DRF Sports: 0:01

Welcome to the DRF sports podcast brought to you by DRF. Sports. America's most trusted name in horse racing is now providing sports bettors with exclusive data analytics previews videos and expert picks on all major sports, but smarter and have more fun doing it. It's the DRF sports podcast and now your host, Sheldon Alexander Ready Set that

Sheldon: 0:28

this is DRF sports podcast as we deep dive into the masters, the first be a pro and when the DRF sports Pro, introducing DRF sports all the premium data feature on drf.com/sports for $99 a year which is just 825 a month. You can get industry leading betting trends, angles and analytics with the madness here is the best way for you to make some money and have fun while doing it. That's DRF sports bro. Sign up now at drf.com/sports with the Masters fear masters we will deep dive into golf betting angles and to do so our guy Matt Russell stops by to give us all the different angles he has live betting who to like who to fade all that fun stuff and that starts for y'all right now. Well, it's that time of year we're getting close up shots of flowers and Azaleas are whatever. Jim Nantz is whispering to me he's calling me his friend even though I'm not your friend Jim man's. That just means that it's that time of year where we're at Augusta National Tournament that somehow still called the masters. But anyways, conversation for another day. But let's discuss some golf here. Because it's a big, big, big, big tournament that just got even bigger. Oh, did I get you at that intro is that there's a lot a lot there. But there's a lot going on. As we head into Augusta National Week as your man's Tiger Woods. will he or won't he be competing in sad masters? I mean, I guess we got to start there, right?

Matt: 2:14

Yeah, we do. I mean, listen, I was gonna Homer Simpson back into the hedges while you were going there. Or maybe it was back into the azaleas. Steer clear. Listen, man, I get it. I get it. Tiger Woods, speaking of. Um, all right. Here's situation Tiger Woods again, maybe you're listening to this. And he's already made some sort of announcement. Here's the thing. He doesn't have to make an announcement right? Because and you know, maybe if you're new to sort of how professional golf works and all that sort of thing. There's nobody sitting waiting and seeing if Tiger Woods is going to play that would be playing in this there are no alternates. There are no guy, every golf tournament other than the Masters by and large, with a couple of rare exceptions, has alternates to the field. If somebody withdraws that person is in, they get a chance to change their life. Part of the thing is that the Masters isn't an invitational tournament, all the invites are out there is no invite to maybe get in, right, everybody has known they're going to get in with the exception of JJ spawn, who just won this past week to get a last second, invite the last possible invite that you were ever going to get. And so it doesn't matter. Tiger could literally walk to the First Tee, smell these aliens and be like, Nah, not really feeling like it right? And so here's how I'm gonna break this down. For one. I'm never gonna bet a tiger to win this tournament. Okay, I would be thrilled if he did. There. I'm not gonna say there is no amount of money. But when we're talking about a 50 to one type zone here for Tiger, like, what's the amount of money that would make it sort of augment this? The idea of him winning, right? Like, am I gonna put 100 bucks on him at 50 to one win? 5000 bucks. Yeah, like that would be sick, like at 50 to one for a guy who hasn't played competitively in year and a half and like, almost lost his leg and has had radical reconstructive surgery to that leg. Like that seems a little bit far fetched. Right. Like, I will never remember that money in the same way that I would remember the moment if he somehow won the tournament. Now, point is he's not going to in turn. Yeah. I mean, listen, if he does could be so sweet. But is he going to play? Right? And to me? The answer is yes. And I don't have access right now to a book that gives me a yes. No prop on whether Tiger is going to play. But I would hammer that. Yes. Do we have the obviously, you know, responsible levels here? Anything under like minus 300? Because here's the situation Tiger Woods went to Augusta last week to play. And to me that was the like, Can I walk this course test? Right? Where it's like that's going to be the issue because like if it's Tiger Woods playing golf, guess what Tiger Woods can do. He can play golf, right? He can hit the shots. He's been on the cart playing at home for a year, maybe not necessarily a year but like almost a year. Whatever. Point is Ken he walked a very hilly Augusta National Golf Course. And so he went and he played And then he went home? And shall he did not have to come back. Now again, if none of this had happened under these practice rounds that happened or anything like that, and we were following as PJ, up to up to Georgia, I would say to you like, yes, of course he's going the masters, they have the champions dinner, it's a very sort of like, everybody shows up, even if they're gone. By the time the first tee, you know, first tee ball is hit on Thursday morning. But no, he went, he went in, he took a practice round or two, then he went home. And he's decided to come back on Sunday night instead of Tuesday, or whatever. And he went back so that he could play another round again. So to me, that means the first time around where it was, is my leg going to hold up on this walk? To me that passed that test? And if that passed that test, the only thing that's left is Tiger to be like, Well, can I actually compete? Can I get dialed in here enough? Can I hit the shots, etc, to is my game sharp enough to not embarrass myself. And so he comes out, he plays these practice rounds, and they don't go particularly well, from a strictly ball striking standpoint, that would be the thing that would have tiger withdraw. But show he's been playing golf, he's been hitting these shots. He is, you know, mean, the there's a reason he even bothered to go for the walking test, if you will last week, because he feels like he can hit these golf shots. And the only thing that's stopping him is the walk. Now again, maybe it flares up. I don't know how this works. Maybe it flares out up after one round. Again, I can't imagine him playing four rounds walking on it for four straight days. And winning. Right? I can imagine him sort of getting around and having it be a problem, right? We saw Brooks kept could do it last year didn't win. But he tried it right on something of a bum leg as well. I mean, who knows what the comparison isn't all that. I think he plays. And if that profit is available? Does he hit up all shots? Like yes, I think you have to take that. Because he could hit one shot, he could play one hole. I don't know why he would only play one hole. People are talking. You know, I've heard people say like, they're kind of grimacing about tigers, if like him walking, this course, is going to reactivate his leg like it's not going to reactivate it in like a like a fracture his leg on the second hole. Like unless a car literally drives on to the course. Like, or he's drives a car onto the course. Um, you know, like, that's not the issue. The issue is like pain tolerance, can he handle it? Right? And so if you can't handle it, then he'll withdraw. But it's not going to hurt anybody. Right? And so it's, it's not it's not a thing where people are like, well, he's disrespecting his playing partners, or are these people who like have an alternate to get it. And this isn't a US Open situation where these people have been playing and playing and playing to try to get in this tournament, you either qualified or you didn't, right. And so it's either going to be 91 people or 90 people, it's not going to it's not going to matter. So he's going to try he is going to try and play in this tournament. I think that's, you know, pretty clear by the fact that he survived, if you will, the walking test that he you know, went on last week. And now it's just about sharpening his game. And so give me a yes. On Tiger playing. Yeah, I like

