With rain in the forecast for Saturday at Pimlico, there stands a pretty good chance that the main track will end up something south of “fast” for the Preakness, adding yet another wrinkle when trying to handicap the middle leg of the Triple Crown.
The key question is how much an off track might affect the outcome of the race, most notably the chances of the odds-on favorite, Nyquist, in his attempt to remain undefeated and move on to Belmont Park with an opportunity to sweep the Triple Crown.
Not saying that he would have finished second but our sneaky Pick Airlite, who went off at 9-to-1, did stumble when he hit the dirt off the downhill course at Santa Anita last week, but he did complete the trifecta with our other Pick, and favorite, Lauren’s Ladd, which was therefore not a total loss. There were three other BreezeFigs 3-year-old maiden winners at Santa Anita last week, along with six others at Assiniboia, Belterra, Churchill, Gulfstream and Parx.
There obviously are many times to overlook flaws in longshots who are attempting to beat questionable favorites. Such occasions will occur in races Friday and Saturday at Pimlico as well elsewhere around the country. But it’s hard to make a case for such a strategy in the Black-Eyed Susan and Preakness Stakes on Friday and Saturday.
Land Over Sea and Go Maggie Go, coming off excellent races in the Kentucky Oaks two weeks ago, stand out over the their Black-Eyed Susan rivals, and similarly, Nyquist and Exaggerator appear rock-solid as the choices in the Preakness.
First, a brief retirement ceremony for the term “new shooters,” Preakness starters that didn’t race in the Kentucky Derby. “New shooters” has been around decades. It had a good run. Everyone is sick of it. “Horse that didn’t run in the Derby” takes a little longer to type and say, but let’s go with it.
There are several big guaranteed exotic pools at Pimlico over the next couple of days. Let’s take a look at the $100,000-guaranteed pick four covering races 3-6 on Friday.
Race 3
FANTASTIC STYLE (8) towers over the field in terms of Beyer Speed Figures and should appreciate the slight class and distance relief. Like many pick four players, I will single the probable odds-on favorite.
A - 8
Not every Kentucky Derby winner is capable of handling the two-week turnaround to the Preakness, but NYQUIST gives the impression that he will. He has trained with his usual gusto while at Pimlico for much of the past two weeks, acclimating to the racetrack and the surroundings.
He has yet to find a track over which he could not win. Unbeaten in eight starts, he has won at five different racetracks and in three different states.
Considering that every Preakness dating to 1985 (at least), save three (Red Bullet in 2000, Bernardini in 2006, and Rachel Alexandra in 2009), has been won by a horse exiting the Kentucky Derby, the first Saturday in May would seem to be a proper place to go looking for the winner of the second leg of the 2016 Triple Crown.
There are few to choose from, with only three Derby runners electing to wheel back two weeks later in the Preakness.
There is one good reason to bet against NYQUIST – price. The odds are likely to be low for the undefeated Kentucky Derby winner. And yet the Preakness also is likely to produce the same result for Nyquist as his eight previous starts – victory.
