Stanley Cup Finals Game 5: Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

By Max Sacco
Colorado Avalanche center Nazem Kadri (91) celebrates with teammates after scoring the game winning goal against the Tampa Bay Lightning during overtime in game four of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final at Amalie Arena.
© Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
  • Playoffs Game 5
    06/24 8:15 PM ET
    6-105 o
    6-115 u

The Colorado Avalanche are one win away from clinching their third ever Stanley Cup if they can defeat the Tampa Bay Lighting in game five of the Stanley Cup Finals. Puck drop is scheduled for 8PM EST in Colorado with the game airing on ABC. Colorado are -180 favorites while Tampa Bay is a +145 underdog.


With a goal eerily reminiscent of Patrick Kane in the 2010 finals, Nazem Kadri scored without lighting the goal lamp to give the Avalanche a 3-1 series lead. In net, Darcy Kuemper posted 37 saves on 39 shots, the most he’s saved during this year's playoffs. The Avalanche have a huge advantage at home going with only two losses at home, both of which were in the second round against St. Louis. Historically, teams with a 3-1 lead have gone 35-1 in winning the Stanley Cup Final with only the 1942 Maple Leafs successfully completing the near impossible comeback. 

Tampa Bay find themselves in a VERY unfamiliar spot down 3-1 in the series. Amidst the skid, the Lightning have looked lethal, especially in game four where they scored the first goal of the game less than one minute in and only allowed two regulation goals over two games. In net, Andrei Vasilevskiy continued his top performances with 34 saves on 37 shots, including a cross crease save early in overtime. Tampa Bay has not lost a playoff series since the first round of the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs when the Blue Jackets upset them 4-0. 


With the over set at 6 goals (-108), take the over for this game. Three of four games have gone over six goals with Colorado covering the over six prop in their only game five this postseason and five out of eight home games this postseason. An alternate line of “Over 6.5 goals” (+155) is a viable bet as well.  

Looking for a goalscorer to take, Nazem Kadri of the Avalanche scored in game four and has not missed a beat since returning from injury with goals in two of his previous four games. In his one home regular season game against the Bolts, Kadri also got onto the scoresheet, albeit with an assist. Take him as an anytime goalscorer at +163. 


Erik Cernak is listed as day-to-day for the Lightning after leaving game four early while Colorado has no new injuries to report. 


Down 3-1 with their backs against the wall, Tampa Bay needs a miracle in Colorado to keep their three-peat hopes alive. For Tampa, they will need a huge performance from Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman. When the duo both register a point, the Lightning have won as evident in their 6-2 game three win. They will need huge performances upfront and on defense, but they could steal game five to force game six back in Tampa Bay.


Ahead 3-1 and a chance to clinch the cup on home ice for the first time since 2001, the Av’s have everything they need to win. Darcy Keumper showed in game four when he is on his game, he can stop nearly anything. Colorado also has the benefit of home ice where during the regular season they went 32-5-4. At home where they are near unbeatable and Keumper who has returned to top form, Colorado will have their name etched a third time on Lord Stanley. 

BEST OVERALL BET: Over 6.5 Goals +155

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