Sheldon: 8:04

that. Definitely would make me want to tune in a little more to the Masters if you tell me Tiger is involved. Um, but in terms of just handicapping the Masters in general. Yeah. What would you say is kind of like your baseline? Or, you know, what's your starting point here on how to handicap the masters?

Matt: 8:23

Yeah, I mean, it's a lot of people talk about this, but it's different from every other tournament, right? Every other tournament, you have strokes gained data, the Masters keeps that stuff for as great as the app is. And it's the best app in all of sports. We don't get the strokes gain data that a lot of people use from the PGA Tour, right? That is a very sort of closely held secret that you know, how guys play from a analytic standpoint. So from a percentage standpoint, if you have you know, your piece of the pie, so to speak, a lot more of the pie is just based on familiarity with the course right past results mattering in this event. And so part of that is the pin placements. And so you can look and see, okay, well, this guy is always good in the first round at the masters like why is Charlie Hoffman always leading the first round of the Masters even though he's nowhere to be found? come Saturday, the pace the pin placements at Augusta National have tradition, right? There's a traditional pin placement for 18 on Saturday on Sunday, you know where that's going to be same thing throughout the week. Same thing with 16 Obviously, the famous Tiger Woods chip in right, the the pin is always over there down the hill on 18 on or excuse me on 16 on Sunday. And so sometimes that Matt, I mean, that matters to you know, sort of, I don't want to say the middling professional but the middling professional who only can fade the ball for example, we can only draw the ball that matters because if the pin on say let's pick a random number here for if the pins on the left side that might shoot suit your shot shape, excuse me, say that five times fast. That might suit your shot shape when it's on the left side, but when that's on the right side, that might be a very difficult shot for you, right. And that's why you see the guys like Patrick Reed and Bubba Watson, guys who can shape their ball both ways. Having won this tournament, short game matters as well, a lot of times, these PGA tournaments, what happens in the ball misses the green goes into the same two to three inch Rough that we see all the time. at Augusta National, it's a lot of shorn some, you know, shorter grass, the chipping is a lot more intricate, it's a different deal. instead of blasting a ball out of long, long, rough, you're chipping out a short, rough, it's a very different skill set. So the stuff that you take on a week to week basis that would analyze a player for a tournament kind of gets thrown out the window. And so the best case, best thing you can do is sort of just look at players and be like, okay, is this guy historically good here kinda doesn't matter, His form, etc, etc. Like, that's the stuff that matters here more at the Masters, why Fred couples for the longest time, like he'd be in the mix on Saturday, and then, you know, again, he be 40, something 50 something years old and barely played all year. And he's actually playing really well. And so it's a different deal for the Masters. That's what makes it fun beyond the fact that like, it's the first sign of spring, and all of that sort of stuff. It's a different deal when it comes to handicapping masters.

