DRF Sports: 0:01

Welcome to the DRF sports podcast brought to you by DRF. Sports. America's most trusted name in horse racing is now providing sports bettors with exclusive data analytics previews videos and expert picks on all major sports, but smarter and have more fun doing it. It's the DRF sports podcast and now your host, Sheldon Alexander. Ready Set that

Sheldon: 0:28

this is the DRF sports podcast episode 33. Make sure you like and follow wherever you get your podcasts. I'm your host, Sheldon Alexandra. And it was another wild week of football. That isn't even really over yet. And there's two Tuesday night games, but we're fresh off of a doubleheader on Monday night. And we should have gone to an O let's be serious, but I have no idea what the bears are doing. I have no idea how they weren't able to cover that. All I can say is that was art. How they were unable to cover seven and a half points, just finding new and different ways to not score in the red zone. Only the Chicago Bears could do that. More on that in a sec, for sure. But first off, have you checked out cash grab cash, grab his DRF sports all new, free to play sports prediction game where you can win real money. It's available to every sports fan in the App Store and the Google Play Store. Win real cash prizes every day. As well as a chance to win big money jackpots. All you have to do is download the free DRF cash grab app, create an account, start predicting who will win the first quarter. How many touchdowns will George Kittel score? Answering questions like these can end in you making real money? Maybe you should start betting on how many touchdowns will debo Samuels score but story for another day. Either way, download the DRF cash grab app now and win big and hopefully you can win some cash here as well as we do this podcast twice a week. On Tuesdays we recap the week that was and on Fridays. It's the pics pod. And today yeah, we're recapping the week that was but we also got more pics coming to you for sure. Lots of football to talk about including the Detroit Lions coming up big, some crazy games. But first, something else that you need to make sure that you stick to his DRF sports Sunday scoop e newsletter. If you haven't done so already, make sure you sign up for free at drf.com/sports receive two free weekly newsletters delivered to your email inbox every Friday and Sunday. Both are packed with powerful bedding angles you don't want to miss again drf.com/sports For all the insight and analysis you need each and every day. Plus, of course, we go in depth on this podcast. As mentioned on today's episode, we're still recapping the week that was we're hitting you with some midweek picks so much to break down so much to talk about including the ending of that wild bears game. So of course, got Matt Russell, he's coming through. And luckily for y'all, he starts right about now. The holiday season is officially here. And the NFL is a gift that just keeps on giving isn't it? The games just don't seem to stop and neither do we here on the DRF sports podcast. And of course my guy, Matt Russell joins us and right off the bat. I'm jumping right into it. Because I'm still fired up. I gotta ask for the end of that bears Vikings. Because I I don't recall and I'm sure there's something like this has happened before. But I feel like it might have been on a game winning touchdown with no time left on the clock. But just to run things down in case people missed it. Which if you're listening to this pod, I don't know how you would have missed it. But for the lames Here we go. The Vikings spread was essentially seven, seven and a half, let's say yeah, and the bears are driving and first off. I have no idea how the bears didn't cover this game easily. But of course it just ends perfectly right? Bears are driving down the field. They score touchdown with zero time left on the clock. Now the first official who's right there says no touchdown for some reason. I have no idea why. But then you can see on the replay. Obviously it's a touchdown. Somehow someone I need you to explain to me doesn't call this a touchdown, but then they don't allow for the extra point to be kicked. I don't know whose decision that is. I don't know how that happens because the broadcast still don't acknowledge why the majority of us are still watching this trash game. Monday, right? So the broadcast doesn't explain it. And all of a sudden, you're just like, You know what, we're not gonna kick this extra point. So the game ends 17 and nine. Yeah, well, yeah, the only reason anyone's really watching that game unless you are Oh, loser Bears fan or a loser Vikings fan? Is because you got some money going on this game, right? Yeah. And 79 meaning the Vikings cover. No extra point kicked. How did this happen? Why did this happen? How is this part of the rules? I'm so confused. Can you help me out my dude?

Matt: 5:19

Yeah. And so ironically Of course it actually stems back to a famous Vikings game the playoffs but three years ago, the Minneapolis miracle. You know, obviously Minneapolis miracle happens the Vikings win the game on that insane Stefon Diggs touchdown. Everybody goes running around, digs, the helmet goes, everybody get you know, walks off the field, and the Vikings win. And then they go Yeah, but we got to kick the Extra Point, everybody. Hey, guys, come on back. We gotta, we gotta go through this extra point thing and the Vikings like we don't even want to, like we're already partying like Stefon Diggs is already like knee deep and a bottle of champagne. And they're like, No, man, sorry, we got to bring them back out here. It's everybody sort of trenches their way out there. And they don't even kick the Extra Point. Because again, why would you, they just kneel it out. So whether it's a one point victory, a four point victory on eight point loss, they decided after that unless it is fundamental to the game results. We don't kick the extra point when zeros are on the clock. Now, I think again, ironically, and this one's I don't remember this one quite as well. But I think it was the playoffs last year, where the bears were at New Orleans. And they scored a late touchdown. I think it was Jimmy Graham or Cole command. I can't figure out which ones which at this point, one of those two guys scored a late touchdown. And that was it. Right. And it wasn't I don't think it necessarily mattered to the spread. I think it actually got them inside of the teaser number that day. And so everybody was kind of fine with it. Nobody was really bothered by it, right. And so like, it's funny how these things do happen. And they do sort of, you know, the rule does come into play, it's just in the less the point spread is involved. None of us really have an issue with it. And so I you know, I saw you were on plus seven and a half man, and you did everything, right. Everything right. And that's the stuff that we talked about with the last couple of weeks, and where the last couple of weeks have gone awry. And this week, we did okay, like we ended up having a winning week. And so Okay, great. We're sort of back on the horse, if you will, but you still have these games. Now. We talked on Friday morning about this game. And I was like, Well, you know, fundamentally, what happened in this game from a pointspread standpoint was open three and a half for the Vikings, right? And I'm like, Well, my number actually was four for that game, if everybody was okay, everybody was healthy, etc, etc. But I fundamentally was never going to bet on the Vikings in this spot. So I knew that I liked the bears. And we talked about that, right. And but of course, given everything that was going on, we certainly weren't going to make that bet, on Friday morning, as that lie had moved up to four and a half, five, because of some, you know, coaching positives, and like the odd positive here, there. And so it was sort of working out perfectly, the way that we'd want it to is where Monday would roll around. And all of a sudden, it was seven. And you had the patience of anyone here, waiting and waiting and waiting and grabbing seven and a half, like I jumped the gun with a couple hours before the game started. And I was just like, I fine, I'll take the plus seven. Like, you know, I don't want this to go back to six and a half, when people realize that these cluster injuries in this case for the bears didn't really matter all that much. Right. And again, like we've talked about this over and over and over again, whether it's, you know, widespread injuries to the Cardinals, I mean, just pick your team at this point. I mean, certainly the case for the Browns as well, yesterday, we can talk about that game too. But like these injuries to non like literally that not the top echelon of the play of players on a team. And even when they do they're usually over exaggerated, right? We had obviously the Cardinals without Kyler Murray adventure throughout the middle of the season. Just waiting, waiting and waiting and allowing the lions to just slightly in some cases overreact for themselves is the strategy this season it will be the strategy next season it is probably the strategy for all seasons, because honestly not that many people really matter that much to the point spread and the ones that do matter much to the point spread are often given too much credit against the point spread right and so the thing is like you You waited You did great as far as like when you came in when your what your market entry point was, and I felt like so did I and then we go to watch the game, because if the handicap for why we wanted to grab the bears as late as we did was we don't think that Kirk Cousins is going to take advantage of whomever is out there in the secondary. Then we were right. We were banging on right like this, this guy and it does the same thing against the Steelers where they do Take this huge lead because Dalvin Cook is running through the secondary like a Swiss boy through a meadow. And we're just sitting there going like Kirk Cousins not doing it like and, you know, it's stupid to sort of handicap something by like, well Kirk Cousins at primetime, right? Or like Tom Brady's bedtime or whatever. But like, How many times do they flesh out that Kirk Cousins is like one three out of his last four primetime games, but you're just like, I don't know what the other two were before these last two. But this wasn't Kirk Cousins. And it wasn't Kirk Cousins last Thursday either. And so you know, you kind of nailed it as far as like market entry point. The handicap of why you would bet this team because the inflation of the point spread is too much. Like all of these things you are correct on and even if we decided like, oh man, like the bears, though, right? Like it's the bears. It's naggy like all of those things like, that's why the point spread exists, right? Like the sports aware and the market is aware that Matt naggy is stooge. And they are aware that the bears are going to bear but like the bears are out there going up and down the field on the Vikings, right? So and it's so painfully easy in a lot of ways, because they get into the red zone, and then something happens and it all just kind of falls apart whether it's a fumble of whichever there were two three of them something along those lines, and fourth down. And like the eye, the irony and all of this thing, right is that they fail two times in the last What, like eight or so minutes, inside the red zone on fourth down. And again, I'm not advocating for this, I'm just saying like it's humorous, because if they had kicked two field goals in that situation, which would have been objectively the wrong thing to do, given the circumstance, but at fourth and what six and fourth and nine, we all just decided because they were down 14 That like yeah, it's correct. Like you just kind of have to do it gonna have to go right they would have been down eight for that last drive. And then the last drive that gets a touchdown scored in it, we would have actually had to see them, you know, execute the two point conversion with zero seconds on the clock, right. But for some reason, the heart those who were dying for field goals in the first drive, and in the first half of the Chargers chiefs game on Thursday. Yeah, for the heart, those who are constantly dying for these field goals to be kicked which somehow we went from a space where we didn't want anybody kicking field goals, because we know that that's a lame way to try to win a game. And now everybody's dying to kick field goals. Nobody was against it. When Matt naggy was going through stuff on fourth and eighth and fourth, and none I'm not saying that it was the wrong thing. It's just the irony of it all, where if he actually had kicked those field goals, they would have been a lot better spot and certainly would have Shouldn't you never know for sure, and all that sort of thing because you know, game path and etc, etc. But like, it's just kind of hilarious that like we just finished reading finished the week because we still got two more games here. But we finished Monday night, Monday Night Football with like, oh man, if they had just kicked a bunch of field goals along the way, like we would be in such better shape and all this game. So I mean, you're absolutely on the right side with the bears. They're out there. And for me, I mean, I got around Monday, we talked about it, as you know, conceptually sort of a best bet. But like, by the time Monday rolls around, I'm like, I'm just gonna put like a regular bet down on this. Because yeah, I mean, all of these guys are out in the secondary for the bears. And it is worth mentioning as we sort of move on to everything else that happened this weekend. Think about it from a positional standpoint, right? It's the scarcity concept of a position when we're dealing with cluster injuries going forward. Right. So we, you know, it's common knowledge that running backs are replaceable, right? Because physically from a stature standpoint, like you don't have to be, you know, you know, genetically special, right to be a running back there are a lot of guys out there who are about six feet tall, you know, rocked up pretty fast. You know, like those guys, in theory grow on trees. We had some guy named Craig Reynolds run for 100 yards for the Lions this past weekend. Defensively, you know, you see it's funny, I came next comes back. He's He's all over the field just absolutely run over it. Because dudes who look like a king Hicks don't just grow on trees, right? Same thing with a row, Quan Smith, right? You don't just walk down and go to the Walmart and see a guy who looks like that, who has those physical characteristics. defensive backs, kind of grow on trees, right? What are the characteristics of a defensive back, right, like, well, they don't have to be particularly tall. I mean, ideally, they're fast, but we're not talking like TrackSTar like top 1% of the universe type fast. And everybody talks about anybody anyway, even a good secondary, right? Like, what's the cliche? Well, you know, blah, blah, blah, can't cover blah, blah, blah for five seconds, right? Like the defense the front seven has to get to the quarterback. They have to press your quarterback because No, no quarterback can cover you know, Justin Jefferson for five seconds. Well, no quarterback can cover Justin Jefferson for five seconds. Like, why do they matter all that much? Right? Like if a lot of damage is happening with the front seven like I can kind of put a bunch of different guys back there. And if the pressure is on They're going to be able to do enough, these guys aren't off the street necessarily, right? They're in practice squads all over the league. Because these guys also play special teams, these guys have this type of characteristic, right? And in watch college football, like it's just loaded with, like 510 guys who have a decent amount of speed, right? You don't need any particular ball skills, you don't have to have good hands, because you're not you're, you know, it's nice if you catch the occasional pass, you know, for an interception, but it's not required by any means, right? So it's a very replaceable position. So it's different if it's a D line and O line, right? Obviously, a quarterback, etc. When we're talking about defensive backs. It's very replaceable, you can find guys, and if you have a scheme, and if you have guys up front that can compensate for it. It's not that big of a deal. So again, just another one long line of games that you do everything right in in the NFL, and for some reason, somehow, you just don't end up cashing. But everybody who was on the bears last night, definitely deserved better.

