Unknown: 0:01

Welcome to the DRF sports podcast brought to you by DRF. Sports. America's most trusted name in horse racing is now providing sports bettors with exclusive data analytics previews videos and expert picks on all major sports. That smarter and have more fun doing it. It's the DRF sports podcast and now your host, Sheldon Alexander. Ready Set that

Sheldon: 0:28

this is the DRF sports pod Episode 11. Make sure you like and follow wherever you get your podcasts. I'm your host, Sheldon Alexander. A reminder I'm with you twice a week on Tuesdays we recap the week that was and on Fridays. It's the pig spot. And while Do we ever need to recap what just happened in a wild weekend of football. absolutely insane finishes in both the NCAA and the NFL including last night in Baltimore, where the Ravens pulled off an epic comeback in ot win and say my survivor team but I also had the Colts to cover the seven points and they hit and ot just weird lots of stuff going on. Bottom line, I was able to scrape out a winning weekend just barely. And that is what makes this so much fun and why you need to make sure that you're always checking us out at DRF comm slash sports because that's where you can get all of the details and insights including power trends, line movements, team stats, and even more betting angles, including our guy Scott grumblings weekly fix back in both the NFL and NC double A so make sure you check us out drf.com slash sports that's where you need to be every single day for all of the game previews. Plus, we go in depth on this podcast, however you want your betting information. We've got you covered. But as mentioned on today's show, we have so much to discuss, including the bill's dominating chiefs. How good are the Dallas Cowboys and Kickers, kickers and more kickers missing field goals and messing with our point spreads? All that and more. Plus our midweek football picks with my guy Matt Russell. And luckily for you the pod starts right about now. And what a weekend of football it was in both the NCAA and the NFL. So of course I had to bring it back again because we have to break it all down. And there's only one man that I can do this with because sometimes we need these weeks where it's more of a therapy session. So Matt Russell, how you doing? I know I sweated out like just barely 887 in one weekend just sweated that out but like how are you doing?

Matt: 2:50

Yeah you know you make a good point but like you know do you do you have to bring me back like am I really the right answer here. You just do the show by yourself man like that you you killed it. Let's past week not to borrow a phrase. You listen you know what we had built up a giant jar of jelly beans right we talked about all getting all the credit over the course of the first four weeks we're gonna do something on this show that not a lot of other shows do we're talking about losing man like sometimes it doesn't go that great and when so when you start out a season that hot right like there's no golden goose if you're you know listening to this, maybe you're new to the podcast. Maybe you've just been around for this season, you're looking for somebody who has all the answers, who's going to win all the games that just doesn't exist out there. Right and like that's worth talking about to as this sort of learning process that one goes through when it comes to you know, handicapping football games or baseball games or hockey games or whatever. And also betting them right and just understanding like it's not going to be all you know, it's not gonna be all gold doubloons and Scrooge McDuck Now the good news is when you have a really hot start to a season where you win the first four weeks and you win relatively big you know we had eight and twos and nine and one atss and everything that comes with that is that you've got right those jelly beans stored where you can hand a few back right and so you see all the different reports about how this is the worst weekend in a long time for the sports books and you know without sort of coming out and sort of you know intentionally doing it in a sort of you know all or nothing type of a way like we do try to end up on the side of of the sports books right because we are trying to you know take advantage of value in the market so if everybody's on one side you know use any game you want as example but if everyone's on one side like say you know the Cardinals for example. Right? We know that there's probably going to be value on the San Francisco 40 Niners this past week and we will be necessarily wrong about that. I don't think so right like that cover written all over it a couple of high leverage decisions that weren't necessarily ideal and and some fourth downplays that didn't work out and and in the end

Unknown: 5:00

yet uh you know total yards differential of basically nothing right? Like That was an incredibly evenly game evenly played game. And you know, it's a it's a one possession game for me right. And if you have five and a half points, right, you think and know or whatever that it's going to be a one possession game and it is a one possession game, there's very few ways that you can lose that right if you can leave on sixth and you can lose it on seven and that's just, you know, happened to be where we landed. So I just felt like a lot of those games just kind of went down. And you know, it's funny, you know, I don't know if it's superstition or just experience or whatever. But I'm sitting there on Saturday and I'm watching the Red River rivalry nailed it again. And

Matt: 5:42

as I say there with Texas plus three and a half or a play eight, seven, I mean, 14 to nothing right off the bat, and you're like, how could this possibly lose and then it gets a little dicey here later, but you got to tie game, and you are one play away one tackle away from Oklahoma bringing the kicker out, right to make it just a three point victory. So you never, you know, I'm always aware, I'm always ready for these things to happen. Yeah, I wasn't even ready for this one, right? I wasn't ready for 30 plus yard, touchdown. But the point is, is like when a bad beat like that happens, I just feel like it kind of just sets the tone for the rest of the Saturday and even potentially, for the rest of the weekend. Not that we had a ton of bad beats, there was a handful of them in college football, but it's just one where you go like, Oh, right, like kind of a side of things to come here like this, this might not go it's not just one last year, right? They might be a couple extra losses than we normally get. Because you know, when you start off really hot, you'd be foolish not to acknowledge some luck, right? Some good boxes that go your way, right. And so when we get some bad bounces, or some bad beats along the way, you know, maybe they all just manifest themselves here and week four in the NFL and week five, and college football. Hopefully that's the case. We'll get right back on track here for next weekend and going forward. But again, from a process standpoint, you know, whether it's San Francisco, Arizona, whether it's Texas, Oklahoma, we did pretty well, from a process standpoint, we just didn't have all the results that we hope for him, you know, couple of different games go one way or another. And you feel a lot better about a weekend like that, but you just move on, you know, Tuesday morning, you flush it, you move on to the next next week. And that's just how you have to take it from a mentality standpoint, right in attitude. When it comes to betting, like these things are going to be up and down. It's not just you know, you know, eight and seven, that every single week or you're just churning out a small profit, right? Sometimes it's 10 and four, sometimes it's four in 10. And that's just the way it is. And we move on, right? Yeah, not to get too high or too low. Totally, I think weekend's like this too. And especially certain games, which we'll we'll get into a little more deeper in a second here. But it's a reminder, the game ends and then you're like, Oh, yeah, people actually bet money on these things. Right? Like, because it's so insane sometimes how these things end up, finishing. So you know, we flippantly sometimes I'll just be like, you know what, the way that this game is, the way that I see this, I'm just gonna take the points because I feel like it'll just be close. And then at the end of the day, I'd rather be sitting around with the points. And I'll say a lot of those things happen this weekend. But we'll start with an absolutely insane like Monday night because I think that's was a great example of that. Whereas last week, when we discussed it on Friday, we discussed this game and I said it's Carson Wentz and I was so worried about late or about taking Carson Wentz in the points. Carson Wentz wasn't really the problem, which is even more surprising to me. Like, don't get me wrong, there were some Carson D things going on. Sure, but not as much as we've seen lately from Carson Wentz. But my point here is learning. And what we try to do here is try to learn different ways to you know, figure out this gambling stuff. And I want to give you a lot of credit because it's something that I would never have done before. But it's understanding the process that I needed last night, the Ravens to win for survivor purposes, right, but the Colts to cover the seven point, right? Yeah, that's an interesting thread the needle. Oh, you did it? No, but that's a nervous place to be sitting and watching that game going back and forth. Because that game was it flipped about like 87 different times over. But from a gambling perspective. How did you take in that game last night because the Ravens came back around 19 points down to win in overtime. And I know we don't like saying this, but don't want to look at the Ravens is kind of being lucky this season. Yeah, I mean, maybe right. Like it's tough, right? Like so I mean, last games, last night's game specifically. I mean, what, like, honestly, what was that right? What was that in a couple of different ways, right? Like what was that from the Ravens defense and so you know, I'm watching it.

