Before we start, may we wish that the Easter Bunny dump loads of chocolate and hard-boiled eggs on your platter come Sunday.
The main event on closing weekend at Fair Grounds is, of course the Louisiana Derby, race 10 on the card and the last leg of an all-stakes pick four.
RACE 7: INTERNATIONAL STAR was off the board as the odds-on favorite in the Mineshaft last time out but he was against the race flow, which favored those horses close to the pace. Expecting improvement. EAGLE ran a much better race, closing to just miss while also trying to close in a race where speed held the edge, though he has to deal with the wide post.
A's: 1, 10
The Dubai World Cup at Meydan on Saturday obviously is hard to analyze from a Beyer Speed Figure perspective because just half the field has raced in the U.S. I have no way of knowing how Japanese sensation Hokko Tarumae might match up with the Americans, or exactly what his $10.3 million in earnings means. I have to believe that if California Chrome runs to his best Beyers, the 2014 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner is going to be very difficult to beat.
IRISH PRAYER
Trainer: Mike Maker
Last race: March 19, 9th
Finish: 5th by 11
Beyer: 32
First-time starter hit the side of the gate and trailed through the early stages, then rallied past several rivals toward the inside in a $25,000 maiden sprint for New York-breds.
COMMENT: Stonetastic is one of the quickest gals in the game and when things break her way she’s capable of freaky-big efforts. She came into this off an easy win in the Miami Shores here Feb. 14 and again dominated the proceedings. She shot right out to a clear lead, set fast splits while remaining clear and extended her advantage to the wire while never really being threatened. One caveat: the track was surely tilted toward speed this day.
The featured Las Flores Stakes comes early, race 3, and we’ll pass over that and all the early races and look to the back end of a decent Sunday card for action at Santa Anita.. The late pick four spanning races 6-9 starts with a deep, interesting second-level turf-route allowance and includes a potential single in a stakes race, and that’s where the focus lies.
Saturday’s card at Santa Anita isn’t one of the better ones we’ve ever seen, and the featured event, the Grade 1 Santa Margarita, is a race I have zero interest in playing. I’ll play a small pick five ticket on the opening five races of the card.
RACE 1
DRF's newest handicapping feature, Pace Ace, has uncovered hidden longshots and exposed many vulnerable favorites since it launched two weeks ago. It's revolutionary, and it changes the way horseplayers handicap a race. But here's what it is not:
Pace Ace is NOT a tool that measures the speed of fractions. It does NOT judge the pace of a race based on splits. It is largely based on the projected race flow AND the actual race flow how a race figures to set up, and how it actually does set up, from a race flow perspective.
With two stakes, the Razorback Handicap and Rebel, falling in the late pick four Saturday at Oaklawn, that wager looks like one of the more potentially rewarding bets of the day. So, let’s take a look at the sequence and put together a DRF TicketMaker play, with the capitalized horses ranked either as ‘A’ or ‘B’ runners based on their chances of winning.
Race 8, The Razorback