Sheldon: 11:16

Super interesting stuff. And when you look at, you know, betting golf in general, there's two different ways you Well, there's a lot of different ways, but two of the ways that you can really look at things is how someone is traditionally done at the tournament, but also, how are they playing at the time of the current tournament? How do you kind of compare or contrast? Those two ways of looking at betting on someone heading into the tournament?

Matt: 11:41

Yeah, I mean, obviously, you'd like to have somebody who's playing really well, in theory, right. But again, when we're measuring that, how are they playing? Well, are they playing really well, when they miss the green? Because their chip, they're, you know, chipping out of long grass is really good. Well, that's not going to help you. Right? Are they playing some of these other cores, right, we just saw Austin country club played the match play, right? Obviously, that's a different skill set on a relatively shorter course, than Augusta National, which is a pretty big ballpark. And so I look at it and I go, I don't know that that matters all that much. And sometimes luck of the draw or sort of these sorts of things happen right beside Deki Matsuyama. kind of come out of nowhere, a guy who's gained really fit Augusta National, but who didn't really get the results for a really long time at Augusta National. And late last year, he's not even playing particularly well not on many people's radar. And then it finally clicks for Becky now part of the thing that clicked for Becky last year, is he got one of the all time breaks when it comes to weather and nobody talks about it because nobody likes to sort of take away for somebody from somebody accomplishment. But what a decade doesn't do well is putt he's kind of an atrocious putter relative to how amazing he is actually hitting the golf ball in the air accurately. Once it's on the ground. It's kind of a mess for Hideki. And so he's able to sort of get by by being such a good ball striker that the putting sort of, okay, like it's not great, but like he's doing just enough out there to be in contention. Well, last year on Saturday, he's doing just enough he's in contention to the putting is not great. And then all of a sudden there is a downpour of rain and it stops play for like an hour, hour and a half in the middle of Saturday, you know, third round. And when it comes back, no one in the field can hit a putt because the the conditions have changed, right? The Greens have become softer, they are not as fast as people are used to right. Augusta National, very famous for having fast greens, but had Deki who's been blowing putts by the whole entire day or the entire week or is dire career is now all of a sudden find in the hole like this. It's not like he changed to fit the golf course or to fit the greens, the greens kind of changed to fit him in a way. And so he ends up going on a tear during that damn green phase, we'll call it we'll call it the wet green situation. During the wet green situation. He's pouring in all these birdies. And he goes from like fifth place to like a three or four shot lead in a matter of like two hours. And then he sits on the lead and nobody can catch him. And he plays good enough on Sunday. And he shot like even par one over something along those lines. But he already had enough of a lead because of the damp green situation on Saturday that like fit him perfectly, like just running into it running into a Masters championship running into a green jacket. So like these are the types of things like it doesn't really matter how well you're playing coming in. Because you're playing in Florida, you're playing California, you're playing short courses, longer courses, these different types of courses. I mean, there's kind of nothing like Augusta National and so the key is your preparation. And whether that means going to the course early, or whether that means having played this a bunch of times for a long time, the sort of average amount of times you needed to play this tournament was like seven or eight like you needed six, seven tournaments at this course to like, get it figured out. And you had to combine that with like playing really well and Having the skill set going in so couple of different elements that aren't normally how this sort of works but it isn't about oh man, Scottie Scheffler has won three tournaments here and taking the number one ranking like I'm sorry, that's just not a guy that I'm going to be betting on because this is just a different ballgame right? It's just not

Sheldon: 15:17

Yeah, I find that super interesting and you said someone that you won't be betting on as in someone to fade and I always find this interesting fun game if you if you know me, you know, I'm very I enjoy the works of Jay Z, one of his favorite songs is Friend or foe and that makes me think of friend or fade here so who's someone that you like and who's someone that you're going to fade here just go through give me a list of dudes You're fading or do to your friends who you like