Sheldon: 10:00

I'm going okay it's not this isn't Bill's chiefs where there's like full scale breakdowns and guys running free in the secondary. It was more a game plan from the Colts that was going to use what the Colts do well, right and then the Colts If nothing else, right at the expense of speed, their offense is physical. Right when you have a guy like Pittman when you run Zach Pascal out there who I don't know if you know necessarily a track star, you know, they have big guys, right? They always have a two tight ends setup, right? Jonathan Taylor probably one of the most underrated running backs in the league, maybe because it's still relatively new, but also because he had some fumble issues to start last season, his rookie season, and it was like, Okay, I don't think this guy's any good. Like, he's killing them, blah, blah, blah. And then all of a sudden, right, like, sort of secretly, in a way, he becomes this, like, legit weapon. And so you talk about whence, and it's like, you know, on the stat sheet, it's a 75 yard touchdown pass. But it's, you know, a jump off screen, right? Yeah. And like, in the offensive line gets out there. And you see, you know, the Ravens, like, what do they do really well, right, like, they defend the past. And they sort of have a smaller group out there, right, sort of a standard nickel defense, if you will, in some cases, a dime defense, where they have really mobile, but also smaller guys, you know, who are playing, you know, out of their 11 guys, right, like six of them are really more known for speed on any given snap, than they are necessarily for size and power. And so the Colts go in, and they go like, Alright, we're just gonna try to power this team, you know, to death, if you will, right, sort of like Derrick Henry style with the Titans a few years back when the Titans won in that playoff game. And so once you see that, right, from a matchup standpoint, and that's where you'd like to get from a handicapping point of view where you go, okay, it isn't just like, okay, Colts didn't beat this team didn't beat this team. So they're not going to beat this team. And we thought that the, the Ravens were going to be able to bully them when the Ravens are on offense, but that's the thing I would be worried about a little bit here from the from a ravens standpoint, which is funny, because you know, you know, we always want like Lamar to do better when it comes to the passing game, right? And it's like, it just, if it's not perfect, right, we find that like nitpick type of thing. And it's like, now he's actually throwing the ball really well. But the run game isn't there, right? They don't have like the, obviously a bunch of injuries to start the season. So it's not really necessarily their fault, right? They thought they'd have JK Dobbins and a couple of other guys here, and now it's down the line and you just, you know, we talk about running backs being replaceable. We put if you lose three guys, and you have a very specific run style that is hit them in the mouth, and you lose all those three guys from that style, right? Whether it's Ingram leaving or Dobbins getting hurt, or the other two guys who who are missing, it's like now you're just bringing guys off the street, who might be able to hit holes, they might be able to make the cuts that sort of a standard running back would be able to make but they're not really ravens running backs, right? Let's see, Murray has that upright, he's sort of a taller guy style. He is that little ball of hate type of guy who's just going to run through your face. Yeah. And just to jump in there because I feel like a comparison is the niners, right? Like the niners, they have a different style of running back. But it's a style of running back that fits their offensive that stretch run type thing. And if you don't have that guy, yeah, it doesn't really work once you get down to like your third and fourth running. Right? You kind of route I mean, the guy you're getting off the street. Yeah. Or you draft a Trey sermon and think that he's going to be that that dude because they you know, he ran that way at Ohio State and Oklahoma and you go Okay, like he asked to be that dude, and then he doesn't necessarily know where to go, and they can't play him. Right. And they're dying to have Elijah Mitchell out there. And like, that's a dude off the street, right? Like that is the dude off the street, who is still somehow a better option than a guy getting drafted. So after the Ravens, right? And then it's like, Okay, well, if that's not working, then Lamar is going to pull the ball a lot more. And when Lamar pulls the ball that much more. You know what a guy Lamar gets a little loose with the football, you lay on this for like two years, I gotta give you credit, you've been telling me this for like two years, and it's just so in it. And when he's not fumbling and he's not throwing the bad interception and listen, there was a bad throw at the end of that game and where he just kind of flipped it up. And I watched it, I was like, oh, and then it hit the ground. And I'm like, you're gonna come back in this game. And no one's going to talk about this absurd throw that he just attempted and, and like it'll just be swept under the rug. But like there's a lot of different ways that throw goes badly and this game is over. And so whether it's the throws or the fumbles or whatever, if the ball is in his hands a little bit more, and he's just not going to be that safe with it, which is just kind of never really is. It's it just leaves them open to obviously turnovers and teams staying in games with him. Now if he doesn't turn that ball over. Well, the now we get into the bully version, right where he's Instead of fumbling it, he's getting loose, and he's running. And it just sucks for the third team. But the Colts defense was impressive in this one and that I have to give them credit for but again, I don't know if that's, you know entirely, because the Ravens are just sort of working at kind of an 80% offensive capacity. And that's only because Lamar is throwing the ball. So well, at this point, like, normally just based on the run game concept, like, it would be a lot lower than 80%. But he's making up for that in a lot of ways through the air. And so, you know, a nice win for them, but like, they need a lot of things to go right in that fourth quarter. Obviously, anybody does when it comes to a 19 point deficit and a 16 point deficit with essentially, you know, two possessions left and we're like, okay, we just need touchdown, two quarter touchdown to pointer, no big deal. Like we got this under. And then when the coin toss and go down and get another touchdown, but like, you know, we talked about it once, you know, I talked about being on the Ravens, and I got a minus six and a half last week for just, you know, like a minus 112.

Matt: 16:03

And I'm like, okay, like, that's a great number, especially before the game starts, right where the number gets to eight, in eight and a half in some spots. So we talked about like a closing line value concept. And it's like, Okay, I got it at six and a half the number close at eight and a half here. I gotta be right, right, and we get drunk on them on the market concept. And like, Well, everybody knows, and like, blah, blah, blah, and then it comes out. And then it's like Colter up big. And you're never in the mix, right? You're never in the mix to cover that game. And you're like, well, what happened to all this closing line value that we got, right? So sometimes I think you just one of those weeks, hammer away, and now you can grab the Colts at eight, eight and a half. But you get into that mindset, right? Where you go. Yeah, if I get six and a half with the Ravens, like, I'm going to take that. And like that's going to be the Ryder diabet that I make. Whereas if it was eight and a half a week, I'm probably on the Colts, right? Like just that's the difference, right? Once it crosses that key number, I'm never laying eight and a half with the rounds, right? And so you just go, okay, like I just spent six days going like six and a half sevens available, six and a half sevens available. That seems cheap. And you know what? It was cheap. Because the closing line, right? The number after all the money was counted, the closing number was eight and a half, right? And so six and a half and seven is by definition, a good deal. And just because the bed doesn't necessarily work out, right, you put yourself you gave yourself extra probability in winning that bet. And so I can't beat myself up about that bet from a closing line standpoint, because I got the best of the best of the number. And, you know, and beat the market. It's just the teams didn't show up, right? We're like, one team didn't show up for the first half and that sort of thing. So again, you know, like that's, it's, you know, is it a lesson learned necessarily, because I'm always going to be excited about a two point closing line value across a key number, like that's always going to get me going, like, that's part of what we do here. And that's why I think a lot of people don't necessarily understand because, again, binary concept of wins and losses, what was your record last week? But it's like, well, what do you know, how did you do closing line value standpoint, right? And over the course of time, that's gonna work out way more than it's not going to. Exactly. And I think that's the biggest thing to emphasize here. Right? The way that you approach things is different than the average Gambler, like I come on here and talk from like the average gambler viewpoint, and a lot of what that is, is saying, Okay, well, the spread is a touchdown, or it's around a touchdown. And then the average gamblers like, yeah, I think the Ravens are way better, they can win by more than a touchdown. And that's you're just coming at it from that angle, instead of thinking about it from the actual line, where it was, where it's going, where it could be going and figuring out the value on that side in terms of how closely are these two teams rated? You know, how good are the Colts playing compared to where, how injured are the Ravens playing at this point, and all of those other factors that come into it. It's so interesting. And it also kind of leads me into the next game I want to talk about, which is another primetime game from the weekend, which was the Sunday night or the bills in the chiefs. And the line on this game was interesting, because it was floating between two and a half to three the entire time. And you've been talking about public teams, and the whole public seem to be on the bills, which worried me for sure, right? Because I didn't like where I was at to begin with being like, no, I couldn't win this game. And I'm I'm on those thoughts just in my own mind. And then once you open it up, and you're looking around, and everyone's like, oh, no Bills, Bills, Bills, that made me really, really nervous. But then you go into the game. And I want to talk to you about this, because there are a couple of things that we were talking about going in, right? The Chiefs tax, where people are wondering, are the bills actually good? Or are they just beating up on bad teams? So I want to ask you after the bills come out and dominate the chiefs, what's your biggest takeaway from that game? In terms of everything right? Like is a better team. You know,

Sheldon: 20:00

What do you think of the best team in the AFC are Should we start worrying about the Chiefs as the Chiefs tax officially dead all of those things yeah there's there's a few questions there. No

Matt: 20:12

no, but as I was watching that, you know, it's beyond sort of like is this team good? Is this team bad? I mean, it isn't right though this quarter I go this team is good, this team is bad. So a couple of different things. I'll just sort of put this out there and kind of move on to the next thing. Yeah. What's the difference between the chiefs and the Cowboys right now like just sort of think about that like think about to yourself like if you started profiling each team in its like, right now right? Forget the concept of the Chiefs or whatever so you know, holster holster that answer for a second um, as I'm watching the game like and last night's game so I kind of compare the two weirdly enough because we just watched the Ravens you know, beat the Chiefs a couple of weeks ago and I'm starting to wonder I was like, is that you know, necessarily that impressive of a win but again, from a game planning standpoint, watching the Colts and them having an idea of what they wanted to do and how they wanted to play the Ravens and sort of you know, really looking to that game and maybe using the extra day of prep for that game. Whereas you watch and you watch the bills who were running Raven style run plays with Josh Allen because they had seen the tape that that really works well against the Chiefs now you and I might sit here and be like chiefs defense is awful, like you can just show up and run plays and like beat them or whatever, but it was a game that the it mattered more to the bills right and we do the whole like cliche thing like they want to win this game for like revenge purposes and dadadada da. And like we sort of brushed that off because a lot of the time the vast majority of the time it's total BS because of course x team wants to win this game or like this player wants to win this game it's like well do the other 55 guys really want to win right all of that stuff is very cliche right? But if you have a coach and we're gonna talk a lot about coaching I think today but like if you have a coach that has some weapons in there and some tools in there to have preparation that's different than a normal week other than just being like we got to hit them harder or we got to stay on our blocks longer it's like well no How about we pull out some you know, an extra chapter in our playbook where we have the Ravens run game plays that we can use with Josh Allen What if we do that here in there and we'll be able to not just score 2528 30 points but if we need to, we can hang 40 on these guys because we might just get it ourselves into a game where it's touchdown touchdown back and forth touchdown touchdown right so

