MASOCHISTIC, by Sought After
Last 3 Beyers: 110-107-50

• The defection of Lord Nelson makes him the favorite and the horse to beat, although he may have to deal early with severe pace pressure from both Drefong and Delta Bluesman.

• He’s a different horse than the one who finished last in the 2015 Sprint at Keeneland, having learned to rate and relax while also maturing physically after being given an extended vacation by trainer Ron Ellis.

Pick-4 on races 4-7 

Trainer Ron Ellis is predicting a giant effort from MASOCHISTIC, the 2-1 morning-line favorite in the BC Sprint (race 6) Saturday at Santa Anita, and with his favorable outside post, his two big preps this year, his steady training pattern, and Mike Smith choosing him over Drefong, I’m very much inclined to believe him.

ARCADIA, Calif. – I subscribe to the Steve Crist philosophy regarding the pick six, which is you either bet a lot or bet small, because if you bet in the middle, over time you’re just going to get swallowed up by bigger pick six players who have the ability to purchase greater coverage.

Among the many questions for handicappers to ponder in analyzing the Breeders’ Cup Classic is the following: Can Frosted be effective at 1 1/4 miles against horses of this caliber? Let’s examine his race record and pedigree in search of an answer.

First, his record. In four starts at 1 1/4 miles, he has yet to run better than third. Granted, some of those losses were fine efforts, such as a fourth in the 2015 Kentucky Derby and a third in the 2015 Travers. Less encouraging were a seventh in the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic and a fifth in the Dubai World Cup.

TimeformUS creates a Pace Projector for most races in North America, including the Breeders’ Cup. Deploying TimeformUS Pace Figures in the service of a battle-hardened, exhaustively tested algorithm, and modified up to post time as scratches warrant, the Pace Projector predicts both the position of each horse at the official first call of the race and the likelihood that the pace will be extreme, be it slow or fast, and thereby favoring one running style over another.

Oct. 29

Belmont

Turnback the Alarm (race 4)

LOST POINT
Trainer: Saul McHugh
Last race: Oct. 28, 6^th
Finish: 2^nd by head
Beyer: 68
She rallied strongly from 10^th to lose a nail-biter to the favorite in a seven-furlong maiden special on the grass first time out. The daughter of Gio Ponti is bred to run on, and shouldn’t mind a surface switch to the Tapeta if there’s not another turf opportunity at the meet.

It's a beautiful fall afternoon in New York and there are two interesting stakes on the closing day-card at Belmont.

I'll take a play at the late pick 4 featuring a wide-open edition of the Chelsey Flower Stakes.

ARCADIA, Calif. – The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines the word “dilemma” as “a situation in which you have to make a difficult choice.” The choices are not that difficult Sunday at Santa Anita.

Cut might win race 1, a one-mile turf race for maidens. However, he has never raced on grass, nor has he run beyond 5 1/2 furlongs. As a 2-1 favorite, the choice is easy. Cut is a pass.

For me, the last pick four of the Keeneland fall meet hinges on a single at a price in the third leg of the sequence.

RACE 7: DOMINANT CLASS drops in class for her second start. NO LACA TALENT debuts for Wesley Ward and meets a seemingly average field. PRETEND goes for a tag for the first time. HIPPOLYTE has some very interesting works for her first start (4).