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Wild Card Weekend: Patriots at Bills Betting Preview

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Patriots head coach Bill Belichick
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick knows the Bills extremely well.
David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
  • 01/15 8:15 PM ET
    Spread
    ML
    Score
    143NENE(6)
    43
    160
    17
    144BUFBUF(3)
    -4.5
    -180
    47

Three things you should know before betting on Patriots-Bills:

1. The road squad has gotten the best of this head-to-head series in recent years, with the home team having gone 5-11 straight-up and 2-12-2 against the spread in games between the Patriots and Bills since the start of the 2014 season. New England is 7-1 both straight-up and against the spread over its past seven trips to Buffalo, and the Patriots are 19-3 straight-up and 16-5-1 against the spread on the road against the Bills under head coach Bill Belichick.

2. The Bills and Patriots were the only NFL teams to allow an average of fewer than 190 passing yards per game during the 2021 regular season: Buffalo allowed an average of 163 passing yards while New England surrendered an average of 187.1. The Bills ranked ninth among NFL teams in passing offense, throwing for an average of 252 yards per game, which ranked five spots ahead of a Patriots passing game that averaged 226.9 passing yards per game during the regular season. Since the start of 2019, NFL home favorites of between 3.5 and 10 points that are outgaining opponents by an average of 70 or more passing yards per game are 5-18 against the spread.

3. All but two of the 11 January games New England has played dating back to New Year’s Day 2017 have gone Over the total, with an average of 52.2 total points having been scored in the 11 games. After having started the 2021 regular season with four straight games that went Under the total, the Patriots went Over in nine of their final 13 games. The only one of the past five meetings between these teams that went Under the total was when New England attempted only three passes in a 14-10 victory at Buffalo in early December.

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