Sheldon: 22:49

obviously the bills you know they brought brought out the good plays in the same way that we saw last year with the Chiefs bringing out the good plays and and the Ravens bringing out the good plays like that game specific stuff where I'm watching the Ravens last night and it felt like they thought they could just show up run their normal stuff and beat the Colts right they didn't have the same like oh here comes like this play or Oh what they you know we didn't see that one coming because they didn't circle the calendar the way that the bills circuit the bills are circling the wagons they're circling the calendar yeah the same way the Ravens did against the Chiefs you're totally right yeah yeah these games like there are certain games where if you have a good coach who is you know, quality game planner and he has circled back calendar that really means something and that you know, as far as the cheese tax is concerned, we talked about it last week and we weren't really getting that because whether this game was one or one and a half or two and a half right? It wasn't over the key number of three normally you would see that game be three and a half and you know as you go through the week and you see it every time it hits three right it gets back right back down and that's what we should that's the type of stuff that is you know a really good indicator now I sort of just kind of got in my head the idea of okay well if we can get the two and a half year under three at a flat number like the Chiefs have to be the play and obviously within like 10 seconds of that game I'm like well that's not going to work because the bills are just the better team and so you said you had an answer with regards to what's the difference between the chiefs and the Cowboys. So what do you have like what do you think the difference is between these teams because you're gonna laugh you're gonna lie Andy reader Andy Reed versus Mike McCarthy

Matt: 24:30

like I can't wait for the playoffs to come around so I can bet against Mike McCarthy like the first chance I get against right coach Oh, I can't wait for that right. But like you know, you we come into the season and we go okay, like, cowboys are gonna score right they have a lot of weapons on offense. They have arguably more dangerous weapons than the Chiefs do. Right? Because they go and they draft quite Edwards a lair, but like there hasn't really been anything in the end.

Sheldon: 25:00

fell from his resume that would make us worry about him right it's sort of a chicken in the egg thing Yeah. Do we consider him a weapon because he's on the Chiefs offense or because he's actually good right he gets drafted and then like you know he goes like first round and fantasy football drafts without ever seeing a snap because we just assume that he's good because he was good on LSU when they had it historically good offensive team right yeah and then you know he comes in later like I don't really think all that much of this dude right? I don't know that Darrell Williams or or Damian Williams from a couple years ago like are they that much of you know, a downgrade from this guy? And they sign Josh Gordon and everybody goes like oh, look out like they've signed Josh Gordon. But like, is Josh Gordon any different than any of the other sort of second third tier wide receivers that they've had on that team? Where you go, Oh, he hit this guy deep, right? Yes. Like again is that chiefs offense are because that guy is particularly good. And so the only two guys on that team that scarier tyreke Hill and Travis Kelsey, right? And if tyreke Hill can't catch the football, he becomes increasingly you know, are decreasing Lee valuable right and it's like he's not catching the football okay? And you know, early on you see mahomes and Kelsey not able to connect and you Okay, like these guys are all human right? Like they are not just you know, Video game, you know, at 898 on the on the Madden scale, right? Who were just automatically going to play well, when you look at the cowboys and you go they've changed things defensively, both from a coordinator standpoint and a talent standpoint and that you know, whether it's up or yeah just people developing right like Trayvon Diggs now like, favorite for Defensive Player of the Year, like if they voted on it tomorrow, like he is going to win it. And you know, a handful of other guys who are talented we talked about, like the jaylon Smith, you know, them getting rid of him, because they're just like, yeah, we have too many good guys to have jaylon Smith, who we have invested in play, because he's just not good enough. And so that cowboys defense that we all just assumed all cowboys defense is going to stink this year, blah, blah, blah, right? Because we all just yell into the echo chamber and hear everything back. It's like that defense is way better than the cheese and like, yeah, Mike McCarthy, it's hilarious because he just kind of stands there and like doesn't do anything because, you know, defensively, that's not even really his thing anyway, and they've already got that kind of handled with Dan Quinn, who's like, upstairs, like in his pajamas and his sweats. You know, he had like, he didn't realize the cameras on him. But like he said, they're calling places. And Kellen Moore, right, who has, you know, got this offense humming. And we talked about him, you know, even with the sort of second stringers across the board last year having an HMI. And I'm like, right now from a rating standpoint, like I don't know where the two meet, necessarily, but I'm ready to talk about the Cowboys being a better team than the Chiefs because they are giving up 7.1 yards per play, which like is historically terrible. Or if your offense was gaining 7.1 yards per play. Right? You would be historically good. You would be the Chiefs in their prime, you'd be there to show on turf. No. Yeah, exactly. And so if you are, if you are giving that up to anybody, right, who anybody who walks in becomes the greatest show on turf, like that's a really high bar to try to jump across. Now. They'll hammer some bad teams, right? They're going to hit like whoever they play. That's, you know, a 10 point underdog. This doesn't mean okay, like we have to fade the Chiefs though we've Of course, talked at length this season and last season, about fading the Chiefs because the numbers always going to be a little bit too high. But any team with a pulse offensively is going to be able to hang with this team. And if tyreke Hill doesn't make every catch, and mahomes and Kelsey don't make every downfield connection, right? Like they're on a high wire act right now that even the Cowboys don't have to sort of, you know, manipulate and cross. You know, they're crossing Niagara Falls in the in the high wire situation. Like they don't have to do that because the defense is holding up enough for them to not have to. Yeah, so in terms of our ratings, it's it sounds that you're you're obviously very high on the Cowboys as of now, which was something you said last week, you're really going to pay attention to this week. But the other side of this, of course, between the NFC and AFC is that the AFC teams, there's a lot more teams, I think at the top that are in the mix ready to take the crown from the chiefs. Obviously, we just talked about the bills. And if it's not the bills, could be another game that we were looking ahead to. And I call it a big boy game and you were quick to to correct me and say a big brain game between the chargers and the browns, and it lived up to the hype. That game was incredible. Fourth downs everywhere, just such confidence in both teams offenses going for it. And so if the bills aren't the best team in the AFC, maybe we don't know if the Chiefs have completely fallen off. Could it actually be the Chargers? It certainly could be you know, it could also be the Browns right? Like because you're watching that game and that's it.

Matt: 30:00

Touchdown Browns league. And so and you know, first and foremost, and probably should at least sort of put a bow on the last game. Like, I think the bills are, right, the best team in the AFC, but it's not by some landslide, right it is, you know, the fun part about this season is that because the Chiefs have sort of been knocked down a peg, even in a win right against the browns, but have been knocked down a peg by the chargers and the Ravens, right? And obviously this past weekend by the bills and you go Okay, like we talked before the season, we're like, man, there are a lot of teams for these seven playoff spots in the AFC. And it doesn't mean just because the chiefs are a downgrade that the AFC sort of less quality. I think it's the opposite. I think there's more quality, right? And yeah, we watched us that Browns game in the Chargers game. And you're just like, if you guys are out there chess match and each other man like and you can see they're kind of looking across the field at each other to like, you know what I mean, and neither guy is an imposing guys. So that's sort of what I mean by like, the big boy versus sort of the Big Brain concept. Like these two, if you put them in a suit could just as easily be in like an actual, you know, chess game type situation, right? And so, but I love it, right? Like, that's what we want, like you and I come on this on the show, and shows him years past and have been like, God can no one coach, like can no one make the correct decisions here. And now we've got at least a couple of teams that have that dude, right? And that's what was fun about that game. And the thing is, you know, whether it's you know, ravens Colts or, you know, Bill's chiefs, like knowing what game you're in, right? Like, that's all a, it's sort of all I want, I want just coaches to make their decisions, knowing what game they're in. And so people go like, oh, like the charges were down, you know, two touchdowns. And they're like fourth and two with their own 25. And he goes for it like that guy's crazy like that game could you know, if he doesn't get that it's, you know, almost guaranteed to be a three touchdown game. And that's sort of the narrative, right concept of that, like all these crazy, like, he got away with one like this guy's nuts. But here's the thing, one, if you punch that away, it's going to be a three touchdown game, like this idea that just because you punt that the other team is impervious to scoring, like, Oh, they had to go an extra 50 yards or an extra 40 yards, because you just, it's probably just delaying it too, right? Well, that's I mean, it's like,