Sheldon: 15:59

Yeah, it was I tweeted out last night, it was art by the Chicago Bears just figuring out silver ways to not score points,

Matt: 16:08

like right down to the last one, right down. Just like everything about the last play from like the referee, not getting the call correct on the field, and that needing to be served just because quickly, again,

Sheldon: 16:19

he gets a call right on the field, I bet you they go for right they kick the field goal, like you know, right away.

Matt: 16:26

It's not in there. It's it's in the rulebook like it would they were never going to. And I'll say like, because I would get I was on, I was on plus seven. So for all of those times down the field prior to that, and even obviously, with like 10 seconds to go where they sort of read that check down, I'm like, Oh, what are you doing, and then there was one second left. Soon as he stepped out of bounds with one second left, like I knew I was done, because I knew even with a touchdown, that they weren't going to be even allowed to go for it. Right? Whether it's like conversion, it's not up to the coaches, anyone

Sheldon: 16:57

got to rectify that. If you're an if you're the NFL, and there are billions of dollars being gambled on your sport, and the point spread is involved in the game. You can't end a game like that. And I'm not just saying that as somebody who like and for the record, like I like I bet a lot of money on set games. So it's not about like that. I'm being serious. Oh, yeah.

Matt: 17:21

Chiefs for me, either. As far as,

Sheldon: 17:23

like, Yeah, I'm just saying fundamentally, if millions of dollars is switching hands on a play, like you can't just end the game like that, if the point spread is involved. And I know there can't be that, like, there's no one buzzing down to the ref being like, hey, the point spread is blah, blah, we got to have the final play. I'm just saying you can't end the game like that without kicking the The Extra Point. That's my opinion,

Matt: 17:50

they would make the case and listen, there's a possibility your that you might be right, like down the road, if betting becomes so important to them, which I mean, listen, it's driven the sport again,

Sheldon: 17:59

we didn't even mention that on the broadcast. They didn't even mention anything of it. Well, they kind of did leave

Matt: 18:05

my thinking might have said the rule base, you know, back to Minnesota miracle, but I mean, at that point, like people are like, freaking out. So I mean, you know, there's a lot going on. I mean, the thing is, like, if, if we're sort of talking about it from like a betting standpoint, and they re insert that rule. And then listen, there's zero seconds left on the clock, right? Like the bears could just come out, run a two point conversion play, and the Vikings aren't going to get in their way, right? Like they're not going to arrest it. And then they run in some BS like thing where nobody's even trying, which I'm pretty sure is a type of thing that has happened before, when that didn't exist, right. Like people are gonna say the same thing. Those who are on the bike, I'm going to be like, Well, they didn't even try that two point, you know, on that two point conversion with no time left. And it's like, well, why one day, but like, that's, you know, Bs, right? And it's like, it's just optically a little bit better to just be like zero seconds left in the game doesn't really matter. It doesn't matter at all when it comes to the result of the game. Let's just wrap it up. Because again, I mean, they can always hide under like player safety, right? And like, we don't play you don't have an extra play. And it's like, come on player safety, like nonsense or whatever. So yeah,

Sheldon: 19:13

vs non glare. Yeah. Speaking of BS, nonsense, the Raiders. Or the browns, I don't know, whichever, whichever way you want to go with that really? Um, so that was the other Monday night or as we had a doubleheader of Monday nighters which a Lucky us. The Raiders win this game on a last second field goal for the wind 16 to 14. They don't cover the spread. We were on the Browns but this was very interesting because the line moved a bunch of times over the weekend and correct me if I'm wrong. Do I have this correct? Because the way that I saw you are obviously more plugged in than I am. But when I saw when we talked on Friday, it was Raiders minus three. When it was announced that then the game was moved from Saturday to Monday, it flipped to Browns minus three, because I'm assuming they thought maybe one of the quarterbacks would then be eligible to play, or one of the first two Browns quarterbacks would be eligible to play. But they still don't make it out of protocol. So then the line flipped back to Raiders minus three. Do I have that crap?

