In Todd alone you can trust to start the early pick-four sequence Sunday at Belmont Park by singling his strong-looking entry of 2-year-olds (1, 1A) in the first leg, race 2, or you can double up the ticket by throwing in DIXIE KICKS (3), who ran a big race first out for the underrated Mike Mareina. I’ll go with the latter.
In race 3, I’m taking a major stand against the Dogwood turf-to-dirt turnbacker MONEY CHANGER while spreading with the other contenders.
The late pick four Sunday at Lone Star Park runs on races 7-10, and the sequence is comprised of maiden races – split between dirt and turf offerings. The fields are large as a rule, but the toughest leg to get through appears to be the first one. A group of seven evenly matched runners go in the maiden special weight at a mile. Here’s a look at the sequence that has a 50-cent minimum.
Exaggerator, the Preakness winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up, is clearly the most accomplished runner in the Belmont Stakes field, and for that reason he will be the heavy favorite. He also will be overbet and vulnerable stretching out to 1 1/2 miles, which makes him a horse I cannot select on top.
Exaggerator has run very well in his last three starts against the best of his generation. It is only when you dissect all three races that it becomes apparent he was set up perfectly each time. In the Belmont, this might not be the case.
Our closing line last week said that Horse Greedy “might be worth tossing into a gimmick with Supervisor who, if he is one piece, could turn out to be a nice horse.” Well, Horse Greedy won, Supervisor was last all the way, indicating that he is not all there so we hope a few of you were saved. Eight other BreezeFigs 3-year-old maidens won last week, three at Churchill and one each at Charles Town, Finger Lakes, Gulfstream, Indiana and Parx.
The Belmont Gold Cup/Belmont Stakes double is a tough wager to have much confidence in since we’re dealing with a 16-furlong turf race and a 12-furlong dirt race. Considering that neither of these races will be contested at a distance that is common here in the United States, a great deal of projecting needs to be done when trying to smoke out horses who are best suited to stay these marathon distances. Below I’ve laid out the horses I’m most interested in, along with the odds I believe would represent fair value on each runner.
BELMONT GOLD CUP
Reviewing replays and trips can be a time-consuming, though often rewarding, experience – particularly in cases where the trouble goes unnoted in the charts. In preparation for the Belmont, I went through and examined the last-race trips of all the competitors. They follow below in post position order.
Yours truly has been tasked with writing about Saturday’s all-stakes pick four at Belmont Park, the one that ends with the Belmont Stakes. And that’s great. If I’m still breathing, I will play this sequence. Happily. With gusto.
Although some might not want to play DESTIN in the Belmont Stakes due to his preparation – with the race marking just his second start in 13 weeks – it means little to me. The time off was not the result of some publicized setback. Rather, the extensive spacing was made by his connections to have him fresh for the Triple Crown after the horse produced a career-best effort in winning the Tampa Bay Derby on March 12.