Sheldon: 32:23

it's like, oh, that's three plays, you know? And it's the old thing, right? Like, do you want do you, you know, somebody jumps down the street holds you at gunpoint and says, Get in the car? Like, do you get in the car? So that you just just delay the inevitable? Like, do you think it's going to go better for you, if you jump in the car with these people? Like probably not like you'd rather be out in public? So do you think it's going to go better for you in the third quarter, if you just pump the ball away and delay the inevitable? And you're also by the way, like you said, giving yourself less time to come back once you go down three touchdowns, right? So it's like, let's just get to it, you know, like it just hanging in this game for as long as we possibly can. isn't the right strategy trying to win the game. It's why he goes for two to go down six, instead of go down seven, because we're trying to win the game. We're not trying to just force overtime. And I think a lot of people are still having a hard time understanding that. And so he knows that he's in a 4542 style game. Right? He knows that. And so he's like, why would I you know, he knows that right now. For all the success that the defense has had in other matchups. He knows he's in a game against the Browns offense. And you and I talked about it like the charges, we're going to have trouble up against that Browns offense versus say like the Raiders offense or even the Chiefs offense that we have talked about for two years, the Chargers defense is built to beat the Chiefs offense, right? That's the tricky thing about the Ravens when they have those smash males running backs, or the Browns as they do right like that. They are a different game plan. And so the Chargers know they're like, okay, we're going to be in this offensive game. We can't give them the ball in 25. But we can't give them the ball on their 25 either, because every time you flipped away from that game, you would flip back, and the team would be on the 25 the offensive 25, right. Like if you're like, oh god, I just left three plays ago. And it's like, yeah, that's how quick both teams were getting from side to side in that game. And so Brandon Staley knows this. Right? He knows that and he also knows that the Browns can't stop his offense. And that Yeah, they stopped them for eight yards on the first three plays of that drive, for instance, right, but he's gonna keep giving that offense and Justin Herbert, opportunities to convert and maybe it doesn't work out and maybe they end up losing that game, but just punting the ball away like Anthony Linwood last year with Justin Herbert is just never going to be the right answer in that game. If you look up at the clock, and it's 10 to seven in the third quarter. Okay, different story, right and a lot of people are sort of still in that mind.

Matt: 35:00

said of 80s and 90s and early 2000s football where you just don't, it just don't go for it on fourth in two, but like with that offense in that game, they are a 60 70% probability of converting that. Whereas if you punted just because they're 70 yards to go for the browns, they are still probably like 50 to 60% chance of them scoring a touchdown. And so you just see both of those guys like they know what game they are in. And a lot of NFL coaches, and it's really sad, have no clue about that. And so, you know, we talked about the Brandon Staley Coach of the Year ticket to jump in, if you hadn't at the, you know, on Friday show about plus 700 being that my favorite bet to come from this game. And it's again, another situation right, and again, win or lose, you know, maybe if they had lost, it's like, oh, this guy's just a nut. But like, this just furthers his case. And now he's the prohibitive favorite plus 400. So a little bit of value there. And again, every week, a new clip comes out from Brandon's daily, and you're just like, this guy gets it. So like the, the media machine, right, the public relations machine is going there. So that's probably the best thing that we did when it comes to that game, because and those two, those two coaches are outstanding, and Stefanski won it last year, and Staley is going to win it this year. And that's what's interesting about talking about the coaches, because that plays a role in how we look at different gambling loads each and every single week, because I know for me, I'm definitely on, I'll simplify things a lot and say, like, Hey, I trust this coach a lot more. Or I'd rather be riding with this coach, meeting the cover because I know he's gonna be proactive. Yeah, at the end of the game, instead of like, just trying not to lose. And that's important. Well, and we're and final sort of concept too, right. And we talked about the binary like wins and losses type of thing. And so, you know, for one, that's uh, you know, we talked about being a really bad spot for the Chargers coming off of the Chiefs win and a Monday Night Football win. And you having this Smashmouth Browns team coming into town, and I think we were right, right, like when you're sitting there and the charges are down two touchdowns, you're going like, yeah, like the defense, I don't want to say they weren't ready to go. But like, it's a really tough, you know, short week to prepare for a really different offense in the browns. But Staley, like gives them that energy, where we're not just gonna punt on fourth and two, and just kind of hope for the best. It's like no f fat man, like we are going for this thing. And like that brings energy onto the team, more than some of these other sort of momentum concepts that you and I sort of talk about a lot of the time, like, that's one where it's like, okay, the coach is dragging them into this. And by the way, if you were on the browns, for example, right, and you're sitting there, and you get to the end of that game, and we haven't even really mentioned the shenanigans of the eckler, like sliding down and then going to slide down and they drag them into the end zone, like speaking of bad beats, right? Like, isn't it right, the move is obviously for him to fall. But also, we had the same situation with the Falcons last year. And again, as much as we sort of credit Staley because he's got them in the mindset, it's, again, whether it was Todd Gurley last year, or Austin eckler. This year, it's like, they just like they can't not go into the end zone. And I don't know, if I had a chance. Yeah, you

Sheldon: 38:14

guys are carrying him into the end zone. But if you're sitting there with a Browns ticket, it's sort of a mini version of the Texas LSU game where you're like, oh, okay, like, you're going to kick a field goal here to get the win, I'm going to cover on plus two and a half, which the number like got out to, right. And again, like, again, days, weeks, months from now, that goes under that your column as a loss, right? You did not deserve that loss, because as much as we give credit to the Chargers winning that game, and we you and I sort of talked about the idea of like these high scoring games, like, it could just be seven points back and forth, and back and forth. So you might lose with one second to go, but you might lose by six or seven points because of just the nature of the game. And it ended up shaking out that way. But it probably shouldn't have right like the Browns plus two and a half was sort of it was certainly the right side halfway through the third quarter. And it certainly was the right side when you think that they're going to kick the you know, super short field goal. And then it just doesn't work out that way. And like, it's not even the Chargers wanting to score a touchdown, right. So that again, that's another you know, concept of like, Oh, we lost that. You know, you lost that bet if you were on the or excuse me on the browns, but like, did you deserve a loss there? Yeah, right. But that's having a deeper knowledge of just what are you doing? And are you just freestyling each and every week here trying to gamble and win some bets, right? We talked about going for it on fourth down and how important of a theme that's become it kind of is overshadowing because it's the flip side of something else. That is a massive theme. And that's these Kickers, I don't know what was going on this weekend. But especially during the famously titled witching hour. I was like losing it going back and forth because there's so much going

Matt: 40:00

On missed field goals everywhere but a good field goal being hit for the Vikings come back when it's just outright craziness with these kickers and obviously that affects the point spread. Is there a way to even like, gauge that thing when looking at a point spread or just kind of like you just kind of throw your hands in the air and just whatever? Well, I call it sort of the hockey zation. Right of football, football handicapping because for hockey handicapping, essentially the right the basis is all right, who gets more chances to score, right? If you can predict who's going to get more high danger chances as it's called, and who's going to have more expected goals? Then you just kind of live with the results right? And you go Okay, well, this one team was supposed to score more, and they didn't. And it was because I goalie made a crazy save or pocket the goalpost or whatever, right? And you go, alright, that's fine. When it comes to you know, kickers like yeah, like you go, you know, we sort of fight over every point in the market, right? It's like, is it six and a half? Is it seven? like can I if I can get seven for like, a couple extra dollars, like I'll do that and all that sort of thing. Right? And then you sit down, you watch the game and the first play or first touchdown, kicker missed it misses an extra point. And you're just like, you just gave away the point that I've been fighting for grinding for all week or fight. Yeah, but the problem is, you know, we intrinsically we think of it as like, Oh, this kicker like screwed us. And then the other kicker comes down. This literally happened in Houston in New England, right? And the other kicker comes down, and he misses the extra point. But we never we never think of that. And we're not obviously we're not aggrieved by it, we but we don't think of that in a positive way in the same way that we consistently feel aggrieved by Kay Amy Fairburn just mistake missing an extra point. Now he goes and he misses yet another extra point after that and you're just like oh my god, like this is insane, right? But in your mind, your team's missed two extra points and you go like that's gonna come back to haunt me but then like you forget that the other team also missed an extra point. The other thing is Cincinnati Green Bay right? We talked about that on like, that was the game to sort of everybody like Watch out. This is going to be dangerous, etc, etc. Like three three and a half. And like we were right because you get to overtime there right? And there's a lot of different ways the Bengals win a bet there. And there's not that many ways that the Packers could win a bet there. But if you're handicapping kickers like I always think like God Shouldn't we just be handicapping kickers here because they again they've been making literal points but if I was handicapping kickers I would feel pretty good about Mason Crosby right like he is one of the best he has been on the Packers for a really long time you know and so I would expect him to make any one of those like three kicks that that he missed right so even if you go in going like I'm gonna bet the Packers because Mason Crosby which is like a hilarious way to look at it but at the same time like might have been the right side if he ends up kick making all of those kicks necessarily so yeah like it's just impossible you go like okay I expect Mason Crosby not to be the guy to screw it up I expect pay me fair bear knots. And you can do the same thing you just talked with the Vikings right like Greg Joseph. The last time Greg Joseph was mentioned on this podcast he missed a 36 yarder at the horn to you know lose the game against the Cardinals right and we were like lamenting him because we had the Vikings moneyline that day and then now and forget the 54 yarder you made to win the game he also made a 50 plus yarder right before that to what we thought was seal the game