Matt: 20:21

Yeah. I mean, it was it was a wild ride all week. Right? Yeah. And you're just referencing back on Friday? Because I, you know, we talked on Friday on the podcast about how, on Thursday, I almost submitted Browns plus one in in the big contest. And just before I was about to hit send, that's when the case Keenum news came out, right. And so, yeah, we talked about ratings and stuff like that, and rating teams and sort of figuring out what the point spreads should be before the point spreads are announced. And before they're open, and all that sort of thing. Like this is kind of this perfect thing where it's like the Raiders are just a static existence, right? Where it's like, Yeah, nobody thought Darren Waller was going to be in so obviously, we're not going to rate the Raiders to the top end of their range for whatever that ends up, you know, whatever that is, right. That's probably league average or not even that, right, that's probably close to 50 in our sort of rating system. And we just sort of they just sort of sit there as this like 45 right out of 100. Meanwhile, like the Browns full full group, were minus six on Monday, and I even thought that was a little bit low because have Browns rate a little bit higher than that. And then yeah, you watch it toggle back and forth. And it's like however many players are out. That's how far back we move the Browns from a rating standpoint. Right. And so, yeah, we get to see okay, no Keenum no Mayfield and then obviously jayven Clowney like we talked about the idea that like, Well, if the defensive line isn't banged, you know, isn't hit with any COVID Like, we're okay here. And then sure enough, it was like Friday, Saturday, he gets popped as well. And so you just watch it, and you go, okay, and it's going further and further and further away. And it ends up being Raiders minus three. And if you're using a rating system, you're just sort of starting to, you know, see a bottom out and I, you know, this is sort of deep into the weeds here. But my sort of color coordinated rating system like sort of has the browns, literally the color brown between, say 40, and like 75, right, where it's like the worst it's ever going to get for the browns and the 40. And the best it's ever going to really get for the browns and 75 Unless they prove me wrong by just being being consistently Awesome. Well, that clearly hasn't been the case this season. So no worries on that standpoint. And as I'm sort of playing around with the numbers on how we get to write and sort of again, retrofit type thing, how do we get to a number where Browns plus three makes sense? Well, the rating for the Browns again, knowing that we have this pretty constant number when it comes to the Raiders, the rating for the browns, like blows right through the color coordinated system and goes south of 4035. Yeah, down into like the 30s. And so then you just it's just a matter of sitting there going like, okay for the Browns to be at home. Three point underdogs to a Raiders team we have pretty firmly understood to be in the mid 40s. The Browns have to be a you know have to this version of the Browns have to be a 30 out of 100 type of a team. Can we know right with yours, Johnson Nick Chubb, obviously. And then they end up getting Wyatt teller back, we talked about how it'd be nice to get one guy back on the offensive line, at least somebody to run behind. In a lot of cases, somebody who can do a decent job of pulling to the left side of the right side, etc, etc. And they get him back. But that doesn't do anything to the point spread, right? Like that doesn't change anything to the public perception of that game. But it changes how we rate the Raiders. And so at that point was, excuse me, the browns. And so we sit there we go, okay, this, they can't be 30 I'm willing to bet that the Browns aren't a 30. Tonight, at home with at least a couple of starters on their team, I'm willing to make that bet. And so that's what has you land on the plus three there for the browns. And again, obviously we waited we waited, we waited to see who was going to be available and how that was going to affect the line. And it just didn't compensate enough. Now again, there's a bunch of different ways where the Raiders end up winning and covering the game with 14 points in the same way that cousins and the Vikings ended up doing with 17 points later on, right but it's just a matter of how bad are the bears gonna possibly be with their secondary guys out is the rating appropriate? And it's the same deal it blew right through the color barrier, if you will, on my on my on my chart. And it's like, oh, they're now in the deep recesses of Excel that doesn't that's not even covered by any sort of color. And it's like, oh, they can't be that bad. They cannot be that bad. Now again, the bears go and turn the ball over a billion times. And so I guess they could be that bad. But, you know, again, that's Just a fundamental numbers play when all of this chaos is happening, right? And you just go, you know, anybody can sort of say, well, I think overvalued, undervalued, you know, over exaggerated change in the pointspread. At least it's right there black and white for me where I can see, okay, like the requirement for the Raiders to be minus three here is a Browns team that is playing at like a Texan style level here. And I just wasn't ready to believe that. And so that's what brought me on to the browns. And again, luckily that ended up working out because that was a game that depending on when you bet it and again, once they move the date of that game, a lot of bets get refunded. So it wasn't as crazy as you probably got bailed out if you had Browns minus six from last Monday, which again, I there's a world in which I could have done that, because I think that number is short if the Browns are full strength, and that gets wiped out in the people who bet like Raiders plus 200. That bet gets wiped out. And you know, again, unless your sports book is is just letting things fly when it comes to date changes and stuff. So it ended up being a little bit tighter by the time that game got rescheduled with again minus three to plus three, but like that's a pretty big move as well. So yeah, just recognizing where these moves are over exaggerations, and just betting against that, unfortunately, went one in one yesterday, but it absolutely should have been to hell, let's be honest.

Sheldon: 26:14

Yeah, I mean, and that's one of those where I look at that at the end of the night and you're just like, alright, football, right? There is room for that. There's, again, I'm speaking of though, speaking of said football, I'm more interested in games, as you mentioned, a winning week in terms of pigs handed out on said podcast, but a very funny game, in terms of the ending at least. Yeah, it was the Packers and the Ravens. Now I'm pretty sure the Packers were the last time we talked on Friday. The Packers were five and a half point favorites against the Ravens. Now, I think I don't think Lamar was even listed as being officially out yet at that point, either. Right? So then once that happened, the line obviously moves up. Either way, packers win 31 to 30. But we're talking about hardball going for two yet again. And to me, I don't even know why this is a discussion because your quarterback is Huntly you made a crazy run to come back to get the touchdown late. This is your best chance to what what's your favorite line? Try and win the game. Which is what he's trying to do. Right? Yeah, you're

Matt: 27:23

allowed to try it? Yeah.

Sheldon: 27:24

Yeah, like, hey, let's tie it up. So we could maybe with a coin toss, and maybe hope that Aaron Rodgers doesn't score a touchdown first. And maybe then Huntley is like, no, go for the win. But are you still annoyed at the people who are arguing the go for two as opposed to are you just like, let them be let them have their own fun.

