1. Creator
2. Mor Spirit
3. Danzing Candy
4. Nyquist

1. Brody’s Cause
2. Exaggerator
3. Nyquist
4. Outwork

1. Shagaf
2. Nyquist
3. Mor Spirit
4. Outwork

This year has been one for fast-paced Derby preps. As one race after another fell apart late on the way to Churchill Downs, more of the tired speeds fell short of the points cutoff. What we are left with is a Derby field that lacks much true early speed. Now, all of a sudden, all those closers who were taking advantage during the prep season might find themselves up against it in the biggest race of their lives.

Even if favorites Rachel’s Valentina and Nyquist both win, which seems unlikely, the Oaks-Derby double almost certainly will pay more than the past two years.

One year ago, fifth choice Lovely Maria and favorite American Pharoah combined for a $1 payoff of $27.30. That was big compared to a year earlier, when favorites Untapable and California Chrome combined for a $1 payoff of $5.70, the lowest in 15 years.

The minimum bet for the Oaks-Derby double is $1; recent pools averaged nearly $2.5 million.

There are four pick fours, not to mention two pick fives, on Friday’s Kentucky Oaks card at Churchill Downs. But the pick four I’m focusing on here is the late all-stakes one that concludes with the Oaks and begins in race 8.

Race 8, Turf Sprint – There’s a big field here, and while I’m going to spread a bit, I won’t spread as much as you might expect. I’m comfortable with three “A,” or main, horses and two backups.

Let’s look at a few contenders for this Derby and see how they stack up in terms of similar Derby runners since 1991. Caveat emptor: These stats are mostly intended to be fun, playful, silly, or just interesting discussion starters, so use them at your own risk when upgrading or downgrading who you’re likely to bet Saturday.

Beyer Speed Figures

Although there are a vast number of considerations in handicapping the Kentucky Derby, one key element is determining which horses are the fastest. So let’s take a look at the probable Derby competitors by their Beyer Speed Figures, and the figure patterns they exhibit coming into the race.

CLASSY CHRIS
Trainer: Lisa Lewis
Last race: April 29, 4th
Finish: 2nd by 1 3/4
Beyer: 62
First-time starter got away toward the back of the field and trailed early as the eventual winner grabbed control of the pace, then put in a nice four-wide run around horses all the way through the turn before carrying on gamely in the stretch; won’t take much improvement off that effort in this division. 

Who wants to go 1 1/4 miles?

Handicappers obsess over that question, sometimes to their detriment, every first Saturday in May.

While pedigree is an important piece of the Derby puzzle, it probably shouldn't come at the expense of the more reliable and basic handicapping tenets of speed, pace, and class.

Gulfstream

Miami Mile Handicap (race 7)