Sheldon: 43:31

yeah like oh it was like oh my god if he misses this from 50 whatever yards the lions you're going to have a short field down seven and like yeah that's not really great but like you know he's really got to make this kick and he makes it you're like great Joseph is back and little did we know that we would have to get a second long kick kick from Greg Joseph and we did and so we always make the joke right kicker misses a short kick he's gonna be bagging groceries on Monday and blah blah blah but it's like you never know whether it's gonna be Mason Crosby that can't make the kicks or you don't or Greg Joseph who can make the kicks on a week to week basis and so that's no different than hockey and you never know like which Shin is you know which shin pad is going to go out you know the puck gonna go off have to go in whose net right like we don't know where that difference maker is going to come from so like it's infuriating and like I know that's why you hate finger so much and listen I'm right there with you because like there's just no rhyme or reason for any of it and like sometimes I think these guys are better from long distance because they just relax on extra points. And they just tried to like catch it, you know, cruise it up there and all of a sudden boom, it's shanked whereas like a 55 yarder like you're super locked in and I don't know how kickers you know practice, but I imagine they're probably out there kicking 55 yarders for practice just assuming that the 37 yarder is go is fait accompli right like it's just okay if I can make a 55 year error of course I'm gonna make the 37 yard extra point like I don't know I'd imagine the practice the extra point but like, you know, who knows man who knows what they're doing. So like kicker

Matt: 45:00

In a nutshell it's so hilarious right? Because I always view it from you have all these like crazy athletes like you see some of the things that Lamar Jackson is doing on a football field and he's carrying the team on his back almost losing the game and then winning the game and then just going back forth and then at the end of the day games come down to the kicker right yeah. Herbert

Sheldon: 45:22

right like and like Justin Herbert like eckler and it's like yeah, we're in this like track me and it's back and forth and another touchdown and like Yeah, we did it and it's funny like watching them if they don't even react and especially the Chargers like they even react to the kicker missing the kick anymore they're just sort of like well we scored a touchdown I guess we'll have to do it again. And you know and again every I guess you know, you live in a in a football locker room, you know, in that team. And you just sort of understand like we're gonna need to we're still probably gonna need the kicker at some point right? Like whether it's a 20 yard whether we literally have to put it in the middle of the field for a 20 yard field goal like we are going to need this kicker like we can't just banish him into the locker room right this second and so yeah, like it's incredibly frustrating. There's obviously you know, we used to say like, Oh, this is that one week a year where kickers are just on their Bs and like I think it's once a month now right? It's like oh, this is that one week per month instead of per year that the kickers are just all off and I don't understand how I don't understand why you know again, it's all beyond me but like it's impossible to sort of handicap because you never know who's gonna show up. It has no and yet somehow Aaron Rodgers is still friends with Mason Crosby. Right? Um, but yeah, let's keep it moving. And big picture here. What I want to talk about is your big thought for betting and handicapping. I was trying to ask you this weekend and week out just to see how certain trends change. So what was your What was your big thought for betting in handicapping this week? Yeah, so this week, it's it's we had a couple of situations right where circumstances within the construct of the game and the pick if you will change, right, we came home we talked about how Penn State plus two plus two and a half like if you get I mean, we're hoping to get three never really got there, like Penn State is a bet that I want to make because I think these teams are at the very least right or so the very basic that they're even, but I also trust Sean Clifford, more than I trust the Iowa quarterback right Spencer Petrus. And so you know, we go in going like, okay, we're gonna trust Sean Clifford, that can be a little bit scary because he has a history and his you know, last few seasons of not being all that trustworthy, but he had been this season and then you get into the cowboys and the Giants game, right? And you go seven, seven and a half points. That's a lot of points. You know, we like the Giants on the road. And as much as we just spoke really highly of the Cowboys, right? Like this is a game that could be close. And so you make those bets. We talked about those on Friday and again, from a binary standpoint, you come back a week later, or a month later or a year later and they are in your loss column. But they don't necessarily have to be because this is betting right? This isn't picks. This isn't a pool, you're locking it in and hoping for the best This is betting. And what that means is is that if circumstances change in your game, and you can get out to do so don't be sort of tied to your bet. So Penn State you know, goes up 17, three, Iowa and the only three points that they got was a Clifford interception and you know, immediate field goal kick because the Penn State defense holds up and doesn't give up the touchdown, and Iowa can't complete a pass. Right? So our basic handicap is listen, Clifford's a little bit sketchy, but we think we're gonna we're gonna trust him more than we're gonna trust pietrus and pietrus can't complete a pass and it's 17 to three for Penn State. And we're laughing right and we're not laughing because we're still sad about the Texas game that we haven't gotten over that but at least right at least we're gonna get the Penn State game home because I was not going to crack 10 points and then the injury happens to Clifford and you can tell like he is not coming back and you can go into the rest of this game and go well I don't care like I've got a seven point lead like at that point because you know the turnover and I was scores you know it's a 17 to 10 game and you can go Well listen, I got a seven point lead you know, my pick was good, and I'm gonna be really stubborn about it. Or you can look at the second half line the live line and be like, ah, Penn State's still favored by three even though the backup quarterback is coming in. And speaking of guys who won't be able to complete a pass like he is certainly a nominee for that and you can go listen, I can get out of this bet and I can take Iowa plus three and I can leave myself a little middle opportunity or income over the top on Iowa and how's my position be Iowa plus three, like, again, if you just set make your bed you go off, you know, pumpkin picking with the wife, and like you aren't watching the game like Yeah, okay. You're just going to take that as well. But if you're paying attention to what's going on in the game, and you're sticking to your handicap, and if you're the handicap for your game is correct, and you've gotten yourself into that position where you have a seven point lead, and you now have a middle opportunity. If your handicap just wrong, and you're down seven points and you can't get out of the bat, like, then that's just a loss because you were wrong, right? But in this case, we were good enough for that first half for that for the portion of the game where Sean Clifford was upright. We were good, right? And so you don't have to just stick to that. And the Cowboys, right? We see Daniel Jones, right? He gets drilled, knees stumbling around, it's really sort of scary for him. But you go like that dude's not coming back. And we know Sean Glennon is now coming in. And Mike Glennon, sorry, I don't know, which is further to the point, though, right? Yeah. 100% your 100% Yeah, like that is fullscale. Further to the point, Larry Glennon comes and

Matt: 50:58

just go, like, Oh, that's not what I signed up for. Right. And the games tied at 10 because they go for it on fourth down on fox news and commercial, which was hilarious. And they scored a touchdown, it's tied, and like you can get out of that bed because the live line is minus seven and like you can literally just bounce out of that bed if you want. You can even come over the top on the Cowboys going well, the Cowboys are gonna score a bunch of points, whether that's before the second half or after the second half. and is and is Larry Glennon going to be able to match that and you go like, I don't think so. I certainly wasn't looking to make this bet with Larry Glennon in in the lineup if he was starting this game and so you can get out of it right and like circumstances change and if you were you were hanging in there right with a 1010 tide game getting plus seven plus seven and a half points you know you've done what you needed to do your you know, the handicap so far was correct. And you just need to kind of be on your toes going like why didn't sign up for Daniel Jones? Why didn't sign up for not Sean Clifford, in the Penn State game so there's a couple of instances there again, you gotta be watching these games and you can get yourself out of potential losses maybe even accidentally Find yourself a middle in there somewhere as well. So you know and just sort of a takeaway again the concept of difference between picks and betting and betting is very you know, much more malleable thing than just like how was your record this week right and unless it's a you know, a strict contest type situation like you can make some moves around that as long as you know you're doing things the right way like It Wasn't I would have loved to get out of in retrospect I would love to get out of Texas plus three and a half but that's why it's a bad beat because it never looks like a bad bet. Right? It looks like a bet that you were just going to ride all the way you know into the sunset so to speak like a good cowboy would