Matt: 27:47

I mean, honestly, like, it's funny, right? Because, like part of what I do, and why I do this is to educate people as we get into this universe where, you know, sports betting is and the landscape right, and it's getting deeper deeper into it, right. And that's why I get my my sort of dander up, if you will, when I see bad sports betting content, I get my dander up when I see people just taking kind of a, let's just call it a dumb approach to sports, right? Like there's so much information out there, it is easily digestible, it takes a minute, it takes two minutes to just understand some stuff. And again, the last people that I'm sort of rattled at necessarily are the, you know, masses of just fans or sort of NFL enthusiasts who just refuse to sort of understand it. Right? I get more worked up with the people who are paid to disseminate football information who still don't understand this sort of thing, right? Like we talked about the CBS like morning, halftime crew just being disaster last week, right? Like, those are the ones, the boomers of the world, right. And so it's just like, you know, we've talked about your boy book. And so like, those are the ones that I get really sort of upset about, because it's like, you're making it harder for me, and for all of us to get better at this, right and to be able to predict results of what coaches are going to do. Because there's going to be a point 510, hopefully, sooner than that years from now, where it's just going to be assumed that you're going to make some of these decisions. But it isn't going to be somebody just using the word analytics as if it's this, like somebody cursed or something, right? Like, it's just, they're just the fear is going to be removed eventually, right. But as long as we have people sort of pushing back against that, it's just this uphill battle. That's going to be really frustrating. Now, I then remind myself that we are betting into markets against people who don't understand this sort of thing. And that is to our advantage, right? If people are willing to sort of put have their head in the sand, they're going to make bets that are similarly stupid, if you will. Yeah. And so I'm totally fine with all of that. So I'm not going to get too worked up about that. But here's the irony to this game. And by the way, you mentioned Lamar Jackson thing. Again, another hilarious line where it was like we're half in we're half out because this game is you know, if Lamar Jackson's healthy and everything's Fine, right? Like the ravens are gonna be in a two and a half point underdog, right? Like, you might end up getting a full three with the Ravens if you wanted with a healthy Lamar Jackson, maybe a couple other guys who obviously were on the COVID list. But it's five, five and a half all week, right? Which is obviously the one step in one step out number, because once it gets, it goes, yeah, it goes up to nine and a half. And then there was a 10 available. And that's where I jumped in on the 10. I wasn't dying about this game, but if you're gonna give me 10, right, I was like, what, what is happening here, right, like this is craziness. And so again, it's the same thing over and over. And you know, that game was a 14 point game. And that's the fundamental crux of all of this is that games a 14 point game. So even if you had taken the 10, as hard and as sort of tightly played as that game was for much of that game, you were still sort of on the outside looking in, right. And it just so happened that the Ravens again, same spot as they were with the as the bears were, the Ravens just did a better job of coming through the back door on that plus 10, do they need to get a second touchdown, not for my purposes, but for some people's purposes out there, right, that was a meaningful score. And once we were even going to go to overtime, again, less, you had taken the five and that was available earlier in the week, then they sort of resolved from a point spread standpoint was settled. So I didn't really care what happened on that last play. But again, the irony, the point of all of this is to set the analytic strategy in that game, as you know, by now is that when you're down 14, and you score a touchdown, to be down eight, that's when you go for two, right? That is the analytically correct move to go for two, when you're down eight, to try to make it a six point game. So that that last touchdown is just an extra point from Justin Tucker, away from taking the lead in that game, they say taking the lead, not winning that game, because that's the other thing lost in all of this, right. So fundamentally, if we were doing it by the analytics book, the two point conversion would have been attempted already. So John Harbaugh in that instance, is not doing the analytically correct thing, because it already passed him by he already missed that opportunity to do the analytically correct thing, something that I believe he has done before. So it's not that he's unfamiliar with it. So I couldn't tell you why he didn't do it. I'm also you know, when whether it's Staley not going for the two point conversion on Thursday, or some of these other guys that are really aggressive. We even though again, if it's just analytics, you're not being aggressive, you are literally playing to the percentages, right? That in this case, Harbaugh was being aggressive, because he wasn't playing to the percentages, necessarily. And here's why. When you go for two, right, there's all the numbers. And listen, if you listen to this podcast for five seconds in the past, you know that we have a healthy respect for the numbers here. But for all the numbers that swirl around when it comes to a two point conversion, etc, etc. What isn't necessarily quantifiable, yet, and maybe it becomes that way, eventually, if we get enough of these sample sizes, is what's the urgency from the Packers with that last 42 seconds, something along those lines? And that last 40 some odd seconds, what's their urgency to score? If the game is tied, relative to if they are down one, right? The difference there, I think has to be taken into account. Now people say, Well, they're still gonna try to score like Roger is still gonna try to score. But if you're down one, they're slinging around, it's different, you're gonna sling around pretty aggressively if a ball gets picked off on your first or second throw, or if you get stripped, sacked, or something along those lines, it's not that big of a deal, because you were going to lose anyway, down one. But if it's tied, right, you don't have that same urgency level. And so the idea that the Packers have the same probability to go down the field and kick a field goal, when they have that same level of urgency doesn't really add up to me. Right? And so, that's where you have to sort of factor in okay, like, it's, you know, again, we always talked about two point conversion being a 5050 problem, you know, probability, you've got the 5050 probability and it isn't win lose. It's either lose now, or take a lead and give Aaron Rodgers motivation, extra motivation, extra urgency to get down the field to try a couple extra throws to try that sort of thing. Right, which you say, Okay, great. Well, he's gonna try some throws like that's a chance for him to make a bad one or to again, get strip sacked. But again, you already had the league, right? Like it would just be sort of confirming the lead that you already had. So you have to factor that in. So that's why I said I'm like I don't I didn't love going for it. If you weren't going to go for it on the first touchdown. I didn't love going for it on the second touchdown because you're you're giving Aaron Rodgers urgency in that next drive. Right, whereas, okay, if we're gonna just do this, let's just go to overtime and then literally maybe put it up to a coin flip, right where at that point, you are now 5050. Because when you're going to point conversion and Aaron Rodgers drive, that's a 50% probability, plus whatever percentage you want to assign to Aaron Rodgers getting that field goal, you know, again, Aaron Rodgers, we always just assume the most positive, you know, result, he is, of course, going to drive down the field, like, god forbid he'd ever make a mistake. And so that's the difference in all of this. And so the funny thing is, is like, people are railing on Harbaugh, because Oh, analytics lost him another game. And again, first and foremost, they're saying this, because he did it against the Steelers, as if they were going to win the game if that game went to overtime, right? Like, again, the assumption no one's having has more faith in a team doing something when their coach doesn't allow them to do that thing, right? Like you and I have a history of talking about the the Packers Bucs game from last season, where they kick the field goal or whatever, instead of letting Aaron Rodgers on fourth and seven or fourth and goal from the seven, like, Oh, you got to like it's just on the assumption that Aaron Rodgers is going to be successful, right? It's like that will go that kick decision will go down in history as quote unquote dumb because everyone's assumed that Aaron Rodgers was going to convert a fourth and seven right like, that's just how we our minds work, evidently, right. In the same way people are gonna give fuel goals to the Chargers automatically even though we watch the Chargers Miss field goals all the time. So again, all of that is to say that wasn't the analytical the correct decision, but he's getting sort of blamed for using and looks like he didn't. And then we see there's an audio clip going around where Harbaugh even before the drive is walking around to his guys, I don't know if you've heard this, like miked up thing. But he's going around asking guys, hey, if we score a touchdown on this drive, do you guys want to go for two? Like you want to try to win it here, and he's incorrect by saying win it here. But he's sort of selling it to his players. And whether he knows he's miked up or not? I don't know. But once you do that, like, what are the players gonna say, we've talked about this before? Are they going to say like, Nah, man, let's play Oh, I don't think we can get this like no court like they're going to say yes, right. And I often rail on coaches, when they send kickers out to try 55 yarders on fourth and two, because if you go for it on fourth and two, and it doesn't work, the players don't get blamed. The coach gets blamed for going for it on fourth and to IE, Brandon Staley. But if you shoot the kicker out there to try to make a kick that other kickers have made historically in the past, not at a particularly high percentage, by the way, but they have made it when the kicker misses it. It's a idiot kicker, right? Like kicker just missed that kick. You know, Coach did everything right? Nobody blames the coach for the kick that gets missed. They blame the kicker. So in this case, Harbaugh is just putting his players out there, going alright, you guys make the decision. I might get beat up about this for 24 hours, but the mic is going to pick up that I asked you guys, if you wanted to do this right now he has this sort of, you know, deniability to like Yeah, I mean, I know, I didn't know but like, I asked my gods, and I'm gonna trust my guys, right. And it's like, No man, like analytical, you should have done that on the previous touchdown. And that's the point everybody's missing here. As they beat up Harbaugh for using analytics when he didn't even do that. This was that gamble, right. Like this was like you said, that aggressiveness. And I don't hate him for doing it. Because I like the aggressive. I know what you're so let's not just call it analytics, just because the guy went for it. That's not it. Right? That's not what analytics

Sheldon: 38:36

are. That's the labels, right? And you know, sometimes even in relationships, labels can become problems, right. And I think that's what happens a lot here as well with analytics. And just because people are dug in on their sides, regardless of what side you're on. And so it almost becomes either a bad word, or like, you're not a part of the cool crowd. It's one or the other. When really I just think, and as I said, right, I never said anything about analytics. I just said I thought Harbaugh in that moment is thinking, Oh, this might be my best chance to win this game with Huntley. Right with my backup QB against Aaron Rodgers, like in that like one play. And I understand what you're saying. And I understand the math and all that. I'm just saying, I don't think he's even thinking of it in that sense, right? Yeah. He's you're saying you're right, in this moment, one play to try and win. So and

Matt: 39:27

he was great. And it needs to be needs to be mentioned, right? We're not talking to Mike Glennon, right. We're not talking about some of these other backup quarterbacks, right? And like, surprise, surprise, a well run organization has a quarterback who again, fits a lot of the style with which they play, right. Like they're not running Joe Flacco out there. If Lamar Jackson gets hurt, right, like they can learn all of the same plays by and large, and he's a second year guy who had some success at Utah like this isn't a guy off the street. We always refer to our guy the newt. Ben DiNucci. It's like this isn't that situation, right? We don't have

Sheldon: 40:00

I forgot random was a moment in time.

Matt: 40:04

That's right. Right. Like this is a quality backup who, you know, again, if he plays a bunch of games here is probably going to be sought after here in the market and it was contract situation is but like, I get it I would like and that's why I don't disagree with it I just saying I was no Linux and the thing that I believe is the label and just the idea that like, oh, stupid hard on his analytics, it's like, well, no, if you want to be stupid, horrible, just call him stupid for being over aggressive. And then that's it. That's a debate that people can have. But you and I are going to like that decision, not because it was analytically correct. We're gonna like that decision because it was aggressive. And it was trusting his players and all of those sort of old school type of things, right, like the old school crowd should have liked that decision a little bit more than the analytical crowd. And that again, that's not how this is getting sort of portrayed.

Sheldon: 40:51

For sure, for sure. I'm tough go at it for Mr. Tom Brady, who struggled again against the New Orleans Saints. We talked about it on Friday, how somehow, someway, the Saints just always play well against the bucks. And we were looking at that spread and thinking it was 11 points. That's a lot of points, and went up they get neither team scored 11 points. It was

Matt: 41:24

a total of 11 and a half,

Sheldon: 41:26

which is absolutely amazing. But Tom Brady gets shutout and we're gonna see the highlights over and over again of him tossing the iPad or whatever the playbook, whichever brand it is, you're gonna see him cursing at the sidelines of the saints. But this is what I don't understand. Okay, like, if we remember correctly, all of these games, like it's very, like that's not a deep dive. That's not like anything crazy. How does that spread end up being at 11 and a half and moving up? And I know the injuries played a factor right? In games injuries definitely did play a factor for the Bucs for sure. But, I mean, they weren't gonna cover I don't think they were gonna, they might have won the game, you could give it unto me. Maybe they win the game, if all those guys don't get hurt, but I don't think they come close to covering.