Matt: 15:48

Yeah, another twist in all of this right is like I like to make a couple bets on guys to miss the cut. I like to do that on a weekly basis. I give out speaking of fades, I have my drawers in my fades. The drawers are the good players. I like this week, the fades and I don't. Right. And so one of those people that have been on the fade list is Bryson D Shambo, right. He's come back from a couple of different injuries and got basically immediately ejected from the match play tournament. And you know, he had I think he had one tie against Richard bland, who's almost 50 years old is one of the worst matches I've ever seen in my life. But they somehow managed to tie because they were both equally bad. And then Dave Chappelle immediately lost his next two matches, and was out. Then he comes back last week, easy fade to miss the cut at the Valero Texas open. He's completely lost right now. But here's the problem show, like we talked about with the Tiger Woods issue, there's only gonna be 90 players in this field. Which means and listen, a lot of those guys, because one of the things that gets you into the field is having won the Masters before there's a handful of those 90 who are not a contender, right, you can automatically take out the 10 to 15 to 20 players who just have zero chance of winning this tournament they got in because they won the amateur here or the this that or whatever or they won the Masters back in 1987. Right, like Nick Faldo could play in this tournament, if he wanted to, I don't know if sir Nick is going to play in it. But I'm certainly not going to think that he's going to make the cut, watch and play and make the cut. But the point is, is like the cut, you're cutting less people, which means it's easier to make the cut, which means I can't make any bets to fade anybody because the odds don't reflect how difficult it is to miss the cut. Like you really have to go out of your way to screw things up in order to miss the cut in this tournament. And yeah, a lot of guys do. We have seen some of the top players in the game missed the cut, they just have that kind of Thursday and Friday, but the odds aren't reflective of you know, an accurate percentage of that right because they are built a little bit you know, they are they are not that different from last week when there was 150 players in that tournament right they are not that different from the US Open a couple months from now or for the PGA next month where there's going to be 150 some odd players and like that's going to create a harder cut to make this one's a very easy cut to make and honestly if you had that much faith in Tiger Batum to make the cut you know at least it's just sort of do that because it is relatively easy to to make the cut and I don't know the number nest yet on that. That'll be sort of interesting to see what sort of how the adjustment is made on Tiger from that standpoint. But you know, so right now the fade list is more like a steer clear list. Right? So de Shambo is on that list. Tony fee now is a guy who has always popped up and I know that I just said listen this is more of a horse for course type situation don't worry about a guy's you know a guy's forum coming in. This is more about don't get too drunk on the fact that somebody's playing well, but if you're not playing well, I can't imagine you just find it at Augusta right you sort of I would like to find somebody that sort of in the middle of the pack there when it comes to their form finos form has been a nightmare this year so he is not you know he is off the list easily there and you see that with his odd sort of tumbling down here but again, guys that are tough to fade based on the circumstance there's always the hot guy right the guys that every all the all the Gulf handicappers ever he's trying to hit the first oh this guy is you know wins the Masters first first ever major championship and yeah, that happened with a Deki somehow nobody ended up getting him I'm sure somebody out there bet on Deki. But like the Daniel burgers of the world, right. I mentioned Schaeffler, obviously Schaeffler has gotten to the point where there's no value on him being now the number one golfer in the world he's certainly under 21 At this point, find it hard to believe that he will win this tournament. Berger, Sam Burns, Louie use Hasan, right? Always these guys are like maybe they get it done now and obviously a couple of situations, you know, burger and burns, certainly much younger than Louie who stays in bed like those are the types of names that you'll see pop up right where it's like walking Niemann like yeah, okay, he won a tournament earlier this year. And like that was a really big deal for him. hadn't done anything since and he doesn't really have a track record or the type of game from a trajectory. So I want to be able to hold greens at Augusta National. And so I just go like I you know, I watch these people do it. I'm like, you're really going back to the Daniel burger. Well, like he and he's lit. And it's not even these guys are in contention, right? Like Daniel Berger is never in contention at any of these majors. And yet people still go and they're like, Well, he did really, really well at the shell Houston open. And it's like a great man. Listen, we're talking different sports in a lot of ways here. So then we go, okay, well, who do you like, right, and a lot of it comes down to price and sort of strategy. And we'll kind of talk about the concept of live betting here in a second. But I'll put it this way, Golf has never been as good as it is right now as far as depth of talent. And really, the reason why Tiger Woods is not going to win this tournament, is because this isn't 2005 where he is that much better than everybody else. There are so many incredibly talented golfers, so many guys who could win. So the group of people who are going to win is going to come from the phone, and we'll go through why I like or don't like each one of them. John ROM, obviously, previous number one in the world until Schaeffler went on this crazy run here, struggling lately, again, don't want to get too caught up in that. But if he was 22 one, I'd be interested. But he's not he is still somehow the favorite. And we talked about shot shape and all of that stuff mattering on a day to day basis. Ron has this history of kind of shooting himself out of the tournament on Thursday and Friday, and then going ham on Saturday, and especially Sunday, right? The pin placements, I think, suit him better on Sunday. And so if that's the case, if my working theory, here