I had initially been interested in Big Frosty getting on the dirt here, but his connections elected to instead run him in a turf stakes on Friday that didn't go particularly well.

We're now left with a race that looks pretty straightforward. MODEST MACLEAN (#6) was well meant on debut, just unable to hold off his Rice-trained stablemate in the final strides. He still showed ability and runners from this barn tend to be sharper second time out. He's also bred to handle added distance, as a half-brother to dirt route stakes winner Arctic Arrogance. On debut he galloped out like a horse who would relish more ground. I just worry he'll get overbet again. His main pace rival is BUBSTER (#7), who did run well going this distance last time. That just felt like the day to have him at 8-1, and he didn't quite connect. I'm also somewhat concerned that the performance may have been aided by a speed bias, though he has reportedly worked well since.

TERM PREMIUM (#8) interests me a little more after getting compromised by the track profile last time. He adds blinkers and should be staying on late. He was green reacting to kickback on debut, and just needs to put it all together mentally to beat the two favorites. Chad Brown is a remarkable 13 for 34 (38%, $2.91 ROI) adding blinkers in dirt route maiden special weight races over 5 years.

Chad Brown obviously holds a strong hand in this marathon allowance. ASBURY PARK (#4) is the class of the field as a former Grade 2 winner going this distance. He put forth a strange performance off the layoff when ambitiously spotted in the G1 Turf Classic on Derby day, showing uncharacteristic early aggression before steadying and coming to a stop in the lane. He's had time to regroup since then and is probably getting back to what he does best. I prefer him to stablemate ARKHIPOV (#7), who stayed on mildly with a good trip last time. I just thought this was a tougher spot.

The other logical runner proven at this distance is MUTAAWID (#3), but he possesses no early speed and may be compromised in a race lacking pace.

I'm trying to wire the field with ROTHSCHILD (#1). Some of you may recall I had liked this horse two weeks ago when he was a regulatory vet scratch (due to illness) going this distance. That was an N1X allowance race, and now he's racing for a higher level, but I'm not viewing that as a bad sign. He has the back class to compete with these horses based on his third-place finish in the Grade 3 Nashville Derby from two years ago. His 4-year-old campaign obviously didn't go according to plan, but I liked his return from the lengthy layoff last time. He was contesting an honest pace while racing 3-wide with no cover around both turns. He outstayed the other speeds, but got swallowed up by closers in a race that collapsed late. He seems cut out for this marathon trip, and he should control the pace up front as he picks up Luis Saez and gets blinkers.

I am under no illusion that POWERLINE (#1) isn't a very likely winner of this race. If he steps forward off his promising debut, he is probably going to win and stamp himself as a future Derby candidate. However, I'm always looking to poke some holes in a short-priced favorite that nearly everyone plans to single. This colt didn't break that sharply on debut, and then got a little rank behind runners in traffic. Given that experience, I'm sure his connections would have preferred that he drew an outside post for this second start, but instead he's stuck on the rail.

There are two first time starters that I think have a chance for the upset. One of those is ML second choice ART MUSEUM (#8), who has a stellar pedigree, by Into Mischief out of a Grade 2-winning, Grade 1-placed dam. Point of Honor wanted to run all day, but her son Art Museum has more of a sprinter look to him in his workouts and should have some speed. Chad Brown just doesn't have the best statistics with firsters in dirt sprints.

Neither does Bill Mott, but LOUDEN (#2) figures to be a better price. I don't love the stops and starts in this horse's worktab, but I did like his last drill in company with Belzoni, who was narrowly beaten on debut with a 75 Beyer. Louden looked slightly second-best to that stablemate, but he hung in there gamely and galloped out well under little urging. He's another with an excellent pedigree and is bred to win early.

I'm not thrilled with likely favorite AMERICANEXPRESSION (#1), who was a voided claim when she broke her maiden here earlier in the meet. She's now back in a logical spot, but I wonder how much upside there is. I tend to prefer this barn's horses when they're fresh, and now she drew a tough rail post with speed to her outside. The quickest of them all early seems like HEADS IN BEDS (#2), who probably needed her return from a layoff at Aqueduct. That was 6 furlongs, and the shorter trip of this race should suit her better. It also helps that the 5 1/2 furlong races at this rail setting have been playing to speed so far this week.

The horse I want to bet, if she's allowed to run, is PAYNTERPRETTY (#9). I question her participation since she's owned in part by Marshall Gramm's Ten Strike Racing, and I'm sure you know what's going on there unless you've been living under a rock this past week. As for the horse, she seemed to subtly improve on turf, chasing a fast pace before fading against a tougher field at Monmouth. She just didn't look like she wanted any part of routing. She improved turning back on dirt last time, but a turf sprint may be her true calling. She has the tactical speed to stay involved from the start.

