DRAGON BAY
Trainer: Stu Simon
Last race: April 24, 8th
Finish: 2nd by a neck
He mounted a wide bid from fourth over an inside-favoring track to lose a nail-biter in the Wando Stakes to Bear’sway, who saved ground all the way. He can handle turf and the Tapeta and is eligible for a first-level allowance.

April 23

LOUISVILLE, Ky. -  Trainer Chad Brown took center stage here Sunday morning, working his two Kentucky Derby contenders, My Man Sam and Shagaf, over a fast track at Churchill Downs.

The back end of this nine-race Sunday program looks pretty chalky, with one of the uber-trainers (Shug, Todd, Kiaran) most likely to win the race 7 feature and Todd likely to win the finale with KISMET’S HEELS. But I do believe there’s a way to leverage an early sequence into a decent score, so here we go.

The Grade 2 Elkhorn Stakes headlines a solid Saturday afternoon card at Keeneland. Here are a few opinions:

Elkhorn Stakes – Race 9:   DA BIG HOSS (1)  (7-2 morning line, 5-2 value line)

Which Da Big Hoss is going to show up for the Elkhorn?  Will it be the horse that devastated KAIGUN and company in the John B. Connally Turf Cup at Sam Houston? Or, will it be the one that disappointed at short odds at Gulfstream on March 5 and Dec. 26? 

With Da Big Hoss, it all comes down to trip.

With two stakes in the late pick four at Aqueduct on Saturday, the sequence looks like a good one. Here’s a look at the races, followed by a play using TicketMaker.

Race 6

A $14,000, nonwinners-of-three claimer going six furlongs starts the late pick four, and most of these horses have faults to some degree. Let’s go three deep, using, in order of preference, IDEAL QUALITY (9), SURFSPUN (8), and ANDREW’S GOT ZIP (1).

Sorry about last week’s missing column—we were actually at the OBSAPR sale looking at horses and it was a zoo—just didn’t have any time to file a column. We’re back now to report that in the interim 17 BreezeFigs maidens got off the schneid including a three-over-Par Group 1 first-time starter named White as Cotton who swooped from dead last to take a maiden claimer at Tampa Bay to pay $103. Today’s card is a bit light on firsters, but we found one in a funky condition race that might do, see below. Good luck!

Grade 3, $150,000 Lexington Stakes; 1 1/16 miles; Keeneland; April 16, 2016
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: Collected, by City Zip
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Owner: Speedway Stable LLC
Beyer Speed Figure: 90

Grade 1, $1 million Arkansas Derby; 1 1/8 miles; Oaklawn; April 16, 2016
(100 Derby qualifying points for a win, 40 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth)

Winner: Creator, by Tapit
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Owner: WinStar Farm LLC
Beyer Speed Figure: 96

SUGARY, by Indygo Shiner
Trainer: Marty Jones
Last race: April 16, 3rd
Finish: 3rd by 6 1/2
Beyer: 57
This debuting 3-year-old filly broke slowly and finished well from behind a slow pace. Sired by Indygo Shiner and produced by a sibling to Grade 1 winner Tiz Flirtatious, she may want two turns.