Sheldon: 52:45

Yeah, I mean can we discuss the bad beat can we jump to that yeah, I mean we talked about both right and so there was there was a couple other ones right Louisville we talked about in the in the in the Hurry up offense right they got their 17 points in the second half which a gambler math, right you've got them minus two and a half you go Okay, like we can give up two touchdowns here right and we'll still we'll still, we're still gonna be good. And they didn't right they gave up those two touchdowns. And then Louisville goes down and you know, they get they it's funny like they crack a big run to get into field goal range and they kick the field goal. And it was one of those where like, it was almost too good of a run because it tightened up the field and you just needed one more first down so whether it was a 50 yard run or a 10 yard run for a first down like you almost wanted that 10 yard run because it wouldn't have sort of tightened up the field they kicked the field goal to go up six which like at this point in football right like again they had to kick it because I think you know it's like fourth and like 10 or whatever I don't necessarily disagree with it but like at this point in football if you kick a field goal to go from up three to up six and there's any amount of time on the clock like you know the other teams going down they're going down the other way for a touchdown. That being said it took Virginia there was multiple fourth down conversions on that final drive and they ended up winning So between Louisville minus two and a half which was just brutal Texas plus three and a half which we talked about which was just brutal you know Virginia Tech was another one same kind of concept right where they're up you know late and then they don't get home and then Cincinnati right like we talked about the idea of like plus three or even money line anything along those lines, right like any time let's put it this way there's a bunch of different ways to sort of couch and define bad beats. If your kicker halfway through the kick with the ball being in the air is celebrating making that kick and the kick does not go in. That's by definition of bad of a bad beat in overtime because you know, people like well did he think it was in because it hit the flag at the top and it's like, no, he was celebrating that before it got near the uprights right like it was halfway there. He's like I hit it hard enough.

Matt: 55:00

It's dead straight like we're good high fives all around and then it goes wide and then if you'd like another 20 seconds after that for you know somebody to come over to the you know five person celebration and be like tap them on the shoulder and be like guys that didn't that didn't go in and so like if the kicker thinks it's good and it's not like that by definition is a bad beat we have to add that into the mix. I like it before we switch gears here to college football I just want to ask you one last thing here about the NFL it's our overall like seasonal theme for the entire season which teams no one wants one week and then likes the next and then obviously vice versa which team everyone wants nothing to do with one week and then they're all on the next week kind of hate on the Patriots on this one right because that spread was massive yeah yeah right and everyone's like oh you're an idiot because you know you say you we have to bet on the Texans and it's like yeah that's literally a fundamental tenant in in sports betting right like it sucks like you're betting on the Texans like that's no fun but like it just smells is out here balling out we didn't know that he was gonna have the game on his life and like maybe he ends up just being good or at least sort of serviceable and guess what maybe it takes two starts in the NFL to at least get comfortable right i think we might be seeing that a little bit with Justin fields as well but like yeah maybe the Patriots are that team right because if nobody wanted anything to do with against Tampa Bay everybody wanted you know the Patriots against Houston and now they go Sunday night game against Dallas we're going to be right back there right we're gonna be right back in that spot where money just piling in on Dallas and it's going to be incredibly uncomfortable and all of that sort of thing New Orleans right the the to and fro of the New Orleans Saints and speaking of bad beats and like these sort of go under the radar right but very similar to the Seattle and not necessarily as bad but the teaser leg on the Washington football team died a horrific death and so it's funny like maybe that gets in there and you know that completes a bunch of teasers that maybe you had hypothetically somebody out there or me weekend you know maybe your weekend looks a lot better right? Same thing like San Francisco, Arizona where San Francisco in Arizona have the same amount of yards right but fourth down conversions don't go the way for San Francisco they get across the 55 different times and get like zero points out of it right and obviously there was a play at the goal line which is a very easy like that could have been seven points and it was not right and so you know a couple of different games go your way and the weekend feels a lot better right? And so this you know, getting back to the saints right? Like that's the team that were like one week they're good one week they're bad one week they're good one week they're bad now I can't explain necessarily why that is the case. But we're five weeks in of that exact situation being the case and I know you're gonna say you're gonna see like jameis Winston and

Sheldon: 57:52

And generally, General inconsistency is right, like it's the the Seinfeld episode, right? where he's like, he's bought his spot and dimes and he's biting onions. Right? You see, right, his vision is fine, one dime and it's not the other time and all of a sudden, he's chewing. He's biting into an onion thinking it's an apple, but he can see a dime from across the room. That's jameis Winston. And maybe that's the case. I don't know what's going on there. Right. And so, you know, we'll see next week, whether we feel like it's a negative week for the saints, and jameis Winston, but a lot of these teams that are just going to be eight Nate and obviously not this season, because it's either nine or eight or eight, nine, but who knows, or maybe an 881 in there somewhere too. But like whether it's patriots or saints like these are just sort of like obvious eight and eight teams that you know, going into the Caesars like this team's gonna be at is it as ridiculous as literally like one week on one week off? Like it's not usually that simple. But over the course of 32 teams and a bunch of the teams in mediocrity town here, like that just might be the case, right? This might just be a on off on off situation for those two teams. jamis to me now is almost like the equivalent of how I look at kickers in the sense of that I've no idea what's going to happen. Like, you know how before you just take things for granted and be like, Oh, yeah, this kid is going through jamis at times, it's like, oh, yeah, that's a simple screen pass and he'll throw it to the other team, right? My guys like completing Hail Mary touchdowns running down the field, like, yep.

Matt: 59:19

What just happened here? How is that a thing? And he has that reputation? Right. And like, that sort of precedes him. And it's like he, he sort of reproves it over and over again. But we look at a guy like Joe burrow right, and everybody loves Joe burrow, but like, Who threw a worst interception this weekend than Joe burrow? Did you know that it's like I was devastating, right? And it's like it his name was jamis burrow, or who knows, maybe four or five years from now. Like he has the same reputation. And it's a Ryan Fitzpatrick thing or whatever. And it's like, maybe this position is just really really hard. You know, it's like and all these guys have the talent and the ability to hit jomar, Chase and stride like from you know, 50 yards down the field. Like you

Sheldon: 1:00:00

Just past the hand of a corner, and again, like he makes that throw and you're like, Oh my god, like, That's amazing. But like, is he that specific that he knew that he was going to like the DB was gonna miss the ball that closely or does like nine of the other 10 times he tries that does the DB make that interception? Right? Yeah. And so whether it's like tight throws that get made, or really bad interceptions, like Joe burrow is capable of it jameis Winston is capable of and that's what makes the likes of Tom Brady, that much more impressive than 43. He just never misses those throws. And it's almost like he misses them less now than he used to. Right. And like, it's just a very few, you know, it's a small group of guys, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, right, and like, maybe Justin Herbert's on his way there, but like, we see mahomes not making, you know, as many quality plays, as, you know, as he certainly has over the last couple of years, you wonder, you know, again, you wonder, like, maybe it's just on the right side of a lot of those tight windows, right, where maybe just worked out for him. And like, the sort of numbers, the averages are gonna sort of catch up to him, right. And so, you know, again, when we talk about football, it's all such a small sample size, whether we talk with just a week that didn't go really well, a season that may or may not go, you know, well, or, or sort of, in some cases, a career that like a couple of nice breaks. And there was, you know, a gentleman who just lost his job last night, who had some really good breaks to get himself really, really paid. And, you know, if you look back at that guy's career, you might go, I got a lot of luck involved in that dude's career. And, you know, so again, whether it's coaches or players, right, small sample size in the NFL, nobody is as good as we think they are. Nobody is as bad as we think they are, right? A lot of times just comes down to bounces and luck. I had to just remember which pod I was on, because I was just gonna say bleep that guy, but not saying

Matt: 1:01:55

it took a second there. Yeah. But I totally understand what you're saying. And, you know, I look at it as especially from the QB standpoint, it's like certain guys know how to miss. Right? If that makes sense. Like there's throwing it to just where they're guys gonna get it, or it's out of bounds. Right. And that's kind of, you know, when you're getting into the elite stuff when you're splitting hairs at that level. But we go to college football, right, and we talk about picks in college football. And it was a tough go. But, but I'm the glass half full kind of guy. That's how I try to look at things here. And the overall record for the picks in college football is still at 60%. And we will take that. But yeah, a big story. big story. Oh, well, more than take that 60% you're we're laughing here too. Well, the big story, of course, Alabama goes down. Wow, wow. Wow. Wow. Wow. How did you view that game? And what are their you know, like futures looks going forward here in terms of the college football playoff? Yeah, it's funny, you should mention right 913 and one in our 23 game, hurry up offense last week was 23. A little too many. Maybe, maybe, in fact, it was. But again, a couple of those games were there. Sorry, Louisville, Virginia Tech, right, like games that I was very had a lot of conviction on those would have been if you know, in top seven, not just the top 23. And those games look really good. And then all of a sudden they don't, right? And again, that's flips from, you know, how do you go from 11 and 11 to nine and 13? Those two games right there, right? And so you know, again, is what it is, but when you're hitting over 60%. And our goal is to be hitting around 55 56%. Not that we're trying to necessarily lose games here. But like an expectation of a regression to the mean, has to sort of exist, but as for Alabama, it's called math. Yes. Yeah, that's right. It's called mathematics folks. try it sometime.