Matt: 42:17

No, no, I don't think so either. Right. Like I think pretty early on, I'd say through one quarter you're like, okay, like, this is this is the game that, you know, by the way, this is the game that it's been right. Every other Yeah. And the two teams met, right. And so I, you know, talked about it, you know, on on what the piece for the score that I wrote for this game, and just online like just the idea that like, it's like if you have this file cabinet of, you know, handicaps, right like for these different matchups and you just sort of like Dewey Decimal System, you look up right saints, bucks, okay. Nobody knows what to do. Right? That's okay, you Google saints, Buccaneers handicap, and then you hit print two printers still exist. You know, and you just sort of print out the file of like these two, these two teams matching up, you just go, okay, yeah, alright, like saints own them, you know, defensively, relatively speaking. And you know, like, blah, blah, blah. It's like you didn't I didn't have to do any work when it came to finding this bet. Right. I had done the work back in week eight, when we correctly predicted that the saints would beat the Buccaneers back in that first matchup back in the old days and Jameis. Winston was rolling around, right. And so we talked about the idea of this, this, you know, the the switch of this point spread right where it was, you know, four and a half in New Orleans back in week eight. And now it's 11 and a half. And that's a seven point swing, right, which would indicate a three and a half point, home field advantage for both teams. Neither of these teams have a three and a half point home field advantage. I'm here to tell you that right now. And so that was an over just when you said like, Well, why is that? Well, it's because everybody's perception. They don't have a functional passing quarterback. And the Buccaneers run defense is some scary thing. But the reality is that run defense hasn't been very good for the bucks over the last four or five or six weeks. Right? They have gotten gash. Now, they didn't necessarily get gashed in this game, either. There was, you know, again, there was a couple of good throws from Taysom. Hill, which again, is all you need, when your defense is owning the other team. Right? And so how fallen Yeah, and how do you get to 12 1314 point victory if your offense can't score, the way that it's, you know, grown accustomed to so, you know, again, there's not that much more to say about it other than like, yes, if you were on the saints and injuries started to pile up for the Buccaneers, you start feeling a lot better, obviously about your chances to cover that game. And even the wind right until they get that third field goal. It just felt like okay, the bucks you're gonna have one touchdown drive here at some point, right. But again, that just goes to show any given Sunday, all that sort of thing. So I mean, yeah, did we have under 11 and a half, no, but we had the plus 11 and a half in that game and won it relatively comfortably because all we had to do was just go back, find the work that we had done before. And just use that to be able to get a pretty easy victory, which is nice considering how you know how well we handicap some of these games like the Bears game last night. And it doesn't work out for a bunch of crazy reasons. It's nice to have one that was just pretty basic cut and dry type of a game.

Sheldon: 45:28

For sure. One thing I like to say trusting the reads right, trusting the reads. Yeah, definitely along those exact same lines. The Detroit Lions, as on Friday, it was 12 and a half point underdogs, but I'm pretty sure it went up. They win outright against the Arizona Cardinals 30 to 12. And, you know, the covers one thing, I can say that, hey, we talked about it last week, we talked about yeah, definitely like the lions to cover here. Who is Arizona or so trying to figure that out? I didn't have the lions winning convincingly in this game. But here we are. And I mean, is this a sign of, you know, just, we really don't know much about the cards, like we're finding out more and more about the cards as time goes along. And they were just overrated because a lot of moving pieces they're missing. Obviously. DeAndre Hunter knows a lot more than then we might have given credit to beforehand, but outright win for the Lions. Wow, man can Yeah.

Matt: 46:37

And shout out to the lions. By the way. I've referenced it before my over one and a half wins for the Detroit Lions that I made before they played the Steelers back when they tie the Steelers my end season over one and a half cashes with the SEC. For the line. That can be only in season win total bet that I made all season long. The only win total bet I think I made all season long cashes with the lions over one and a half. absolutely absurd. Honestly, when it comes to the Cardinals and sort of like what's going on with this team, like, I just think it's small sample size. And and that's what we talked about with regards to, you know, like them, obviously, the Colt McCoy stuff and coming in playing really well and also playing really badly. And that same, you know, entity, right? Like, people love the Cardinals because they're just one of those teams. They're like the Chargers versus like, it's kind of really fun when like those teams are good. I don't know why necessarily that isn't like a West Coast type of thing. Or what but like, we want those teams to be really good. And we want the spectacular. The Justin Herbert throws the Kyler Murray runs the DeAndre Hopkins catches, we want that to translate into greatness on the field. Because when it does, it's spectacular to watch, when it's just kind of two or three plays a game. And then everything else is just kind of okay. That's kind of bums us out a little bit, right. And it all but it also creates a little bit of value fading that team and so when we look at the whole picture here with the Cardinals, again, we've talked about it, we go through it, we go okay, first 40 Niners game, you know, early season against the Vikings, early season again, you know, against a couple of other teams where it's like, okay, yeah, they won, but they didn't necessarily cover at home. And then, you know, you'll get the 40 Niners right small sample size early on in the season like you and I already, you know, Kyle Shanahan like this, ain't it like if the 40 Niners played the Cardinals right now? How interesting would that game be? How interesting would that sort of spread be? How different would that point be relative to what it was in the past? And just the general perception of how to bet that game? If that game existed? Who knows that game might exist come playoff time? And are you going to bet the Cardinals in that game? I can tell you, we haven't even seen the points, right. But I am probably not going to do that right. And so all of this just comes back to ratings right now, for the first 12 some odd weeks of the season, I'd post my ratings over at the score and sort of write about how they change on a week to week basis. And then after about 12 weeks or so they just sort of exist, right? Like the last ratings are probably going to be ones that we keep throughout the rest of the season. And maybe things get adjusted because of injuries and that sort of thing. But we don't really need to talk about that on a week to week basis from a big picture standpoint. And so my point is is like I never had the Cardinals rated number one because again, I need these ratings for how I'm going to bet a team going forward. And if I don't think that this team is something that I want to be backing going forward against the other high quality teams in the league, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. You know, listen, we've been trying to find other quality teams and some teams have desired not to, you know, fill that role. The bills have been up and down. The Chiefs have been up and down, etc. But like I was never ready to put the Cardinals atop that rating. because I didn't want to be betting the Cardinals going forward, because there just was never going to be value on them because I didn't see early on in the season. Why I should just consider this team, the number one team in the league. And so I didn't. And I, you know, was midseason sort of pat ourselves on the back here, but like they are clearly not the best team in the league. And like maybe they end up you know, home game, first round division championship, that sort of thing. Like that loss to the Rams last week is going to be problematic. And obviously, losing to the lions wasn't something that was in the wind probabilities, when it came to who's going to win this division. So gotta be interesting down the stretch here, they got a coin flip game coming up here on Christmas against the Colts, that's going to be incredibly interesting, and might actually garner a bet on the Cardinals because maybe things have flipped for both of those teams, right? The Colts are really riding high in the public perception zone and the Cardinals aren't. So again, I think it's just small sample size when you have seasons that you know, feel like they're really long but only have 12 games in them, you know, through what the end of November early December. Like that's the kind of thing that's going to happen. We're going to overrate and underrate teams based on small sample size.

Sheldon: 51:13

Variance. Interesting, very interesting. I thought at one point there you're going to say uh, when wasn't in the cards?

Matt: 51:19

Oh, as much as they like a good pun, you know, I need to probably sit down and think about five minutes for nothing that rudimentary sadly.

Sheldon: 51:31

As we move on, though, to the another NFC West squad that I'm quite familiar with San Francisco 40, Niners. They were big boy favorites against the Falcons, and I was very easily taking the Falcons plus the points, and then the game kicks up. And the reminder is just this simple. The Niners are a different team, when Kiddle and debo are both healthy. Yeah, it's just really as simple as that. I mean, Jimmy G is gonna do what Jimmy G does he just throwing it up. But the ability of those dudes with the Yaks yards just adds a whole different dimension. They're just running. They're just running crossing patterns, or just like wide receivers, screens, just taking them like mad yards after the catch. So Jimmy G is going to Jimmy g. the running game by committee is going to be the running game by committee would have Kiddle and debo are healthy. I mean, they're gonna look pretty good against most teams in the NFL. Do I think they can make a run in the playoffs? No.

