Aug. 20
Saratoga
Fourstardave (race 9)
BUTTON DOWN
Trainer: Josie Carroll
Last race: Aug. 21, 7th
Finish: 4th by 4 1/4
Beyer: 95
She had a troubled trip for the second straight time in a Grade 2 stakes against the boys in the Sky Classic. The European import should be a factor against her own sex next month in the Grade 2 Canadian, in which she finished a close second last year.
DEL MAR, Calif. – The marquee race of the summer might not be the most attractive race on which to wager. After all, favorites should dominate the $1 million Pacific Classic on Saturday at Del Mar.
California Chrome probably will win at 8-5. He would be the fourth straight winning favorite. Beholder, the 3-1 third choice, could win. She would be the fourth back-to-back Pacific Classic winner. Even front-runner Dortmund, the 5-2 second choice, has a shot to steal it.
Well, we could be morbid and say that we wish the races at Saratoga were cancelled after the first instead of the fifth last Saturday, which would have saved us the embarrassment of watching out Pix do their worst. Even though they finished basically in the order we forecast, the were 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th. However, it was a stellar week otherwise for 2-year-old BreezeFigs maidens, especially at Saratoga where five won, kicking off one exacta, one trifecta and one superfecta along the way.
FARLEY
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Last race: Aug. 10, 3rd
Finish: 2nd by nose
Beyer: 57
A second-start 2-year-old colt, he had to wait for room into the stretch and then finished fast behind a front-running winner. Big try by a Distorted Humor maiden who would have a shot Sept. 3 in the $100,000 Del Mar Juvenile Turf.
FINANCIAL RECOVERY
Trainer: Brian Lynch
Last race: Aug. 13, 8th
Finish: 4th by 1 3/4
Beyer: 56
This first-time starter was bet down to favoritism on yielding turf in the restricted Shady Well Stakes, in which she rallied from sixth to find traffic in deep stretch. The daughter of Street Cry is bred to run long.
DEL MAR, Calif. – The bottom of the barrel is no place to look for overlays in Southern California. The high level of predictability in $20,000 maiden-claiming races produces low win payoffs, and the 2016 Del Mar summer meet is not an exception.
The median payoff in maiden-$20Ks is only $8 despite average field size of 9.1 per race (average field size across all categories is a troubling 8.0). Maiden-$20K favorites this summer are 6 for 14; the highest win payoff is just $13.40.
Let’s look at a few intriguing runners in races 5, 7, and 8. These horses may not ultimately be keys to my plays, but they’re interesting prices that may offer some value – whether in a win bet or an exotic wager.
RACE 5
The two horses I prefer in this race are CHINA GIRL LOVER (1) and LIFE’S JOURNEY (4), but there’s another horse who could make things interesting on the front end. LITTLE SCOTTY (2) may not be as talented as the top runners in this field, but he does possess speed, something few (if any) of the others in this race have.