is the case, I kind of want to see how far back he gets on Thursday and Friday. And then I'll hop in on John rom maybe before Saturday, and see if he can make that push and instead of sort of backdooring a top five backdooring a top 10 which his history is littered with, oh, he finished third in that year. And it's like he I don't remember him ever being on the broadcast. It's like Yeah, cuz he finished six holes ahead of everybody else because he went he shot a 64 on the last day after being not anywhere near the top of the leaderboard. So he is more of a live betting candidate than anybody else. Justin Thomas, I always want to bet on Justin Thomas. I'm always like, this isn't for Justin Thomas. But the reality is that 2016 PGA Championship is getting further and further in our rear view. He should be playing well enough to contend in this he was contending last year when the rains came for her Deki I haven't decided what I'm going to do with JT in this. I'm more interested in the next guy on my list here. And that's Dustin Johnson guy who want it at the weird time that they had it when they had it in the fall after the pandemic or after, you know COVID broke or whatever. DJ you know, he finished in finishing fourth at the match play but he was pretty awesome in that tournament. This is a guy who's obviously won this before can certainly contend here. And if we're getting you know think about it again that use the pie chart example. If Schaeffler is getting more of the pie from a win probability standpoint in the odds market if ROM is still getting a ton of credit. The next guy on my list cam Smith, playing great playing few and far between but when he plays, he wins. But the market is aware of that and they have nailed he is down to 16 to one right now it's the same deal as Schaeffler where it's like, Man, I loved Kim Smith at 42 one back in January, but it's 16 to one I can't make that play. But if other guys are taking away this win probability in the market, you know what that means? It means there's gonna be some decent deals on some all time greats, and Dustin Johnson is one of those guys and so Justin Johnson is a guy that I'm looking to play. And again, we're talking about a pot of really good players here Sheffler the next one Rory McIlroy, right it's too much Ferrari and he's again flying under the radar here because we all want it to work for Rory get the Career Grand Slam finally exercise those masters demons. That's not really how the Masters works, man like the demons don't just get exercised. Like the one of the old timers was Phil Mickelson, a name who should not be named being of players who are not at Augusta this year, for many reasons. Um, you know, that was an old timer when he first won because he exercised some demons. Nobody else does that right. It's just kind of like came out of nowhere, or I dominate this tournament. I win all the time, you know, or some combination of those two, so I'm going to stay away from McElroy because it's all just too much for him. Call him or a cow. Could he win? Absolutely. A third major already does feel a little outrageous right now for a guy who's putting isn't where it needs to be in at Augusta National with the speed of those greens. Right. I'm going to need to see it for a couple more years before I believe that he can win this tournament. Brooks KEPCO you know, a guy who I mentioned the injuries from a couple of years ago. We also had him listen, I remember speaking of you know no amount of money is going to be worth it when it comes to Tiger Woods winning Brooks Kefka I had money on I think it was close to four figures. I would have won if Brooks Kefka had won the 2019 Masters. I don't care I was that excited that tiger one right like I was fine with Brooks not winning as he was you know, I think one shot away from winning that masters you know, over that course of time where Brooks and Tiger were kind of battling it out with you know, the obviously Brooks won the PGA the year before knocking off Tiger and one of the more electric runs that Tigers had in a losing cause, but Brooks koepka I think he's, you know, back to form right this is a guy who turns it up for majors when the injuries aren't affecting him when he's not hobbling around the tournament like he was last year or some of these other years prior to 2019 He's certainly capable and so I think with all this group and all of these guys taking these wind probability percentages away, I think cap gun I think DJ are actually you're getting a decent price on these two guys, right? You're gonna get DJ cap. Like if they won would you be surprised? And of course the answer to that is absolutely not. But like when you have all these other guys sort of bucking their head here because of the Florida swing or their how they did in California. Almost swoop in man, I'll swoop in and grab these guys look at these numbers 16 to one on Dustin Johnson a guy who a lot of the times closer to 12 to one and Brooks kept good 20 to one even available at some better prices elsewhere. A couple more guys to sort of talk about here Viktor Hovland if more cow can win, so can Viktor Hovland but the short game isn't good enough right now Now the key is okay, is Victor short game is chipping and putting, is that an issue because he's not good at reading lies out of long grass. Because if that's Victor Holden's issue, then that's okay, because he's not going to have those situations all that often here at Augusta National Victor Hollins, shipping off of tight lies, right, shorter grass, if that's okay, he can absolutely win this because he is as good of a ball striker and has the length that you know, can compete and I think the market is indicating that that is, you know, at least a possibility here as he's available 20 to one as well. Other guys in that mix. You've got Jordan Spaeth, I always say, you know, I have to bet Jordan Spaeth, its Augusta. That would be the one guy that if he's not playing well coming in which he is not really playing all that well coming in, could turn it on at Augusta. Again, that's one that I'm going to want to see live right, because you'll know on day one, is this Jordan off the planet? Or is this Jordan like on top of things, and there's going to be enough other guys that the odds aren't going to change drastically or you know, he's gonna go from 20 to one to like 15 to one or something on those lines, we will still be able to hop in Cantlay shopfully. Right. The question there is these guys can win. They have had the experience of contending in this tournament. But how