that foe on debut. She was very wide that day but did finish well belatedly. I'm expecting her to appreciate the added distance and improve with the switch to Manny Franco.

The runner that I want the most is RUM TWIST (#5), who hasn't gotten ideal trips in either prior start. She was off slowly before finishing well on debut. Then last time she was rated from the inside and seemingly had run passing the quarter pole. However, she got stymied in traffic in upper stretch, losing momentum while altering course. She now stretches out to a distance she should appreciate, and Paco Lopez should have her a bit more engaged early. She's one of the horses on this card that I like quite a bit today.

REASONED ANALYSIS (#5) is probably the horse to beat after running well in both starts since returning from a lengthy layoff. I really liked him off the layoff when he just missed at 9-1 odds, and he was arguably best when nailed late after dueling on the lead last time. However, he's likely to be favored again and I don't see much value in picking him for a third time a row.

Main rival DOC SULLIVAN (#4) performed very well off a layoff in the John Morrissey last time, seemingly getting back to his best form for Amelia Green. The only negative from the last race was that he lacked any of his previous early speed, and if he's as sluggish in the early going again this time it could be an issue breaking out of the Wilson Chute.

The pace of this race is difficult to read. I'm hoping we see Edgard Zayas give an aggressive ride to KINETIC (#6), who seems to do his best running when he gets forward early. He's coming off a poor effort, but he had no realistic chance in the Monmouth Cup against Knightsbridge last time and was predictably eased. Throwing that out, this race is essentially his first off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci. He has back form that gives him a chance here, and his most recent workout was very encouraging for a barn that usually doesn't have them show much in the mornings.

I didn't find quite as much obvious quality in this second division of today's opener. TRUE ESSENCE (#3) feels like a deserving favorite off his fast-closing runner-up finish on debut at Ellis Park. He's out of millionaire multi-surface specialist Better Lucky and should have no trouble stretching out in distance. I'm not really against him, but I do think he faces an intriguing newcomer.

PHAROCITY (#9) has trained like a good thing for his debut, and Steve Asmussen is certainly capable of winning these races with first time starters. I don't love American Pharoah as a debut sire, but the workouts on this colt suggest he has real ability. The outside draw is perfect for this distance.

The others didn't do much for me. ELECTRO (#6) will take some money given the pedigree and presence of Prat, but I preferred the workouts on others. JACKPOT ROCKET (#8) finished decently on debut and should appreciate some added distance.

Likely favorite RELATIVE PARTY (#5) ran pretty well from a tough draw on debut. He was a little keen when settling early, but eventually got over to the inside, and rode the rail for much of the far turn. He angled out in upper stretch and had his chance, just flattening out slightly late. These Chad Brown runners tend to improve second time out, but I do think he's landing in a potentially tougher spot here. Among those with experience, PASS ON BY (#1) is arguably a little more interesting. This horse showed speed and faded on debut, but that was a dirt race. He's bred to excel on turf, by Not This Time from a female family that has produced a string of quality turf performers.

I also want two first time starters. ARTEMIS TWO (#3) is by mediocre turf sire McKinzie, but comes from a female family that is exclusively turf-oriented. You have to respect anything Brad Cox sends out in these races. He is 7 for 13 (54%, $8.97 ROI) with 2YO first time starters on turf at Saratoga over 5 years, and 5 for 8 ($11.11 ROI) in turf routes within that sample. He already sent out a turf route debut winner at this meet, and that one had also been training at Turfway.

My top pick is CHRISTOPHER WOOL (#8). I know Bill Mott is known for winning on debut, but I like the way this colt is working. The 19-day gap in his drills during August is a minor concern, but he had looked pretty well-tuned prior to that. He has looked best in both of the turf workouts I watched, and he's obviously bred for this being out of Grade 1 turf mare Bleecker Street. He should be a square price given the barn's record, but I get the sense that he's live.

Perhaps this race is as simple as ORTLEY AVENUE (#3) taking a step forward second off the layoff. He ran very well off a 364-day layoff last time, setting honest fractions before getting reeled in by a perfect trip winner. However, while George Weaver has great stats first off a layoff like that, he is just 2 for 27 (7%, $0.63 ROI) second off a 240+ day layoff on turf over 5 years, suggesting that these horses don't always improve with a start under their belts. He figures to be kept honest early by GRUNGE (#2), who draws inside of him with Paco Lopez and adds blinkers.

BRIGHTLINE BULLET (#8) had to weave his way through traffic following a rough start last time, and was finishing best of all at the end. He certainly took to turf, and should have a chance to attain better early position from an outside post this time.

My top pick is GLOBAL ASSET (#7), who is a bit of a wild card as he turns back in distance and returns from a layoff. This gelding was purchased for $170k last November, and Phil Antonacci has had success with his acquisitions of this sort. While he only routed for Brad Cox, he has the quick action and turn of foot of a horse who should handle less ground. Antonacci does a great job readying horses off layoffs, and this one figures to fly under the radar having trained almost exclusively at the farm.

PRESIDE (#5) would be very easy to pick in this spot if both of his standout speed figures hadn't been achieved over wet tracks. I tend to think the switch to fast going won't be an issue for him since he doesn't look like some kind of wet track specialist physically. He's large and heavy, so not the kind of body type you'd associate with loving the slop. Yet it is still a layer of uncertainty on a horse who figures to be the favorite. COURTING (#3) is the other intriguing 3-year-old in this group. He showed potential early on and then never seemed to develop mentally or physically. He's dangerous if he's taken a step forward during the time away.

I'm actually just as interested in his Steve Asmussen stablemate IRON DOME (#7), and that one may be a slightly better price. He didn't get a very good trip when unable to get forward from a wide post going this distance last time. The draw here isn't ideal either, but I do think this horse has further upside. He was returning just 13 days prior to his last start when he ran in that Aug. 1 affair, and now he's had better spacing between his races. He got better through racing last year, and I expect him to step forward here.

The horse I want to bet at what figures to be a bigger price is UNIVERSE (#9). I know he was pretty bad off the layoff last time, but it seemed like he needed that race. He had a light worktab on the way in, and the paddock reports indicated that he probably wasn’t quite fit yet. He's since gotten a few more stiff workouts into him, and that run figures to have taken some of the edge off after he was uncharacteristically aggressive last time. There's enough speed signed on, and now he can take back and make one run while reunited with the jockey who has been aboard for his best efforts.

I really don't feel like I have a particularly clever take on this Spinaway. The two horses that are likely to attract the most support feel like the two most talented runners in the field. I'm not trying to beat SUMMER STARLET (#2), who blitzed a maiden field on debut with an eye-catching move off the far turn. That group she defeated looked pretty strong on the way in, and she made a mockery of them. She'll be a fraction of the price she was last time, but I get the sense that she's the real deal.

LIFE CHANGING (#8) was a slightly tougher call for me, since she had a lot of things go her way on debut. She broke well and just had to lead throughout. There is plenty of other speed in this race, but she did draw best towards the outside.

I won't be surprised when someone else steps forward since that's always possible with the 2-year-olds. I just didn't have a strong sense of who that might be.

I'm pretty chalky to close out this card. Why am I supposed to be against ORI (#3)? She's a standout on form, and didn't even run that badly when she returned from a layoff last time. Now she gets a massive rider upgrade to Flavien Prat, and she's supposed to play out as the controlling speed. Perhaps I'll throw in a few backups for my multi-race sequences if I'm right in the prior legs, but I don't have a clever opinion here.