Matt: 52:33

But okay.

Sheldon: 52:34

But they're pretty good team.

Matt: 52:37

Yeah, so that's interesting, like from a pointspread standpoint, right? Like, I mean, you watched that game felt like the Falcons probably should have at least covered in that game. Right. So hanging around found it in the red zone three times and you get zero points out of it. Obviously wasn't I'll say it right now mega shenanigans at the start of that game when they they call back the quarter. Oh, Patterson, touchdown. Yeah. Right. And now of course, listen, you're at the one foot line, like score the touchdown on the next play, or the play after that, or the play after that, right but like, it never should have come to that and it sort of had these it had a head chargers chiefs vibes, in a lot of ways where you have special teams play at the start of the game, right? And obviously the Chargers case it was you know, Andre Roberts breaking breaking free, he trips up he doesn't get into the end zone and even that should have been the first signal that some janky stuff was going to happen in the game. Well you know, for Niners was hasty or something like that. I think he takes the ball in the face. Falcons recover the you know, the the muffed kick if you will, and then can't convert and end up getting zero points and the other team ends up you know, getting the ball back in bad field position right like it all had the same kind of bugs there's a bunch of different times throughout the rest of the game to where the Falcons should have and could have covered the game and that's the game of the week where we would be talking about man like that every opportunity to cover how did they not except for the bears came around and somehow one up them or like three up to them when it came to visits to the red zone. So yeah, you know interesting interesting take on your part on that on the fact that you don't necessarily think that this team is sort of built for the playoffs because I mean everything comes down to matchups and like it sort of feels a little built for the playoffs right Brandon i You guy that we were waiting on a lot of fantasy football players out there waiting on Brandon I you for a long time. And like you mentioned obviously debo who I can't like I'm ready to go you know speaking of like old school attitudes when it comes to stuff I'm ready to start talking debo Samuel MVP talk out here right like I just I again like it's I know it's like an old school thing. And like oh, it's got to be a quarterback it's got to be a quarterback but we've talked all season about like which quarterback is going to take it here. And like as much it was like Tom Brady's now the odds on favorite he just got shut out at home. Right? And I understand like debo doesn't get the blame when bad stuff like that. that happens, but like what else do you need to see? Right like when this guy's not in the lineup? It's a much different team and same thing for kiddo and I suppose you know, now we have to start talking Well, Kato is also most valuable to that team as well and I get that but like, the numbers add up like Samuel was leading the league or second in the league in receiving yards until they're like yeah, man, we actually need you to play some running back here. Things are getting pretty grim from a running back position standpoint. He's like yeah, sure. And now they have this play, you know, that runs off the left side that scores a touchdown every single time and it's like what else do you want from Roma guy here so I don't know if that gains traction down the down the stretch here I you know, I've made jokes on on the Twitter discord, Twitter spaces that I that we do, haven't been able to do last couple of weeks. But we've been able to do previous to that about sort of the concept of chipper jonesing your way to an MVP. There's a season and a way back 15 years ago where Chipper Jones just got crazy hot in September for the Atlanta Braves hitting all these home runs and came out of nowhere and like just won the MVP because it was like man, he single handedly just dragged the team to the playoffs. Debo Samuel right now is out here Chipper Jones in this 40 Niners team they're going to win the division but they're going to make the playoffs here and they're going to be problematic because I don't think this is a team that has to be at home for success in the playoffs. That part they just need they just need Jimmy G to not turn the ball over which again depending on the matchup is either more likely or less likely to happen but we'll see they could be very live underdogs come this playoff run, which I'm I'm starting to get excited about the concept of playoff football here as we still have three, three weeks left in the regular season.

Sheldon: 56:44

A couple of things though, the disrespect of not even considering Jimmy G for NVP. I couldn't even get that out with a straight face. But the one thing I do find very interesting too as watching this Niners team and maybe it's kind of make me feel some type of way. But if they are on the brink of making a run it makes you wonder like what if they didn't make the trade Lance train and just drafted dudes that would have helped the team this season? You know what I mean? It's interesting India, it's a hindsight game and they don't want to really go into that just want to make that point and move on because we've got some stuff coming.

Matt: 57:22

Yeah, I just I mean, but like you're at 40 Niners fan, right like you were all in on them getting a quarterback right. I think you know, everybody else sort of like hey, we need to move on. Right? So it's like that would be one that's mega revisionist when it comes to like, Yeah, nobody fully

Sheldon: 57:35

aware of what I'm doing. Yeah, I'm fully aware of what I'm doing here. Don't get me wrong. Being

Matt: 57:40

like a JC horn would look nice in the defensive backfield. Sure, right. Like if they hadn't traded up and they you know, they're in that spot like, Patrick certeyn would look pretty nice, but I get

Sheldon: 57:53

Sure. Yeah, I'm also looking nice is our Tuesday because we got two NFL games. Looking real nice. Just because we'll take Hey, we'll take any day they want to just give us some NFL games. Sure. Why not? Yeah, here for. So we got some games here and the Seahawks are at the Rams. And before this line was nicely in the Vegas zone at four and a half and now it's up to seven for the Rams at home. I mean, here's the thing to me with this game and this line. The Seahawks. I think they're like Russ, we're counting down the last games of Russell Wilson in Seattle. And I don't know if this is going to go too well. I don't like it at seven because I think that's too many points. But But I need you to talk me out of laying the points just because if it's seven it pushes I wish for seven and a half that I would probably have to take the Seahawks but I don't really want anything to do with the Seahawks here

Matt: 58:59

I listen I like the Seahawks when tyler lockett was going to play in this game. I liked him a lot. I like a lot so full full roster you know both sides I think all things being equal like I have this number of a four and a half Okay, so when the Rams had you know had their issues last week it was you know, dropped the number from seven down to four and a half and so it was the Rams a bunch of COVID issues and I liked the full strength at four and a half than I would like it four and a half right I'd like to see how a half with a messed up rams team right yeah, now it appears and once these guys come back, I'll you know, obviously you never know right by the time we publish this podcast who knows what what could be happening when it comes to this lineup and so you know now I have to you know, take something off of the Seahawks with lock it not being there for Russell Wilson. Does that get me all the way up to seven now? Not really Right, it's probably closer to like a six, six and a half, right? So I'm going to be on the Seahawks in this game, but because it's the same thing as it was with the browns, and the same thing that it was with the bears where the bears are already, you know, I was ready to make them a best bet at like A plus four and a half with all things being equal. The same way here. I mean, quite literally, I was willing to have the Seahawks be a best bet at plus four and a half. If all things were being equal. I can't right now, right? It just has to be a regular bet for me. And what and we're getting seven, which is good, because again, you know, as much as locket and you know, some of these other players are relevant, I suppose. It's the same story. It's the same story as breakevens. packers. Yeah. You don't mean like every other game that we just talked about that has been hit by COVID. You wait, you see how inflated it can possibly get. And then you bet on the team that has the COVID issues at the best possible number, right. And so you can wait and see. And maybe the seven and a half does appear the same way that it did yesterday, but I'll probably just take the seven at like a minus 105. And then just sort of take my chances there. But the problem is with all of the news, and you know, switches and all of this sort of stuff. You can't make any of this stuff really a best bet, right? Like you can't walk into ravens plus, I mean, listen, if it was ravens plus 10. On Friday, it absolutely would have been a best bet by the time Sunday rolls around. It's just like, alright, this is just a regular bet for me. So yeah, this is a regular bet for me plus seven on the Seahawks. I can't trust it any more than that. But again, we're talking about the addiction that is NFL football, right? We watch these games, we watch these referees botch things, and just throw flags and give out 47 yard penalty. You know, pass interference penalties when it's just two guys standing next to each other with some slight hand fighting like we are mega addicted to this league. And so yeah, there's got to be a bet somewhere, right? And Seahawks plus seven is that bet for me tonight.