much have they learned? Is it their time to put it all together? So wow, I don't want anything to do with the SAM Burns's and the Daniel burgers. And some of these other guys that people are going to talk yourself into those guys are interesting, but you know what, they're also in the 20 to one range. And to me, that's just a little bit too short. And so I will sort of look at those two guys as an entity. And I will see Okay, which one of those guys is playing? Well, because they played a lot better last year than they have been this year. And so I'm a little bit less interested in them certainly at the price that they're have as far as a longer shot type of a play. Wills Allah Taurus at 40 to one I you know, listen, he is a hard guy to watch, but I don't you know, I don't I don't disagree with just the horror that every week when we're watching Roselle, tourismus short putts. But at the match play, they talked about on the broadcast how he tweaked something, with the weighting in his putter. And his putter excuse me, and his putting in the match play was much better. And maybe it's just something like that for a guy who we already know can hit the ball right long, accurate into the greens right was contending in that tournament was I think just last year with a Deki. Right? He was in the mix. Again, it says what second or third time there that's not ideal, necessarily. But this is a guy who can get the putt the ball near the hole. And if the putting from like four feet isn't isn't what it was before where it was like, oh god, he's missed another one. Oh god, he's didn't even hit the hole on that one. That sort of thing. At 40 to one he's to me a better bet than the cat lays the shot Lilies of the world who have a lot of scar tissue sort of added up here and adulterous is feeling really good about how he's putting. And that's the one reason why you wouldn't want valid tourists who by the way, like is the same age as Jordan speed, right? This isn't a kid off the street. Like, I think I've got to make a bet here on salad tour. So I'm looking at DJ at 16 to one kept get 22 One and salad tourists at 42. One before the tournament starts. Now you can go deeper than that. But there's just too many guys in that group. Think about all those golfers that I just mentioned that all of those guys are going to get beat by somebody else. And maybe that's Tiger Woods. Maybe that's, you know, fill in the blank random guy, Corey Connors for those Canadians out there. You know, I just don't see it. I think it has to come from that group of like 15 to 20 Guys and so I'm going to grab three guys right there when we're talking about deeper down the way. The only other way I play golf betting golf majors is top 20 right if I don't think I'm not loving you to win because I think there's too many other guys who can win. The top 20 is how I'm going to play at some plus prices. So I have a handful of guys here at in the top 20. That I think, you know, we get beyond obviously the meat of the issue here and we're going to get these guys a plus 250 or better. And it starts with Tommy Fleetwood. I'm going back on my BS with Tommy Fleetwood, I can't quit Tommy, he's playing much better. When Tommy's hot, I think you can you can bank on him to play pretty well here and play for four rounds. And again, because it's a four round tournament, ie it's hard to miss the cut. That means the better player is going to sort of cream rise to the top type situation, right? The more you play, the better, you know, the longer you have to sort of show how good you are. And in this case, I think Tommy Fleetwood is a decent bet to get his way into the top 20. This year, Mark Leishman a guy speaking of horse for the course, is the guy who's always in the mix, he's never going to win it, he is almost always going to finish like 12. And so for a top 20 Here, a plus 250 Or better, I'm absolutely on Marc Leishman. Francesco Molinari, a guy who sort of fallen off since that 2019 Masters when he was sort of the end of a really, really amazing run for Molinari. And we get into this theme now here with these last few guys who are like 100 Plus to one to win it, have no chance to win it, but you'll sit there and you'll be like, I think I saw one shot of him all week. Oh, he finished 14th. That's really impressive. Molinari, Sergio Garcia, right. I think Sergio has this chance of being the next guy who even though he's might not be playing well, listen, Sergio, still top golfers in the match plan for top 75 in the world. Top excuse me, 64 in the world. Um, I think he's gonna be a guy when he's like, 52. It's like Sergio Garcia is in third on Saturdays. 52 year old Sergio, how is it pulling this off? Like that's the type of thing I think we're gonna see from Sergio here in the next like, decade plus, and the guy who is that dude right now, wait for it to show your man's Bernhard longer. Right now. He's like 1000 to one to win the tournament. There's no way Bernard is gonna win the tournament. But we're looking at a tournament here where we could have some sketchier conditions, right, we could have some wind, we could have something along those lines. Bernard who just absolutely runs it on the Champions Tour, he's gonna come in here, he's gonna shoot a 72 in the first day, you're gonna be like, Oh, burner, 72 Pretty good, even par nicely done. Nobody's gonna think anything of it, then he's gonna shoot like a 70. On Friday, maybe like Bernard longers minus two and the leaders at minus seven like, Well, five shots back, that's pretty good. And he's just gonna shoot another part, you know, round 72 It's gonna be minus two still, and he's gonna not bear anywhere near the lead. But he's just going to get around. And he's gonna end up finishing like minus one on the tournament. And the leader is going to win with like a minus nine or something like that. And he's going to somehow like five to one or better is going to end up at the top 20. Again, it's a longer shot, especially when it comes to a top 20 type of bet. But Bernard longer is that guy the way Fred couples was that guy the way Jack Nicklaus was that guy, you know, people forget he had a top 10 At the age of like, 56, something along those lines back in 1998, the year after Tiger one. So I mean, let's like there's a lot going on that you know, you need to have length, but you need to have smarts when it comes to the masters and Augusta National. You need to know where to play the shots. And some of these guys who have won it before, who maybe aren't that likely to win are certainly capable of contending.

