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Titans at Patriots Betting Preview

Published on 11/27/2021
By Scott Gramling
Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel
Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel has been excellent for the Titans.
George Walker IV / Tennessean.com / USA TODAY NETWORK
11/28 1:00 PM ET
Spread
ML
Score
251
TEN
TEN
43.5
230
13
252
NE
NE
-7
-280
36

Three things you need to know before betting on Titans-Patriots:

1. Despite being a 6.5-point underdog for each of the two games these teams have played against each other since Mike Vrabel took over as the Titans’ head coach, Tennessee won both games outright: a 34-10 home victory in November 2018 and a 20-13 playoff win in Foxboro in January 2020. The Titans are 6-1 straight-up and 5-2 against the spread over the past seven times that they’ve faced an AFC opponent on the road. All but one of those seven games went Over the total, as the Titans scored 30 or more points in six of the seven while averaging 34.6 points over the seven games. An average of 59.6 total points were scored over those seven games.

2. Tennessee is an impressive 10-2 straight-up and 11-1 against the spread as a regular-season underdog of 4 or more points under Vrabel. The two straight-up losses among the 11 games both came in 2018, which was Vrabel’s first season at the helm. The first was a 20-19 loss as a 7-point underdog to the Chargers in London when L.A. safety Adrian Phillips—now a part of the Patriots’ secondary—tipped Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota's pass on a two-point conversion attempt after the Titans scored a touchdown with 35 seconds remaining; the second was a 33-17 loss to the Colts in the 2018 regular-season finale. Since the start of 2019, Tennessee is 7-0 both straight-up and against the spread as a regular-season underdog of 4 or more points, and they’ve outscored opponents by an average margin of 11.6 points over the seven games. Five of the seven games went Over the total, with the lone exceptions being Tennessee’s 27-3 upset of the Chiefs last month and the team’s 28-16 upset of the Rams earlier this month.

3. New England’s defense has been the key to the team’s recent success, specifically the pass defense: The Patriots have allowed an average of 169.6 passing yards per game over their current five-game win streak. Their past two games have been particularly impressive, as New England held Cleveland to 118 passing yards in a 45-7 home victory four days prior to holding Atlanta to 125 yards through the air in a 25-0 road win. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, however, is just 2-7 against the spread in his career when coming off back-to-back games of allowing 150 or fewer passing yards, which includes a 1-4 against-the-spread record in games played at home.

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