This might be one of the most interesting races of the day, as you can make a valid case for almost the entire 10-horse field. I wanted to avoid the short prices like PRIVATE PROPERTY (#1), who was very disappointing off the layoff, and LOVEONTHELEFTBANK (#10), who has already had her chances against maiden claimers.

MADELINE'S AGENDA (#3) gets class relief as she drops in for a tag, and didn't even run that badly when she faded after contesting the pace against tougher last time. She's a player. I also think U VICKY (#6) makes some sense as she drops further after running deceptively well for a $100k tag last time. The pace of that race was on the slow side, and she was making good progress late despite trying to lug in through upper stretch. Jose Ortiz should benefit from the experience aboard her.

Yet I primarily want to focus on two horses in my wagering. The more logical of the pair is DR GLICK (#8), who showed some talent early on before going to the sidelines. It might not seem like she's run well in either start since the long layoff, but she had a bit of trip in the only turf start two back at Tampa. She was getting a pocket trip and then got shuffled back behind a tiring runner on the far turn. I expect better here as she gets back to her preferred surface.

My top pick at a bigger price is RAGING BLOOM (#7), and she's one of the horses I'm most looking forward to betting on this entire card. She showed some promise in her debut when closing mildly into a slow pace behind stakes winner Time to Dream. She then got a very wide trip next time out at Keeneland before going to the sidelines. She returned last month going 1 3/8 miles off the layoff. She probably wasn't fit for that task, but she also did herself no favors by getting involved in an early duel in a race that ultimately collapsed. She's better than she looks and should be a square price.

There are some capable fillies with experience in this 2-year-old maiden fair, and I don't want to underrate them. KEY COLONY BEACH (#4) was very well meant on debut and nearly pulled off the victory. She just had the misfortune of running into the well-bred Effusive. She goes out for a barn that does very well with second time starters, but I do wonder if she was really cranked to win first time out. We could potentially see more improvement from MYSTICIOUS (#8), whose trainer Rudy Brisset is 21 for 56 (38%, $2.99 ROI) with 2YO maiden second time starters on dirt over the last 5 years. She has to get faster to get on terms with Key Colony Beach, but the upside is there. LUCERRA (#3) exits the same race where she was pinned on the rail and flattened out, but she's another who can improve second time out.

I just get the sense that there may be a couple of pretty talented first time starters in this field. The more obvious one is FOREVER CARINA (#5), a full-sister to Kentucky Oaks winner Always a Runner. She has been working very forwardly for her unveiling, doing everything with ease in the mornings. I generally don't like to take short prices on dirt firsters for Chad, but this one seems viable.

I put VERY CLEVER (#11) on top because Brad Cox has stronger statistics overall debuting horses on dirt at this meet. She's bred to go longer being by Curlin, but she is a half-sister to 7-furlong Grade 1 winner Matareya. Watching several of her workouts from Kentucky, she's always finishing well, looking like the type that will relish this 6 1/2 furlongs on debut. She obviously will lose Irad with him not riding this card, but I'm not too worried about the trip given that she drew outside.

You can get into trouble dismissing these Wesley Ward shippers coming off layoffs from Keeneland, but I really wonder if NAKATOMI (#6) is still the same horse now as a 7-year-old. I know he earned a Grade 2 victory just three starts back at Keeneland, but he wasn't beating the strongest field. He has done well in Saratoga before and is obviously a contender. I just preferred some others with recency.

The horse to beat was Sacrosanct, but Linda Rice scratched him and will only run her other horse ACOUSTIC AVE (#4). He is far from impossible and has done well coming back on short rest in the past. I would use him underneath. Though the horse I feel that I need to upgrade after scratches is OVER AND OLLIE (#5), who now looks like he could be the controlling speed. I don't fully trust this inconsistent runner, but he does seem to do his best work when he can race on Lasix and is dangerous when he can attain forward position.

My top pick is CAT ON TIME (#2). This horse has really turned a corner lately for David Jacobson. He got very good at the end of 2025, and carried that momentum forward into his seasonal debut this year. He closed into a slow pace to win at Horseshoe Indy two back, and then held his own against some tough sprinters in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt last time. He was never even clear rallying behind foes and still ran strongly through the wire. I'm concerned that some pace has scratched out of here, but I expect Luis Saez to keep him within range early.

Several runners in this field exit the July 25 race at this level. A very fast opening quarter caused the race to collapse late, so horses like TUTHILLTOWN (#11) and FAIRY GODMOTHER (#6) were very much with the flow closing from well back. Between the two, I would prefer Tuthilltown, who at least has a little more tactical speed. But I want a horse who can be more forward. I suppose one of those could be ARINATA (#3), but she needs to get faster and I figured she would get overbet with Jose Ortiz aboard.