Sheldon: 33:19

Yeah, no, it makes total sense. And speaking of knowing how to make the shots, how about knowing how to make the shots from a betting standpoint, because for me, I enjoy live betting we talked about live in game betting and basketball being my favorite thing ever. But maybe you could talk to me a bit about in game or live betting? Golf. Yeah, masters like, is that a thing?

Matt: 33:43

It's definitely a thing. And it's the best when it comes to the masters. Because the app is so much better than the PGA regular app. I don't know all the money that the Masters makes, I think they just funnel it directly into their app because it is outstanding. So it's actually a really good experience. From that standpoint, you can get a bunch of different screens going bunch of different, you know, feature groups, all of that kind of thing. But why the Masters is really great from a life ending standpoint is think about, like the cliches that we talked about when it comes to the Masters right? Saturday moving day at Augusta. Right? What does that mean? Well, it means that there's going to be enough happening on Saturday that there's some giant swings. And this is a course that is capable of handing you a 63 or you end up dumping the ball in the water a couple of times right on, you know what, amen corner, the 12th hole, the different par fives guys going for it, you know, hitting the ball in the water, like it can get really sketchy out there quick, you can end up with a 75. And so there's a really wide swath of like results. And so moving day, and oh, the Masters doesn't really start until the back nine on Sunday. Think about those cliches those things are cliches because they're true. Because if it doesn't really start until the back nine on Sunday, now that was a literal, that was the literal case back in the day where the broadcast literally didn't start until the back nine on Sunday. But like you can see guys go out and have really good rounds or really bad rounds. You think Tiger Woods when he destroyed the field back in 1997. He shot 40 on the front nine, right for over 40 on the front nine ended up setting like the all time record for scoring in that tournament. Yeah, just goes to show man like you can make comebacks in this tournament. Right. We see it all the time. And so people get caught up. The oddsmakers get caught up after the first day in the middle of the first day, in the middle of the second day, moving the odds up and down. Think about the group of people that I just mentioned here who have a chance to win. Yeah, was in the last round is worth just as much as the first round. But this but the oddsmakers wait the first round, because that's the thing that we have seen. That's the one thing that we can bank on, right. And so when I talk about like grabbing wrong, not wanting him at 1211 to one, it's not going to take that much right just to sort of mediocre 72 in that first round for John Ron to fall down to like a 20 to one, especially if some of these other big names have their good rounds. If you figure all of these 20 guys that I mentioned, all they're capable of one awesome round, one very good round, and then two, like just got around enough to survive. They don't all have to happen at the same time. They don't have to all happen in the same order. And why Rahm is such a good target is because we think that he can do it on that final day. Whereas a Rory McIlroy necessarily isn't the guy that I'm looking to back on that final day. And it's why I'm not going to bet him in this tournament, right? He's going to have to create such a lead that even he can sort of mentally sort of fall out of contention, right. And so, you know, there's nothing you can do about that from a faith standpoint. But what you can do is throughout the tournament, sort of pick off good prices and like I just listed off 20 Guys on why I like or dislike each one of them. But a lot of those guys are am I expecting them to have good first rounds, right? The reason I want Salah Taurus kept get and Johnson is because those guys I think can have good first rounds. And so that may be the price that I'm getting right now is the best that I'm going to get. So my advice to people out there is of that group of people that I think can win circle four or five guys and keep rom on one of those, you know, on that list, as a guy that you're like you sort of mentally already decide that you have bet on, right, like, be like, Okay, let's say it's Hovland and just save before the term. Okay, I am in my head, I'm putting $10 on Viktor Hovland at 22. One, only, I'm not actually going to make that bet. But in my mind, I've made that bet so that if he loses that money is already gone. But what I'm going to do here is I'm going to wait till Friday night, Friday morning, Thursday, whatever, like at some point, it depends on the tee times when those than those come in. But just understand, okay, when I can get a better number on Viktor Hovland, I'm going to do that, right. And so that $10 is already gone, even if it's not really already gone. So say something happens, he hasn't MJC first round, he goes to 30 to 140 to one, boom, put your $10 down and just trust that your initial instinct that over the course of four rounds, he is going to be in the mix come Sunday, right? You don't have to make the bed, literally make the bed in your head, make the bed and pick out those guys, the live targets, if you will, it could be cam Smith, it could be Scottie Scheffler, right, because again, we don't want them now, because they're at 16 to one, but if after a round or so they're five shots back, that's not all that much on this course. And if you're getting a 30 to one or 40 to one the type of price that they used to be, that's where I would hop in on those guys. And so like you know, listen, you get deep into the weeds as far as like betting hole by hole and doing all that kind of stuff. Be very careful. Careful when it comes to that. Just understand that one round in around and a half in. Not all is lost for some of these guys that you have targeted before the tournament starts.