Sheldon: 1:03:52

Speaking of math, how about math? That just doesn't make any sense? How about algebra and x factors that absolutely make no sense. Like, I'd love to come on and be like, hey, like, I'm sorry, we didn't catch the Texas a&m win over Alabama as part of like a money line or something. Right? Like the NC State Clemson game, for example. Yeah, like the difference being like, we knew what we were going to get at NC State. Nobody saw this coming not just not from Texas a&m because they have the dude's right. There was a reason they were preseason top five team because people look at the recruiting and the offense and the defense and go Okay, like this team can compete like maybe for that fourth spot in the college football playoff. And then we see Zach cansada play for a bunch of weeks, and we go this guy's going to get destroyed, right? Like this guy can barely complete a pass and it gets slightly better against mississippi state but like they lose that home to Mississippi State in a game that like we predicted that they would, right and so the idea of, you know, a week after being on the Mississippi State money line at Texas a&m to then

Matt: 1:05:00

Just go yup Texas a&m is absolutely going to beat Alabama or even be in the game with Alabama right where again you watch that quarterback play for a handful of games and you just go like yeah I'm not sure like they're good he's gonna turn the ball over it's gonna be a sack fumble like fast out there and like yeah the Texas a&m defense is pretty good but like it's still Alabama's offense right and like you and I talked like Bryce young and all that sort of thing and just all the weapons that he has around him like again 17 It's a lot of points like wasn't a game that I was looking to bet but we obviously have you know, talked about that game in advance. But it's like, all of a sudden Zack cansada is really good against Alabama like that's the team that he's going to show out.

Sheldon: 1:05:47

Like it's incredible like it isn't just a 17 point underdog, right in the same way that like you know, Oregon was a 14 point underdog to Ohio State, but it's like it's Oregon, veteran quarterback like good defense like all of these things that like you could make the case for Oregon based on what we know about Oregon as a program and the players on that team. And then it's just a matter of like them execute like, right come on here like Zach ELLs Zack Kel sada is going to light up the Alabama defense like shutting that podcast off and like deleting it and like never going back right now if it comes through and we get to replay that clip in social media stuff then like yeah there's maybe there's a parade outside of my house. But you know, so we can sort of complain but that point of all of this to say is the futures for Alabama like they go from like a plus one something all the way down to plus 240 right so as much as it's a shocker, it's a shocker because it shows Alabama can be beat by somebody other than Georgia right which and it's funny because we talked a lot literally in this episode last week, but like I think Georgia is going to beat Alabama right? And if the headline was just Alabama's going to lose that would have been nice because they literally did then you know a few days later right we had Alabama is going to lose to Georgia later on in the season. The interesting part is is if they do lose to Georgia now in the SEC championship game does a two loss Alabama get in the playoff right. And like maybe because of all of the other stuff that we're seeing right like Oklahoma just keeps hanging on by a thread they're not really sure what you don't mean like it's funny because in years past you go Okay, well, no two up to us. Alabama doesn't get in. And that's how they have not gotten in. They haven't made every single College Football Playoff, even though it kind of feels like that right the year LSU won the win the title just two years ago, Alabama was not in the college football playoff because they had two losses. But that was a year where Alice use undefeated and Clemson's undefeated and Ohio State is undefeated and all these teams are undefeated and it's like okay, so of course a two loss Alabama team isn't going to make it but everybody in the PAC 10 has got a PAC 12 excuse me showing my exec Pac 12 has a loss right Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are undefeated but like I don't know how much long either of those teams are going to last from an undefeated standpoint um you know Iowa right hands Penn State the loss but like are we positive Iowa is the best team in the in the big 10 and Ohio State already has a loss so like the comparisons might you know you're like the other competition might not be there it certainly helps Cincinnati potentially but again, if they it doesn't matter because if they lose they're gonna get booted out anyway because they don't have any you know, sort of you know, their their high wire act exists for the rest of this season where they don't get any sort of credit if they lose so yeah, like I don't know that I'm not looking to bet Alabama because it's a plus 240 price tag because there is that universe where they lose that second game and now they're out it's just this season feels like a year where you're going to shoehorn a two loss Alabama team in there you know because they lost on the road to Texas a&m and they lost the you know they lose the SEC championship game so it's not necessarily actionable but like it's just it helps to define what all of this means because we're you know, sometimes we're used to sort of seeing a team lose and being like well they're out right because it's college football and like there's you know, normally five other teams that are undefeated that's this year like that just hasn't been that case right we don't have that laundry list of high quality teams that are undefeated throw Notre Dame into that mix, right we always sort of kind of forget about them because they're not affiliated necessarily with a conference right they've already got a loss right so all these teams have a loss already. So it just puts Alabama kinda on the same platform as all of them so doesn't really change anything in the immediacy but would be really interesting if they ended up losing down the stretch here one more time. I can't wait to see how that plays out. And another thing you know we talked about, we talked a lot about the Red River rivalry already talked about Penn

Matt: 1:10:00

In Iowa already one thing we haven't really touched on that I know you love to touch on each every week is the Heisman watch. Yeah How yeah kind of flip it's going to just drive me nuts until sort of the worm eventually turns here right because it's the same topic every week. Bryce young Matt corral that crowds in a game that's 52 to 51 and like you needed a real come down after Ole Miss and and Arkansas what was happening Wow, Texas and Oklahoma was happening. I made a joke that like if you had your two screens on those two games, which you should have, like you need like lessons in like re entering society after that point, right? Like don't you got it like find your find some air? Essentially? Listen, like the Bryce young thing, right? Like, they lose this game. And like he doesn't change the odds don't change, right? Like they I mean, I guess they changed a little bit, but it's still him. And Matt crowl, who's in a 5251 game, who is 14 of 21 with two touchdowns like you think like, I was expecting chorale to be like, Oh, he threw it 35 times and he had six touchdowns and like, blah, blah, blah. No, not the case. Right? And so it's like, okay, that sort of hurts him from a statistical standpoint. Now he's gonna have plenty of statistics here going forward, but like, if they can score 50 points where he doesn't really do all that much. Is he you know, he should he be the favorite for the Heisman, Bryce. Young, like they lose that game. And again, we've talked about the idea of like, it's all weaponry for bracing. I should say it's all weaponry, right? But it's just, you know, if Matt Jones can't win the Heisman, right, then Bryce young can't, right. I just refuse to sort of believe that. And so you've got these two guys that I just refuse to believe, are appropriately priced. And we talked about Bijon Robinson last week. And that worked out well, for the first half, got a little sketchier in the second half, but he went from 40 to one down to 12 to one, which is all we can ask for in one game, right to sort of pick out a guy in that pack who let's just shoot him into the mix here. Now we'll need some more big games. That'll be john Robinson. And like he had some outstanding runs, there was one that was like a full on Heisman run where he was just short to the end zone. And then they didn't even give it to him for the for the one yard touchdown, you're like, that was really close to like the Heisman moment, the Heisman clip, but he didn't quite get there. So he moves to 12 to one Obviously, we've talked about return at 61 have moving into that 12 to one range. So we sort of have those two guys surrounded, right and Kenneth Geiger and CJ Stroud are in the mix. But again, like, it's Ohio State quarterback syndrome, right. I just don't think any of them are ever that that good. They're always going to put up numbers because they're in that system. KENNETH Walker looks outstanding for Michigan State. But who knows how that's gonna play out over the course of the rest of the big 10 schedule. And so it comes back, we talked about them last week, Kenny, pick it 40 to one, he's still a 41 because he didn't play last week. And they have a high profile game at Virginia Tech, basically, to see who will take the reins of the ACC, in their division. And we talked about the idea of like, if he wins that game, and they get to the acc championship, where they talk about the stats 19 to one in touchdowns, two interceptions. And he was before his bye week, he was fourth in the country in yards. So the stats are all there. Again, nobody really talking about this guy necessarily. But he's going to get some high profile games, I believe the Clemson game is coming up as well. So Kenny Pickett is the next guy at 42. One that we could wake up, you know, on this show next Tuesday, and he might be a guy who's down to the 10 to one type of a range. And then it's just a matter of filling in the rest of your resume where Ritter puts up a bunch of, you know, points and a bunch of stats over the course of his conference season. And Bijon Robinson does the same. And it's sort of the running back representative from that group, you know, he just needs to sort of be better than Kenneth Walker to get invited to the Heisman ceremony, and then potentially Kenny pick, it just ends up being the guy who makes it to the acc championship game puts up a ton of points, and a ton of stats and ends up kind of getting involved maybe in a potential number one draft pick or top quarterback in the draft, I think, because I think that's very much up for grabs, right? And that's part of it, too, where you start getting the NFL guys who start paying attention and go Okay, well, who is going to be the top quarterback because right now people make the case for corral. And again, it's not that I don't see it, he's obviously a great player, but like, I just don't believe he should be favored as high as he is right now, when there's a bunch of sort of options that we kind of want to just surround him with. And if things continue to sort of dip for him and young, then we'll have sort of two or three guys in our portfolio that can jump in there.

