Blue Grass Stakes

COUNTDOWN REWIND: BLUE GRASS STAKES

By Jeremy Plonk

Date: Saturday, April 13, 2013
Track: Keeneland
Kentucky Derby Points Awarded: 100-40-20-10
Distance: 1 1/8 miles (2 turns) on Polytrack

HANDICAPPERS’ RECAP: After three straight Florida turf preppers had won the Blue Grass from 2010-‘12, horseplayers caught on and made Grade 3 Palm Beach Stakes dominator Rydilluc (Gary Contessa) the tepid 7-2 favorite. The 14-horse Blue Grass didn’t have a major main track Spring prep winner in the lineup, but it did have the runner-ups of the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby, Grade 3 Gotham, Grade 3 Southwest, Grade 3 Sam F. Davis and Grade 3 Spiral. There was significant B-level depth in the field with 10 of 14 entrants having placed in a graded stakes this year. Star juveniles of 2012 like Balance the Books (Chad Brown) and Uncaptured (Mark Casse) were trying to hit the mark for the first time at age 3. Rydilluc appeared on his way to victory before being swept under the tide of closers led by Java’s War (Kenny McPeek), fresh off his second-place finisher to unbeaten Verrazano (Todd Pletcher) in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby.

ON THE CLOCK: The overall splits don’t elicit tremendous vibes. After quarters of 23.81, 24.23, 24.72 and 24.53 the Blue Grass finished up its final furlong in an ordinary 12.98 for a final time of 1:50.27. The time rates third-slowest in the seven-year Polytrack history of the Blue Grass, and a solid 12-plus lengths slower than Dullahan posted a year ago. It’s only the No. 66-fastest of 166 races on the Keeneland Polytrack at this distance all-time. But when you factor that Java’s War rallied from as far back as 14 lengths behind, and closed 5-1/2 lengths over the final furlong, you start doing some interesting subtraction. Trakus caught Java’s War in 24.04 the fourth quarter and 12.15 over the final furlong. That’s coming home in 36.19 over the final three-eighths. So while the final time may not blaze on the finish, certainly the winner impressed late.

THE EYE TEST: Rydilluc carved out his usual, first-over pressing trip even from post 13 and appeared comfortable turning onto the backstretch in chasing stretch-out sprinter Undrafted. But within a few strides of seeing daylight out of the clubhouse turn, Rydilluc took off on Edgar Prado and tackled Undrafted way too early on the backstretch. He appeared to be moving well and poised to draw off, opening up a 3-length lead between calls nearing the quarter-pole. But he faltered in the stretch and the field swallowed him. As brilliant as he finished races on turf, I did not foresee him stopping at the head of the lane with that lead. But as we noted in Countdown prior, his workout video at Keeneland looked similar where he got over the track great and then kind of fell apart visually at the end of his work. He did the same thing in the afternoon. People falsely have said that Java’s War last to first close on the Polytrack was just typical Poly stuff. Happens all the time. Au contraire.  From 166 races on the Keeneland Polytrack at 1 1/8 miles, this was the fourth-deepest closer ever to win after the opening half-mile (9-1/2 lengths behind). The average winner at this distance all-time is 3-1/4 lengths off the lead at that juncture. And, Java’s War made up nearly 5 lengths from the first call until that opening half call to just get within 9-1/2 lengths. Palace Malice had a dream trip compared to his nightmare two weeks’ prior in the Louisiana Derby, but he hung a bit with dead aim on the win much like he did in the Risen Star at 1 1/16 miles. Trakus also indicates Java’s War ran 52 feet farther than runner-up Palace Malice. Third-place finisher Charming Kitten actually covered more ground than Java’s War and ran 64 feet (about 8 lengths) farther than Palace Malice, though was beaten only two necks for all the money. The top seven finished within about 5 lengths, but those horses behind fourth-place Rydilluc never made a real impact.

PROJECTING THE BLUE GRASS STAKES FORWARD: The top three finishers all appear Kentucky Derby bound. Java’s War, Palace Malice and Charming Kitten all come to Louisville as prices, but only the latter is unproven on dirt. Java’s War is a small-bodied horse that trainer Ken McPeek told the Night School audience after the Tampa Bay Derby that he wasn’t built for the rigors of the Derby field. We’ll see if he can get a wide trip and avoid the bruisers like he did in the Blue Grass. Trainer Contessa says it’s back to turf for Rydilluc, who would be a great fit for the new 3-year-old turf stakes at Penn National and then later at Colonial Downs and Arlington. Look for Balance the Books in those same kind of races. Mark Casse will reroute Uncaptured and Dynamic Sky toward Canada’s Queen’s Plate in July.