Sheldon: 38:43

Amazing stuff, my dude and of course, I'm glad that we targeted you to come on here and discuss said masters but of course people want to follow along with you on your ride while you're enjoying the Masters in the azaleas. And Jim Nance is whispering but oh, where can people find you online?

Matt: 39:01

Yeah, man at Mrs. Authentic I do my best to sort of, you know, listen, we do some of these podcasts. And it's like, hey, let's get this team let's get this team. And we don't talk about a lot a lot of live betting stuff but because live betting is such an element to this and like by the way, right like just because you know I use Hogan as an example. If he's 20 to one now and then he's in the mix and he drops to 10 to one eight to one something along those lines. Feel free to bet that at a worse number because I think a lot of times you get caught up in the idea of man I don't know I could have had him at 20 before the tournament but like he ended up shooting 65 In the first day like I missed out on that like first of all, don't buy at that low price, give it another round see how it goes. But you know what if he gets to a point We saw this with a Deki last year where he had a four shot lead I think he was like even money to win the tournament. And I was like, You know what, if I was betting on a basketball game, I would be fine with an even money win right like so don't get caught up in like Oh, you better gonna golf on a golf tournament and you got the winner but you got an eight to one when he was 22 What a loser. And it's like, if I bet somebody in like NBA in the NBA and they hit it an eight to one money line, I'd be doing a parade for myself down the street. So like, don't get too caught up in that. But the point is at Mrs. Authentic on Twitter is where I will try to sort of, I'll send out what I've got when it comes to a live betting situation. The other fun part about the Masters is, we are so familiar with this course, we know what to expect, right? We know once you get through 13 and 15. That's kind of your high point. Right? That would be the sell high point, because you've probably made a couple of birdies, something along those lines. We know when you have 13 and 15 still left to play. While you there could be a couple of eagles in there. Right? These these are a gullible holes, if you will, you know that the guys who are further back again, that's part of the live betting experience, the guys who are further back on the course have more of a chance to make up ground because of 16 on Sunday, that's a hole in one type of a hole right with the way the ball rolls down that hill, if you can just get it down the slope, you've got a chance to make even a hole in one and certainly a birdie, there's a ton of scoring opportunities. So it can be tricky as far as getting those live bets out. But certainly through the first three days, I'll do my best to be able to get that out at Mrs. Authentic, who I'm targeting and who I've met who I'm grabbing and when I'm grabbing them for a live betting shot here to win the Masters.

Sheldon: 41:19

Sounds good my doing and I look forward to enjoying.

Matt: 41:25

Thank you very much my friend.

Sheldon: 41:32

Thanks to Matt for coming on the pod and if you want to follow me online, you can do so on Instagram at Sheldon Alexander and on Twitter at Shell Alexander. Don't forget to LIKE subscribe to DRF sports podcast wherever you get your podcasts. Also rate us review us like us all that other fun stuff. But for more from this new project from DRF sports. Just a little reminder, you're unfamiliar with the letters DRF stands for daily racing form, which has been around for over 100 years giving you all of the horse racing information, data and analysis. But now we've taken over the entire sports world. So if you want coverage on every football game, as well as the NBA MLB, college sports and more, head to drf.com/sports for all the details and insights as the site has all of the data on every game, including offensive and defensive stats, bending angles, line movements, key injuries, Team stats, and more. The DRF data is what powers our power trends. If you want to see which trends our analysts have selected, follow us on Instagram and on Twitter. If you want access to all the rod data drf.com/sports That's where you can find the usual previews as we deep dive into the games. Of course, gotcha covered on this podcast. However you want your betting information. We've got you covered. Again, my name is Shaun Alexander. That's all I got for now. But until next time, see.

DRF Sports: 43:03

Thanks for listening to the DRF sports podcast. Please subscribe rate and review the show. For more sports betting advice go to drf.com backslash sports and follow us on Twitter at DRF underscore sports

The Masters Preview | Episode 62

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