Sheldon: 1:01:59

Very interesting. Very interesting. I guess it's one of those where I should be trusting the normal rules to removing the teams and looking at just a line of being seven points in the divisional game. Okay, interesting. Interesting. Interesting. Take the points. I'm, I'm going to be honest here. I'm going to lean here on taking the points but hoping, hoping that it's going to get to seven and a half just because that's what I think might possibly happen as we get closer to game time. And people talk themselves into the Rams. The other game, we got the football team at the Philadelphia Eagles, this game was Eagles nine and a half was and now it's down to six and a half. And it's funny because I remember thinking I can't take the eagles to be favored by nine and a half against anybody, even the football team. And now we don't have to worry about that because it's down to six and a half. And even still, I'm kind of thinking okay football team. I think I would need that to funnily enough get back to seven for me to be on the football team I think I think that's what I'm that's what I'm leaning here. I like liking Eagles at a touchdown. But I'm wavering here I'm wavering talk me into which side you're lean in here if there is a lean cuz again

Matt: 1:03:24

COVID That's right no yeah, we there's a lean and we just leaned ourselves you know we fallen over and by the way, like the Seahawks rams thing like all these other things, like the rules are the rules but like doesn't guarantee anything, right? Like there's a bunch of ways the Ravens don't cover that number. There's a bunch of different ways to certainly the bears didn't really would and you're right, they might not have or they might have and all you know all of these things right it's still just the end of the day giving yourself the best chance to win a bet and create the most probability going your way so again, if you get that plus seven and a half whether it was last night or tonight you're creating a little extra wind probability for yourself here right? And so when it comes to water on in and Philadelphia and it's hilarious you're you know, you're you know, you reference them as football team, the football team it's just so stupid. Like just call it like this the name is so dumb that it's just like how we're not laughing every time somebody refers to them as just football team. But can we call them a football team when like none of the players actually professionally play football like we were this close? Or we were at least this past weekend? This close to just 2025 Guys like just dude straight up off of the street right and so whether it ends up being Kyle Allen or Taylor Hi Nikki, and shit like is Taylor if Taylor Hi, Nikki plays is that a good thing for Washington? You know, versus like, you know, comparing those two players from that game against the Cowboys a week or so ago? I don't know. I don't you know, Maura maybe right. Like sometimes Taylor. I think he looks good. And then sometimes he does not. Ah, I'll put it this way. This is eagles are nothing for me here and they do difference here is you're just gonna say like, Well, what about the adjustment, the adjustment? Well, okay, put it this way, this open three and a half, or three and four, three and a half, four, four and a half hard to tell, right? These days, given the fact that things change so quickly, and would have been all about the Eagles, even in that even as a full, you know, full roster on both sides type of thing, because when it comes to COVID positives and having to replace and moving, you know, and so I'm going to refer to the bears here, as I'm not gonna refer to him as a quality organization, but they are sort of on the ledger of like getting it done correctly. But again, all situations are different. Organizationally, I don't trust the Washington football team to handle everything that they've had to handle over the last week, right? I trust the Baltimore Ravens to handle that. I trust the even the Cleveland Browns like at, you know, playing a home game with the system that they have in place as far as being a run heavy run focus team. I even trust the Chicago Bears to do so from at least a talent standpoint, on defense on on defense. And by the way, I also miss trust the Minnesota Vikings to be able to take advantage of issues, right. So like, there's a lot of like, you know, as much as we sort of talked about the rules here, there are some situation by situation, types of variations. Yeah. And you go like, well, Caitlin, but Washington like, what about them gives you sort of any level of trust that you should feel about how they're going to handle it? And that would be fine. If this game was nine and a half again, or if it had bumped up to 1010 and a half, which is maybe where it would or could have gone? That would have me going like, yeah, the rules are the rules. And as much as I don't trust Washington, like that's cool. In this case, like I can not trust Washington, and still get a decent number. Now I was able to grab minus six yesterday minus 115 on the sort of just in case this goes to overtime. And we need some sort of backup plan to get ourselves out of here with a push or something along those lines, since that's mine, yes, and minus six and a half year, like I am fine with that number, anything under seven is still worth it for me with an Eagles team that you know, somehow has avoided all of this sort of thing right and has been able to focus for the last week on what they need to do and if we're talking about teams getting an advantage from the postponements from Saturday, I actually think the Eagles have a pretty good advantage here because Jalen hertz got a couple extra days to get healthy, right? They didn't have to deal with testing and like hoping these guys get back in and like let's buy us some time to just get some players back. Meanwhile, the Eagles just get more prep, more prep, more practice prep, more health, etc, etc. So actually things works out a lot better for the Eagles than it does for Washington. And you're not paying necessarily attacks like you might be paying a couple of points from where it was you know, minus four minus four and a half before all of this happened. That's not going to be enough for me to like be scared away from the Eagles here against an organization here I don't think I don't trust to handle what's happened here. Well at all so yeah, give me the Eagles minus six and a half. I think they win this game relatively comfortable.

Sheldon: 1:08:10

I mean, you are correct in the sense that it will forever be ironic that the football team sucks at football. That's right, like as is pretty interesting. I

Matt: 1:08:20

almost ran out a bunch of guys who don't play football professionally. Like, are we sure like the sorta football team? Can we put that into the mix? At least if they're the sort of football team we could call them the WS ft. And I wouldn't keep wanting to put WTF every time I short form the Washington football team which I think is a common problem out there for everybody involved.

Sheldon: 1:08:41

This is correct and maybe the WF T is more fitting of a name for said organization. But hey, I digress. I digress. Um, before we get to the Sunday night, though, I would just like to give a nice reminder to the people about the DRF sports Sunday scoop e newsletter if you haven't done so already, make sure you sign up for free at drf.com/sports to receive two free weekly newsletters delivered to your email inbox every Friday and Sunday. Both are packed with powerful betting angles you don't want to miss so make sure you sign up for the Sunday scoop e newsletter and check out our guy Scott Grambling weekly six pack in both the NFL and NCAA and of course you know, he also has his in depth game previews, all that more drf.com/sports everything you need in terms of betting angles. We've got you covered but the app for mentioned Thursday nighter involves the app for mentioned San Francisco 40 Niners who are on the road in Tennessee favored by three and a half points. Here we are we're talking Niners as road favorites at over a field goal. I mean, short week. I mean, debo and Here's the thing. Here's my thing here. Yeah, the problem with debo and kiddo, right, they get banged up all the time because they play hard football. Right? You're taking hits. Yeah. Now you're asking them to do that on a short week against the Tennessee Titans team. Now, I'm not saying the Titans are great, obviously not. But if I just go to the rules, let's say quote unquote, the home dogs I mean, in this instance, that's where I'm leaning. I'm leaning on the home dogs and the points but I could just be jaded against my own Niners

Matt: 1:10:35

No, I listen, I think that's I think that's a fair take so a couple different things right. Like yeah, you have the road team on a short week right like that's tough. This isn't a non existent travel thing. This is a pretty extensive travel spot here for the 40 Niners a team that again is getting a lot of credit right now for this little run that they've been on right couple of it wasn't all that dramatic against the Falcons. Right but it's certainly a nice win but the dramatic one before that against the Cincinnati Bengals and obviously the Rams from a couple of weeks prior to that, like they are hot right now. And it's funny, right? Like we talked about like the small sample size that is the NFL because what five games ago maybe? What is the line in this game? Like, isn't it Titans minus three? Right at the very least as the team that we Shanahan's coaching for job? Yeah, like, it's just like, This is what happens, right? You know, we always talk about like hockey or NBA or whatever, like five games is nothing in those leaks, right? Like that is a week and a half. And you wouldn't drastically overreact to a week and a half. And so just because it's spread out over the course of five or six weeks here. Now we see the 40 Niners is three and a half point road favorites here. And that's just too much right. Like I'd love to back the 40 Niners right? I'll put it this way, before the season one of my futures you can go back to the previous show was 40 Niners to win the NFC app plus 600. Like yeah, that's all of a sudden not looking all that bad anymore, because again, I think this team is built for the playoffs. So I like the 40 Niners but we're talking about up over a field goal at this point for a number that my numbers make one and a half for the 40 Niners and that's with bit the market fluctuation right the Titans coming down in the ratings and the 40 Niners coming up and then essentially switching spots are sort of passing each other on the road have my ratings here go in opposite directions all of that factored in still has the 49 There's only about a one and a half point favorite here So anything above three I think needs to be a take on the Titans. Now that's going to be uncomfortable because this Titans team not looking all that great over the left. And you know, Tannahill and all of that sort of thing, right? Like Tannahill is the poor man's Jimmy G is the rich man's Jimmy G. Like, you know, we may never know. Um, but again, the taste, I think can, right like which, like, I don't even really know, right, like Danielle's got Jimmy G vibes are the other way around. I don't really all I know is that we get three and a half points here with the home team on a short week, a team that's like, let's just be honest, right? It's not hard. You don't need an elaborate rating system or even a basic grading system to sort of understand that the 40 Niners are being valued really highly in the marketplace. Now, again, they could meet that valuation. Right. They could be that good. And the Titans could be that quote unquote, bad. It's just one of those spots, right? Whether it was early on the season where the bills came to town to face the Titans, right? It's funny, like there was a part in the season where the bills were six and a half point favorites at the Titans. And then the Titans won that game and won a bunch of more games. And then they became the team that was heavily valued. And then now they're the team that's under threat, like the Titans have been on their own personal roller coaster here as well, that matches the 40 Niners every step of the way for twists and turns. So yeah, I mean, I just think it's a fundamental basic bet here that you have to make your Tennessee plus three and a half going to be uncomfortable in debo Samuel George Kittel are just absolutely running through guys faces out there. But like, that's just that's just where we're at here with the marketplace, where unfortunately, we can't take the 40 Niners here because they're, you know, three and a half point road favorites on a short week. I mean, fundamentally, that's just that's just kind of brutal.