DANCINGWITHDESTINY (#8) seems like the right one to take from that July 25 affair. She was contesting the pace while racing 3-wide and finished well ahead of those early pace rivals, only fading in the final sixteenth of a mile. She has given up stretch leads in the past, but I think she has a better chance to hold it together this time. There isn't nearly as much speed signed on in this race, especially now that her main pace rival scratched. I would go as far as to say that she is the most likely winner of this race and fair odds are as low as 3-1.

The only other horse I really want in here is MARIA CALLAS (#9). Her two sprint efforts are both quite strong. She finished behind Dancingwithdestiny last time, but that was her return from a layoff, and she had gotten a little rank in the early stages of that race. She cuts back further to 5 1/2 furlongs, but her aggressive demeanor suggests that the distance should suit her.

I suppose STIMULATE (#5) is the horse to beat here, but he seems bound to get overbet. It's not like his maiden-winning speed figure makes him any kind of standout here, and he's going to get based on perceived upside. Some of that expectation that he'll improve is justified since there have always been high hopes for this horse. You just have to decide what fair odds will be, and I'm pretty sure he won't drift high enough for me to bet him on the win end. He's also not the best gate horse, and breaking slowly out of the Wilson Chute can be a death sentence.

Gate issues are a theme for a few contenders in this race. That leads me to COCKTAILSNKRINGLE (#3). I normally wouldn't like a horse with such a light résumé in a tough allowance race, since he is moving up in class significantly. Yet he is a pretty good gate horse and has dangerous tactical speed in a race that features a murky pace scenario. Those two factors combined typically make horses doubly tough out of the Wilson Chute. Steve Schauer's runners are obviously performing at a high level right now. He is 9 for his last 21 on the circuit and has won with all 3 starters this week. You just can't throw his runners out, and I can actually make a case for this one regardless of the hot streak.

The other horse I want to upgrade after scratches is PLAYA DEL MAR (#9). Going from post 9 to post 7 out of the Wilson Chute is pretty significant, and the better draw should allow him to attain good forward position in this race. He has prior speed figures that make him the horse to beat, and he just never seemed comfortable on a wide chase off the layoff last time. 

SEGESTA (#6) is obviously going to be a handful in this Ballston Spa, but I've never been her biggest fan and don't think she's done anything remarkable in those recent starts at the Grade 1 level. She's obviously run well, but she's gotten very good trips and hasn't exactly outperformed expectations.

On her best day, I believe DEEP SATIN (#3) is every bit as talented as Segesta. The problem is that she isn't nearly as consistent as that rival. Deep Satin arguably ran a better race that foe when she just missed in the Grade 1 First Lady last year after a wide trip. Since then she hasn't hit the board in three subsequent starts, but the trips just haven't quite worked out. Then last time she did herself no favors by breaking through the gate prior to the start. She drew well and should fare better here.

My top pick is GRAYOSH (#7). She obviously needs to take another step forward to upset her favored stablemate, but I do think she has subtly improved as a 5-year-old. She never built on those excellent Saratoga performances as a 3-year-old, one of which was a win over division leader She Feels Pretty. Yet now she's getting back to this venue for the first time since then off some progressive form. She ran very well to kick for victory off the layoff and then was compromised by a slow pace in the Eatontown. She got back to the winner's circle last time with another strong finish, and now seems ready for this step up in class. I could see some pace developing here, especially if the newly blinkered Long Ago is sent from the outside.

I'm not trying to beat COUNTING STARS (#6). Her merits are fairly obvious and nothing in her form suggests that stretching out to 1 1/4 miles is supposed to be an issue. If I play this race individually, it will probably be using A. P.'S GIRL (#5) underneath the favorite. This other daughter of Honor A. P. seems cut out for this distance and has run better than it looks in a couple of recent starts, albeit against weaker.

For multi-race purposes, Counting Stars is the only win candidate for me.

This finale seems pretty wide open. I thought that maiden race won by Shelzawa on July 4 was a pretty strong affair, so I'm primarily looking at some of the also-rans from that race. SECRETLY DELIGHTED (#5) is very logical now that she's making her third start off the layoff. She did get to save ground last time, but briefly had to wait for room in upper stretch before finishing best all belatedly. She stretches out here, but isn't supposed to mind that being by Constitution.

The trip horse from that July 4 race is HOME WRECKER (#3), who was rated between horses early getting a bit keen. She seemed full of run coming around the second bend and then briefly got caught in traffic in upper stretch. I'm less convinced that she wants 1 3/16 miles than I am others in this race, but she may be in pretty good form right now.

My top pick is FANGO CREEK (#4), who I view as the most likely winner. She probably needed her debut for a barn that rarely win with firsters in turf routes. She showed progression last time out, but was done no favors when her rider decided to rate her despite the fact that she broke on top. She got a good trip after that, but did have to briefly wait in upper stretch before firing through. She possesses more natural speed than it appears, and I'm expecting her to go forward this time with the rider switch to Luis Saez. She's also bred to get this distance as well as anyone in this field. She will be the key to my wagers.