Sheldon: 1:14:36

Now I totally got you man. And super interesting as we continue to navigate and I know where if you've been following along the pod since the start of the season, knowing where you came from with these numbers and then how much they're changing. It's super cool to get that update each and every week. The other thing I want to get updated on is some football picks. So it's kind of raced through a couple of years because I noticed we have more NCAA picks to make midweek than we normally do.

Matt: 1:15:00

So let's get through those. We've got Appalachian State minus five at Louisiana laka. Yet, with chatter you lean in here. Listen, I'm on. I'm on Lafayette here like I'm on Louisiana, the raging Cajuns, I grabbed it a plus three and a half. It's up to five. Again, this is just fundamentals isn't the first time I've said this on the podcast. I just don't love app state that much, right. And they got away with one against Marshall a couple of weeks ago on a Thursday night game fun to have the fun belt going on a Tuesday. And this is, this is a big game in that league. And I know not necessarily, you know, people aren't necessarily locked into this sort of, you know, group of five conference battles and that sort of thing, right? But like, it matters to these kids, right? It matters to these kids on whether like this game is this sort of rivalry game in the Sunbelt? Because these teams have been competing for the title for the last few years, right? These are the two powers in that conference. And so I'm going to take notes, I already took three and a half, like five would work for me. I you know, again, I might be missing something. And maybe there's something in like the injury report that I haven't necessarily caught because, you know, we're just coming off of a weekend here where there's a lot. I'll dig into that a little bit further, but like, even if there is right, even if the quarterback is out for Louisiana, like I still like them from an infrastructure standpoint with the points, they will find a way to lose probably because they always kind of do against app state. But I'm going to take the points here and like the more the merrier. I don't know I don't know why necessarily. This is up to five. It's a little bit confusing from that standpoint. Thursday, we got a couple of games, right? Georgia, Southern South Alabama, more fun belt action, maybe a little less fun in that department. I don't know what you know, Georgia Southern, probably they should have won that game, but they just didn't show up for the first half last week, I'm probably gonna end up taking the points there plus three with Georgia Southern because again, that offense, you know, triple option that travels again, if that game was I had a fifth quarter in it last week, they probably beat Troy and then navy and Memphis. I'm out on Memphis. I like enough of this Memphis team. Like I've been on and off and on and off and I'm just enough on this Navy starting to get a little bit figured out. And they're getting 10 and a half points. I'm going to be on Navy getting the 10 and a half points on Thursday night as well. So three plays, not necessarily a ton of conviction. But it's weekdays right? And we got to have something going on some of these games. So taking the points in all three, unlike last week, where if you're saying you know hey, like you always just take the points. Last week we were on the favorites in pretty much every game Thursday and Friday and that worked out well. Let's go the other way this week with the dogs.

Sheldon: 1:17:38

Well, that's the NCAA story. But as we switch to the NFL, we got a pretty solid matchup between the eagles and the Bucs. And as always, For more on this Don't forget to head to DRF comm slash sports for a full preview from our guys, Scott Grambling, who writes in part, the Eagles have recently thrived as a home underdog going five and two against the spread over the last seven times they've gotten points at Lincoln financial field. Now Scott's always been giving us great insight. So of course, make sure you head to the website and read all of his game previews at DRF comm slash sports. But the reason I bring this up here is because that stat is very important as the books are going to said, Lincoln financial field, and they are seven point favorites to the Eagles. Who do you like in this matchup? bucks or the Eagles? seven point dogs? Yeah, it's not that fun. It's not because they got the number here is pretty right, right? Like I have it at like 6.5. Basically, for the bucks, right? Which you know, not that surprising, it's bumped up to seven because if you give, you know, if you put a number out that six and a half people are going to take the bucks. And now you're sort of like having getting caved in on a Thursday with bucks money. And if the if the money wants to keep coming in on bucks minus seven, and books want to bump this up to seven and a half then like yeah, I'll come in and I'll take the Eagles because just from a mathematical standpoint, right, that becomes a lot more valuable. Do I necessarily think that's going to be the case, I think there's enough sort of sharp money if you will out there to sort of keep this in check. I'm going to use the Q word here. I thought the dolphins quit in that game against the Bucs last week and I don't say that lightly, but like that was atrocious, atrocious, we might have to start thinking listen to a talk about what comes back, whatever we'll talk about that you know, in the coming weeks, but like

Matt: 1:19:33

as much as he Okay, like the Buccaneers like looked so good. It's like they made a couple of really, really tight plays right Brady made some tight throws that you know, created some touchdowns and whatnot in that first half, but like the score was sort of manipulated by the concept of the dolphins just kind of given up in that game. And again, maybe it's because brissette was all banged up and they couldn't move the ball offensively. I like to think Jalen hertz will have a little bit more successful again you know it's a rookie head coach it's a you know relatively green pardon the sort of you know inference quarterback on a Thursday night like yes they're at home and it's betting against Tom Brady and like how much fun is that necessarily going to be answer is not very much fun. So you know, but like we saw and again who knows what the Chiefs necessarily are right like we have to start sort of reframing what they are but like the Eagles just played the chiefs and like they hung in that game and like their back door was open and all of that sort of stuff, but like, I just don't know that that's necessarily the case here. So like, I'm going to need this number to get a little bit out of control. I'm going to need it to get pushed through seven Tabak the Eagles here which again not remotely fun at all from a Thursday maybe something else pops up from my prop or a total standpoint which again if you follow me on twitter you'll be able to see that for a sort of Best Bets concept on Thursday but yeah, from a side standpoint there's no there's no side here that I'm dying to back here because I don't really want to lace seven with the Buccaneers on the road here either yeah it's a it's a tough one and that's how I look at that I'm kind of with you here where I'm hoping that it'll be easier to make said bet on Thursday when you know all the regular Joe money starts trickling in and it's like oh yeah it's Thursday there's a game tonight yeah

Sheldon: 1:21:29

cuz that's normally where I'm at I'm gonna be honest with you right out yeah I read on that side so Hey, no shame is my you know don't forget Don't forget teaser protection too right we talked about the idea right at minus seven right now right a tease down to minus one looks very inviting if you bump this line up to nine right all of a sudden teaser down to three you know isn't as inviting so you know, like if you're a sports book like I think I'm probably more comfortable making this number of getting this number up to nine and taking my chances that a bunch of like eagles money is going to come in but they're probably waiting for that bucks money to come in first in order to offset it right so the first 100 bets that you see are the bucks you know coming in you'll be pretty quick to move in order to make that 100 bets back up if you're smart I know I got you I got you and that's why we love talking to you not once but twice a week to make sure we're getting all the information we need so that we're armed as we make our bets each and every week Mr. Matt Russell Where can the people find you online my dude yeah at Mrs. Authentic is the Twitter feed everything that I do over at the score, the app that's in your phone is getting retweeted over there so we talk money lines the stuff that we don't talk about you right money lines, teasers, that sort of thing. Everything you can find there at em Russ authentic on Twitter.

Matt: 1:22:54

always appreciate you stopping by my dude Talk to you soon. Thanks, buddy.

Sheldon: 1:23:01

like to thank Matt for coming through on the pod once again. And if you want to follow me online, you could do so on Instagram at Sheldon Alexander and on Twitter at Shell Alexander. But for more from this brand new project from DRF sports head to DRF comm slash sports. Now if you're not familiar with the letters DRF daily racing form has been around for over 100 years, giving you all of your horse racing information, data and analysis. But now they're taking over the entire sports world. So if you want coverage on every football game, as well as the NBA MLB and more had to DRF comm slash sports for all the details and insights. The site has all the data on every single game, including offensive defensive stats, bending angles, line movements, key injuries, head to head records and team stats. The DRF data is what powers our power trends. So if you want to see which trends our analysts have selected, follow us on Instagram and on Twitter. If you want access to the raw data, make sure you go to DRF comm slash sports. That's where you get the usual previews every single day. Plus we go into the games in depth on this podcast. Basically, however you want your betting information, we've got you covered. Again, my name is Sean Alexander and that's all we've got for you right now. But remember to tune in to this the DRF sports podcast twice a week, Tuesdays and Fridays. That's all we got for now. But until next time, see.

Unknown: 1:24:35

Thanks for listening to the DRF sports podcast. Please subscribe rate and review the show. For more sports betting advice go to DRF comm backslash sports and follow on Twitter at DRF underscore sports

Episode 11: Football Weekend Review, Thursday Night NFL Picks

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