Sheldon: 1:14:15

Woof. Yes, very, very true. Very, very true. As we continue to look ahead, though, there's some other football action taking place. Maybe some college basketball action taking place as well, but I can hope I think I hear some music.

Matt: 1:14:32

I don't know. Sure.

Sheldon: 1:14:34

I didn't know that this was happening, but I feel like I hear the music. Do we have some pics here to wrap things up here in the college world?

Matt: 1:14:43

It's not quite NFL primetime with boom and teach as far as getting people excited about the hurry up offense here from a music standpoint, but here we are. So college football bowl games are five and a robust five and four through the first nine bowl games. Famous Idaho potato bowl here getting kicked off shortly, depending on where you are right now. This one I mean, listen, we're not going to love every single game here. I don't love this game but forgetting Kent State plus three and a half, I'll take that. That being said, if your pool a pool player out there, Wyoming, if you can get them at minus two and a half. I think three is a key number for these two teams. I expect this game to be relatively close. I do understand why Wyoming's favorite. I think three and a half is a little high for a Kent State team who has a high variance level. So who knows right? They could win this game by 21 They could lose this game by 21 The Frisco bowl UTSA and San Diego State. This is one I might just be taking an L on this game I bet UTSA minus two and a half. Well before I knew that sincere McCormick star running back for UTSA was going to opt out of this game to go to the NFL Draft completely understand that from a personal standpoint from him. I don't understand why all of a sudden now just because of that though, this line has flipped to San Diego State minus three. So I'll probably be taking an L here where you guys might be able to take a W because if UTSA is a three point underdog like I would absolutely take that against San Diego State team who still doesn't have the better quarterback in this game like yeah has the better defense and special teams with their all world punter but like three points here for San Diego State just because a running back is not playing like you know how we feel about the replacement level you know concept of running backs here so UTSA in the Roadrunners plus three that you can get if you make that bet today bet that you can't make today right we give up and we take it away here the Armed Forces bowl Missouri and army I grabbed this as my biggest bet of the of this sea of bull season here army minus three bad news is the reason that it's a big bet is because that was a bad number. And this number has gone up to four and a half for army. So again, if you are betting army now understand that you don't have that backup plan of landing on three or four in this game. The one thing as this game continues to go on are sort of the lead up to this game continues to go on. And the number keeps falling. From a total standpoint, I think both teams are going to be able to score on each other here. So over 56 and a half might be something if listen, you don't want to get all into the messy grind that is these this point spread and being really late to the number if you will. Maybe the total is something for you on Wednesday just to be able to play something in that game. Thursday, we've got the Frisco classic not to be confused with the Frisco bowl Frisco it's gonna be New York City by the time some of these bowl games are over, but with the marketing campaign that's going on for Frisco test Texas, North Texas. We've talked about this before right grabbing them as an underdog. This one is holding steady at plus three. I think that's still a play for me, man, North Texas, plus three against Miami of Ohio with the quasi home game there for North Texas. And then finally on Thursday, the Gasper reliable, I don't know what a Gasparilla is. It could be a lizard, it could be a plant. It could be a seasoning. I don't know what the Gasparilla necessarily is or if it even is anything but I do and we've talked about this before I do like you see f here plus the seven was available last time we sort of talked about this again it is down to six and a half. I think this is an interesting game. I think they are live to be a Florida team and I don't understand or I don't think we'll be particularly into this game come Thursday. It's a bigger game for Central Florida and Gus Malzahn then I do think that this is a relevant game in any way shape or form for a Florida team in flux hear as they go through yet another coaching change. So we got sweat five bowl games here in the next three days. We'll be back on Friday for the Friday bowl game, the Christmas Special, the Christmas Eve special, the Hawaii bowl, and everything that's going on after that.

Sheldon: 1:18:52

I love it. My dude always given us the pics always blessing us with the liens angles, the information and education as I always like to say, but of course Mr. Russell, the people always want more, they're always going to ask for no matter how much you give them. People are always going to want. So where can people find you on social media to find out some more information that you might be handing out? Maybe some college hoops Pics or something like that? Where can people find you online?

Matt: 1:19:21

Yeah, and you said maybe some college hoops pics because maybe there might be college hoops pics. Maybe there might be college hoops games out there. Right and at this point, right? They've wiped out a week's worth of NHL hockey. There might be some college hoops that get played there might not be we don't know at this point. We have a couple of interesting games here on the horizon. Xavier and Villanova. I want to mention this a couple of different things here, actually first, before we get into that I should mention last week's Gambit. You'll recall it was sort of a sleepy week. We're like, okay, there's a bunch of teams here that could be on upset alert. And you know, just sort of blindly batting six games. Those games went three and three against the spread. And it took us To the sixth and final game to get a moneyline winner with New Mexico State over Washington state. But we eventually got one as a big underdog, one of these smaller school programs interested, you know, more interested in a pre holiday game with their bigger school brethren there. So all as well, that sort of ended well from last week standpoint. But I mentioned Xavier and Villanova. The beast is handing out forfeits on these COVID games. And so if you're scrolling through your score, you'll see that like last night, there was like, there's a series of two nothing finals in college basketball in the Big East because guys weren't and teams weren't able to play. And so they forfeit and the winning team gets to, and the losing team gets zero and it counts against their record. So we'll be interesting to see sort of what happens with that going forward, as far as, you know, loosening the protocols a little bit, or are we still gonna keep this crazy forfeiture thing going, all of that is to say Xavier and Villanova play. I have Villanova as an eight and a half point favorite in that game. Again, tread lightly out there with who may be in who may be out etc, etc. And then the other nice game because unfortunately, Louisville, and Kentucky got canceled this week, which like is brutal because that's obviously always a fun rivalry. Arizona and Tennessee, not necessarily a rivalry by any means. I don't know. I can't even remember last two times times. These two teams played Arizona is legit. But this game is at Tennessee. I have Tennessee about a three point favorite in this game. But we'll be leaning towards Tennessee in that game. But you mentioned the Twitter space. At m Ross authentic is where you can find me on Twitter. Everything that I write for over at the score gets retweeted through there. The NFL props are a really good example. Saturday afternoon, always 10 props for Sunday, and this past case Saturday night as well. rocking and rolling with those hitting 60% with 10 plays a week and you getting 10 bets just to follow in the Prop game. And by the way, they're also winning like How fun is that? And of course, a bunch of primetime games this week, we'll have an assortment of props and Best Bets along those lines, though, of course, you guys are privy to anything I do when it comes to against the spread type stuff here on the podcast.

Sheldon: 1:22:20

Perfect is always my dude looking forward to catching up down the line and you know, maybe a little la Xmas vibe some some some vibes for the next pot.

Matt: 1:22:30

When we go I'm gonna go Christmas sweater. Can we go ugly Christmas sweater on Friday? Do you have one of those in your in your pocket? Can we get can we get festival on Friday?

Sheldon: 1:22:39

Actually, yeah, I do. That's funny. It's funny. You mentioned that. I'll tell ya. Yes, yes. Friday,

Matt: 1:22:45

festive Friday. Hey, we go. Love it. Okay, thanks for having me, brother. What a great time as always, one at a time.

Sheldon: 1:22:58

If you want to follow me online, you could do so on Instagram at Sheldon Alexander and on Twitter at Shell Alexander like and subscribe to the DRF sports podcast wherever you get your podcasts. And for more. From this brand new project from DRF sports. We just got to make sure if you're not familiar with the letters DRF daily racing form has been around for over 100 years, giving all of the horse racing information, data and analysis. But now we're taking over the entire sports world. So if you want all the coverage on every football game, as well as the NBA, MLB and more head to drf.com/sports. For all the details and insights, as a site has all the data on every game including offensive defensive stats, bending angles, line movements, key injuries, and more. The DRF data is what powers our power trends. If you want to see which trends our analysts have selected, follow us on Instagram and on Twitter. You want access to all of the raw data, go to drf.com/sports. That's where you get the usual game previews. And of course, we go in depth on this podcast. Basically, however you want your betting information. We've got you covered. That's all I got for now. But remember to tune into this DRF sports podcast every Tuesday and Friday. Hey, sometimes if you're lucky, we sprinkle in a little extra episode here and there. But until next time, that's all I got for now. See.

DRF Sports: 1:24:28

Thanks for listening to the DRF sports podcast. Please subscribe rate and review the show. For more sports betting advice go to drf.com backslash sports and follow on Twitter at DRF underscore sports

A Wild Weekend Recap | Episode 33

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