CREATOR was my pick in the Kentucky Derby, and he finished 13th. But I’m going back to him in the Belmont because he never really had a chance at Churchill Downs to show what he can do. Creator appeared to have run late on the far turn, only to be blocked, walloped, taken up, and otherwise completely wiped out at the top of the stretch.

There are two ways to approach this year’s Belmont Stakes from a wagering standpoint – concede the race to odds-on favorite Exaggerator and look for some value underneath in the gimmicks, or take a shot to beat the Preakness winner in search of a big payday. Win or lose, the latter seems like the more sensible approach.

Considering what he was up against in the Preakness (a big class rise, sloppy track, and much faster pace), STRADIVARI acquitted himself quite well to land a piece of that race in just his fourth career start, and did so while backing up the 100 Beyer Speed Figure he earned for a facile win against overmatched horses in his 3-year-old debut. He is exposed now, but the pace scenario for the Belmont Stakes should be much more favorable for him, and he is one of the few true contenders in this year’s field who is eligible to improve again.

Preakness winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up EXAGGERATOR figures to start at low odds in the Belmont Stakes. He also figures to win. Exaggerator emerged as one of the country’s top two 3-year-olds – the other being Derby winner Nyquist, whose absence from the Belmont lowers the price on Exaggerator. Of course, low odds might be the best reason to wager against.

While we await Saturday’s main event at Belmont Park, let’s kick off the weekend with a look at Friday’s late pick four, which covers races 8 through 11.

Race 8: True North Stakes

Holy Boss benefits greatly from the scratch of the speedy Private Zone and also from this cut back to six furlongs, which is a much better distance for him after making his first two starts of the year going seven furlongs. He looks like the main speed from the rail with Private Zone gone and may prove tough to catch.

SQUEEZE
Trainer: Christophe Clement
Last race: June 2, 4th
Finish: 1st by 1
Beyer: 82
Three-year-old filly made it 2 for 2 in her career when overtaking a fast pace while in hand once coming clear and going on to finish on her own power; likely to be tried in a tougher spot next time, but she may be able to handle it.

LEVELER
Trainer: Phil D’Amato
Last race: June 3, 6th
Finish: 2nd by 3 3/4
Beyer: 79
A two-time runner-up, this maiden filly finished clear of third in her second start, earned an improved speed figure, and has a running style that suggests two turns would be okay.

Belmont
Pennine Ridge (race 8)

DADDY’S GREAT BAY

Trainer: Reade Baker

Last race: June 4, 6^th

Finish: 4^th by 1 1/4

Beyer: 66

She lacked room on the turn in the stretch, and then galloped out in front during a frustrating experience in a first-level optional claimer for 3-year-old fillies. She was previously fifth in a much tougher spot at the same level.

MOZAMBIQUE GOLD

Trainer: Lorne Richards

ARCADIA, Calif. – The early races look chalky Sunday at Santa Anita. Hunt stands out in race 1, the Siren Lure Stakes; Arrogate could shake loose in race 2, a maiden special weight route; and habitual runner-up Little Mustard meets woeful maiden-$20Ks in race 3.

But at odds of 9-5, 7-5, and 8-5, the reward does not justify the risk of backing Hunt, Arrogate, and Little Mustard. If all three win, did a bettor miss anything? Nope.